Month Out....

ThunderNocked

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We've got about a month before draw results, who is excited and who already has plans?!?

I'm looking towards August and September with trepidation - my wife has at least 1 if not 2 weddings so I know i'm already loosing Labor Day weekend. I'll be looking to put together another Moose hunt in September and I'm wanting to get out for Dall's in August.

Then October I am going on a 'big' Caribou Hunt with a couple of guys. We will be flying out for a week, even though now they are saying they might go early for 10 days - I wont have the time to extend.

What does everybody else have going on for 2021?!
 

wllm1313

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Application and result season, highest highs followed by lowest lows.

I applied for everything I can hunt without a guide in AK... but I think my best chance other than black bear was 2% so not holding my breath.

99% chance I will be headed up there in sept to schlep boats and tents on one of my buddies hunts, but I'm totally fine with that.
 

ThunderNocked

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Application and result season, highest highs followed by lowest lows.

I applied for everything I can hunt without a guide in AK... but I think my best chance other than black bear was 2% so not holding my breath.

99% chance I will be headed up there in sept to schlep boats and tents on one of my buddies hunts, but I'm totally fine with that.
I didn't apply down south this year - too many plans. I plan to start next year. I'd like to go back to the PNW and look at some other locations. But I also need to nock off the big Alaska 5.
But I really want to get down and start looking at some lower 48 hunts.
 

wllm1313

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I didn't apply down south this year - too many plans. I plan to start next year. I'd like to go back to the PNW and look at some other locations. But I also need to nock off the big Alaska 5.
But I really want to get down and start looking at some lower 48 hunts.
Yeah I mean... my buddy has generously offered me all of his AK airline points whenever I want to visit, but has said in no uncertain terms he has no desire to come down to the lower 48.
 

npaden

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I struggle to calculate the true odds on my applications in Alaska. On my POW black bear application it is somewhere between a 13% and 80% chance depending on how many of the applicants put in for all 6 choices for the same hunt code.

1,261 applications for 170 tags. That maths out to 13% odds. But if everyone applied with 6 of their choices then that is only 210 people and 80% of us would end up drawing.

For all my other hunts I'm somewhere in the < 2% range along with wllm1313.
 
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Jape

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Was going to apply for the TOK area, but got turned off it by some HTers suggesting it's not what is used to be. Instead, headed to the Alaska range after dall in August.
 

Bambistew

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Only put in for sheep and goats. Don't plan on drawing either one, but will figure it out if I do. We have a full plate already for the fall without draws.

@ThunderNocked a fly out caribou hunt in October? Can't say I've heard of many/anyone doing that. Sounds like an interesting hunt.
 

ThunderNocked

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Yeah I mean... my buddy has generously offered me all of his AK airline points whenever I want to visit, but has said in no uncertain terms he has no desire to come down to the lower 48.
My family is in Oregon, Washington and California
I want to come down for a Roosevelt Elk, Pronghorn and Mule Deer.

Also going to start looking at Big Horn in Oregon as well I think. I'll check out some other locations for Pronghorn and Mule Deer but I'd like to go back and get something back in Oregon/PNW. I'd love to come down and hunt - if I had more time off. Unfortunately I only get 2 weeks of paid time off a year - for 3 more years then I'll get 3 and it will open things up a little bit. But being married with 5 kids, and the time it takes to travel south, it just really isn't feasible. My wife said I should focus on getting the Alaska 5 then start looking at trips south. So that is kinda the 'plan'
Caribou, Moose, Dall, Grizz/Brown Bear and Goat.
I've got a decent Caribou Bull so I'm hoping for a bigger one this October and I'm planning on checking off a couple others on that list!
 

ThunderNocked

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I struggle to calculate the true odds on my applications in Alaska. On my POW black bear application it is somewhere between a 13% and 80% chance depending on how many of the applicants put in for all 6 choices for the same hunt code.

1,261 applications for 170 tags. That maths out to 13% odds. But if everyone applied with 6 of their choices then that is only 210 people and 80% of us would end up drawing.

For all my other hunts I'm somewhere in the < 2% range along with wllm1313.
Yeah, the numbers are hard to calculate for sure. Good luck, I put in for less then normal this year because of the Late Caribou hunt.
POW Black Bear should be great. I know a guy who goes down every year to two years and loves it down there, need to figure out how to get in on that trip. Good luck!
 

npaden

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I forgot about my moose application. I messed up on my party app for black bear so they switched it to moose for me. Ended up applying for Minto Flats. Looks like odds are 8%+ for that one.

That adds another layer of complexity to the drawing odds, party apps. Seems like there are a lot of party apps. So if my son and I are on a party app with 6 choices is that counting in the 1,261 applications as 12 or 6? I know we only have 6 chances, but not sure how they count it in the total.
 

ThunderNocked

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Was going to apply for the TOK area, but got turned off it by some HTers suggesting it's not what is used to be. Instead, headed to the Alaska range after dall in August.
I don't think its not what it used to be, but from the research and talking with the hunters I've talked too the last couple winters did a number on the Alaska Range sheep - most of the guys I know are saying that we lost a lot of sheep due to winter die off and predation from the previous two winters.
 

wllm1313

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I struggle to calculate the true odds on my applications in Alaska. On my POW black bear application it is somewhere between a 13% and 80% chance depending on how many of the applicants put in for all 6 choices for the same hunt code.

I put all 6 choice for POW 3 years and didn’t draw.

Like an idiot I did math out the odds one time for all my applications across all the states, the odds were overwhelmingly in my favor to draw something ~97% or something... and yet lol
 

ThunderNocked

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Only put in for sheep and goats. Don't plan on drawing either one, but will figure it out if I do. We have a full plate already for the fall without draws.

@ThunderNocked a fly out caribou hunt in October? Can't say I've heard of many/anyone doing that. Sounds like an interesting hunt.
I did a Moose and Sheep - I wanted to do goat but this year with my limited time I was looking for minimal time useage unfortunately. We are flying south of the interior.
 

npaden

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Yeah, the numbers are hard to calculate for sure. Good luck, I put in for less then normal this year because of the Late Caribou hunt.
POW Black Bear should be great. I know a guy who goes down every year to two years and loves it down there, need to figure out how to get in on that trip. Good luck!
I've been on POW twice now for black bear. Seen plenty of bears each time I've been. My first trip I drew blood but didn't ever find him but my hunting partner got his. Second trip we both got nice bears. Hoping to draw and find a nice bear for my son.
 

ThunderNocked

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I put all 6 choice for POW 3 years and didn’t draw.

Like an idiot I did math out the odds one time for all my applications across all the states, the odds were overwhelmingly in my favor to draw something ~97% or something... and yet lol
WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT! HAHA

plausible deniability...... :D
 

Bambistew

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I forgot about my moose application. I messed up on my party app for black bear so they switched it to moose for me. Ended up applying for Minto Flats. Looks like odds are 8%+ for that one.

That adds another layer of complexity to the drawing odds, party apps. Seems like there are a lot of party apps. So if my son and I are on a party app with 6 choices is that counting in the 1,261 applications as 12 or 6? I know we only have 6 chances, but not sure how they count it in the total.
You can look up the the pre-draw applicant list, and sort it by number applications for a particular permit. No way of knowing how many times they each apply for a certain permit, but if you know the total number of applicants, and the proclamation shows the "total" applications for the permit you can get a sense.
 

npaden

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You can look up the the pre-draw applicant list, and sort it by number applications for a particular permit. No way of knowing how many times they each apply for a certain permit, but if you know the total number of applicants, and the proclamation shows the "total" applications for the permit you can get a sense.
Thanks. Took a bit to find last years numbers but looks like there were 405 applicants and 1,261 applications.

So looks like a little over 3 applications per applicant on average.

That looks like that would be 42% on sheer applicants (170/405). Not really sure how to do the math from there. I'm a CPA, not a mathematician!

I would think we would have a little better chance since we did 6 applications, but not sure how much more of a chance that gives us.
 

wllm1313

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Thanks. Took a bit to find last years numbers but looks like there were 405 applicants and 1,261 applications.

So looks like a little over 3 applications per applicant on average.

That looks like that would be 42% on sheer applicants (170/405). Not really sure how to do the math from there. I'm a CPA, not a mathematician!

I would think we would have a little better chance since we did 6 applications, but not sure how much more of a chance that gives us.
A beer says you draw and I don’t lol
 

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