Montana ridiculousness- Pref point debacle
- Thread starter POk3s
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brocksw
Well-known member
last year it did. 70% of 0 point applicants drew and 35% percent out of like 15k applicants drew with 1 pt. But that leaves at least 10k applicants that should have 2 pts in this years draw. All those that didn't draw with 0 pts last year will be starting over again this year.
I have to imagine that’s going to change this year…or catch back up to itself. It only makes sense that last year was an anomaly based on the numbers. But if there’s more people with 2 points that will soak up all the combo tags before the 1 point guys then maybe I haven’t a clue what I’m talking about.
So there we go. Does a guy sit out 2 years and get the sure thing…or gamble every year on drawing the combo with 0 or 1 point. Who the hell knows.
So there we go. Does a guy sit out 2 years and get the sure thing…or gamble every year on drawing the combo with 0 or 1 point. Who the hell knows.
Mallardsx2
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One thing I have learned about Montana for sure is that if you want to try and draw Montana you better go for points everywhere else and have OTC as a backup plan for somewhere....You have limited predictability with Montana. It might as well be a random draw completely.
Edwin
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brocksw
Well-known member
That's basically what it comes down to if this continues. If all 10k of the 1 pointers that didn't draw enter again this year, I'm inclined to think the entire non-resident pref point draw will be eaten up by those carrying 2+ points. The only chance you'll have to hunt this year if you don't have 2 points will be to apply with 0 so you enter the random 25% draw. But if that 25% pool increases, then the odds there will go down as well. Regardless of who draws, everybody with 2+ points and everyone who entered the 0 point draw will walk into app season 2023 with 0 points.
BlakeA
Well-known member
You can no longer just purchase PP in consecutive years without applying. You will lose your points.
SON OF A B**** !!!
This is starting to sound a lot like the outfit I work for. They all must sit at a round table trying to think of all the ways they can make this as hard as possible!!!
I guess that makes it pretty easy then. I apply, gamble, and don’t plan. “Hope isn’t a plan” but it appears with this game, consecutive years of hoping is the only way it’s going to work…..until they change it next year.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
isn't that what the whole crazy system they got going is about at the end of the day? I really hope I burn my elk points this year. I couldn't see a State screwing it up this bad if they tried I swear to God!
There is 0% chance that you will draw with 1pp this year. Your odds of drawing with 2pp won't be 100% either guessing around 75-80% based off the last years trend.
The worst part is your odds of getting a returned tag with 2pp is probably 100% thus taking your PP and you cant even get into the LE drawing.
The worst part is your odds of getting a returned tag with 2pp is probably 100% thus taking your PP and you cant even get into the LE drawing.
brocksw
Well-known member
Well, it's not certain that it's 0, but could be. Depends on how many of the 1 pointers from last year apply again this year with 2 pts and how many people who didn't apply, but just bought a point, apply this year. The FWP statistician is still expecting 2 points to be 100% success. We'll find out if he's right...
Big game Combo:
12,883 tags availabe
309 with 3pp (roughly 300 has been the average the last 3 years)
12600 available for 2pp
10585 didn't draw with 1pp last year so now have 2pp.
Outfitters say they take about 25-30% of licenses annually say its 20% of the 12600 is 2520 of the applicants will have 2pp to start just by welfare.
So you have 10585 DIY people plus the 2520 outfitter welfare tags is 13105 for the 12600 at 2pp. Making your odds 96% without even figuring in the people who just bought a point last year, with plans of applying with 2pp this year.
Looking at the past 3 years there's roughly 1000 people that are buying a pt and not applying with 1 and waiting for 2pp.
So if you add the 1000 average growth you have 14000 people applying for 12600 tags odds of 90%. So my 75-80% might have been low probably closer to 90% odds with 2pp.
However, I feel the real kick in the shorts is you will almost be 100% to lose your PP when you pull a leftover tag.
12,883 tags availabe
309 with 3pp (roughly 300 has been the average the last 3 years)
12600 available for 2pp
10585 didn't draw with 1pp last year so now have 2pp.
Outfitters say they take about 25-30% of licenses annually say its 20% of the 12600 is 2520 of the applicants will have 2pp to start just by welfare.
So you have 10585 DIY people plus the 2520 outfitter welfare tags is 13105 for the 12600 at 2pp. Making your odds 96% without even figuring in the people who just bought a point last year, with plans of applying with 2pp this year.
Looking at the past 3 years there's roughly 1000 people that are buying a pt and not applying with 1 and waiting for 2pp.
So if you add the 1000 average growth you have 14000 people applying for 12600 tags odds of 90%. So my 75-80% might have been low probably closer to 90% odds with 2pp.
However, I feel the real kick in the shorts is you will almost be 100% to lose your PP when you pull a leftover tag.
brocksw
Well-known member
That matches my line of thinking. I'm just not sure if the actual applicants will settle out that way. Usually, there's some year to year variability that can't be accounted for.
MT needs to dump this dual point format. Go to bonus points for general tags and LE permits. It would make so much of this easier and more predictable, as well as give people with less points a shot. The pref points with the addition of the 25% random draw messes this up. Throw in the outfitter welfare, and its even more messed up.
100% truth! I don't expect to draw every year greatful for the last 7 years of being able to hunt in MT. I would like to be able to plan a little though. After applying in WY this year it is so nice!
The only skewed part of your thinking, I believe. (Hell I don’t even know if I know…what I know anymore) is that they allocate 25% of the tags for those with 0 preference points. Basically a separate draw for those of “us” with 0 preference points to still have a chance.
Unless they’re changing that as well. I drew last year with 0 points and had friends not draw with 2 points
Unless they’re changing that as well. I drew last year with 0 points and had friends not draw with 2 points
I did know that I was just using the numbers from the people with PP. The 25% allotment, I do like. Makes it a place people who don't want to fork over the extra $ to still have a chance. That extra $200-300 can be a deal breaker for a lot of folks so being able to let them have a chance is good imo. It does suck trying to "plan" with that in there though. Like @brocksw has said it makes it hard to decide if you chance it with 0pp and put yourself 2yrs behind if you don't draw or just start building PP.
Kiwi
Well-known member
Well I have 2 preference points now and plan to buy other ($100) when I apply so surely I'm still 100% odds. Thinking I will also try for an archery elk tag in the old 900-20 area.
Any chance outfitters see a big uptick in applications and screw it up even more? Not sure if they put some kind of caps in place. What happens if apply for outfitter, 2 points and dont draw can i go DIY next year with my 3rd drawing...this system is so f$%-ked, you can rest assured if max points is 3 thats what it will take to draw in just a few years
Another thing I’ve yet to get a concrete answer from is if that point you buy goes on this years application or just means you gain the preference point when you apply and you’re unsuccessful.
We’re all just throwing darts at the wall here.
D
Deleted member 20812
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Think Leo Getz.
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