Math is hard... Montana Drawing Odds

[Cornell2012]

Even this isn't 100% accurate since, as pointingdogs stated, this isn't a random drawing and the winners are removed from the draw along with all of their chances. So your actual odds are going to be slightly better than the calculation above, but since we have no way of knowing who is going to be drawn in the actual drawing, much less the bonus points that the lucky winners hold, the calculation above will get you a respectable number.

Does that help? You probably now want to bang your head against the wall....

Everything he did looks good. In the past I set up a somewhat basic simulation and set it to run 100 thousand times (Turns out you can get reasonably close by running it far less than that too.). That saved me difficult math at the cost of tying up my background computer processes for a while.

 

[Elkwhisper]

I used to pour over the numbers and try and figure it all out....... That is until a 2 good friends pointed out that in most / many cases the odds are so low ( at least for M/S/G) that lightning needs to strike to draw any tag, so you might as well just put in for the unit you want to hunt and cross your fingers... I have to say I kind of called BS on the whole "well somebody has to draw it" theory. At least I did until one of those friends pulled the hardest goat tag in the state, and the other killed a 200"+ breaks ram. So this year, I am putting in for the tags I want... not the odds I want. And we will see where the chips land.

 

[BrowningBLR]

Any elk permit or MSG that you want, you will have less than a 1% chance of drawing regardless of "squared points". Put your name in the hat and be done with it.

 

[Straight Arrow]

Sure wish the wolves, lions, and griz had to draw permits prior to their hunts.

 

[rmyoung1]

Any elk permit or MSG that you want, you will have less than a 1% chance of drawing regardless of "squared points". Put your name in the hat and be done with it.

Ummm... Not true. And because it is not true, we number nerds want to know.

 

[mtmiller]

Any elk permit or MSG that you want, you will have less than a 1% chance of drawing regardless of "squared points". Put your name in the hat and be done with it.

Prove it.

 

[HSi-ESi]

Prove it.

mtmiller, I would prefer he not prove it. I rather like this attitude.