Lumber & Paint prices - Out of Control?

[HONEYBADGER]

My wife works as a regional grocery chain manager and she has fought employment for the last year basically. Nobody wants to work they can stay home on the lucrative unemployment benefits and bring home more pay. When is this going to end? I had a buddy that took the whole spring off to turkey hunt last year and I suspect again this year while he can draw unemployment at a higher rate than his normal pay. Sad

Gradually getting people used to living off the government, making it palatable for more and more of the population as time goes on....preparing the nation as a whole for when the implement full on socialism.

 

[jryoung]

Department of Commerce to impose Tariffs on CDN lumber. Good move for US timber? Bad timing?

Lumber firms applaud, home builders angry as U.S. moves to double Canadian lumber tariffs | Woodworking Network

The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders.

www.woodworkingnetwork.com

 

[LuketheDog]

Department of Commerce to impose Tariffs on CDN lumber. Good move for US timber? Bad timing?

Lumber firms applaud, home builders angry as U.S. moves to double Canadian lumber tariffs | Woodworking Network

The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders.

www.woodworkingnetwork.com

That's crazy...Our government is trying to "rebuild the economy" and "create more affordable housing"...right?


Also crazy, proponents say this:
"Lumber only makes up 4 percent of the cost of a new home— with near-zero impact on homebuyers," the Lumber Coalition wrote in an opinion article published on Woodworking Network.

 

[mtmiller]

That's crazy...Our government is trying to "rebuild the economy" and "create more affordable housing"...right?

Canada will pay for the tariff.

 

[SAJ-99]

Department of Commerce to impose Tariffs on CDN lumber. Good move for US timber? Bad timing?

Lumber firms applaud, home builders angry as U.S. moves to double Canadian lumber tariffs | Woodworking Network

The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders.

www.woodworkingnetwork.com

It's an increase in tariffs, not the initial imposition. Previous administration put on a 20% tariff on in 2017, then reduced it to 9% in December 2020. So we had 6 months of 9% tariffs and still have a lumber shortage and higher prices. It is disingenuous to say tariffs "cause" anything or even to predict some impact. We have been fighting with Canada over lumber for 40years. Hard to think this is a the-sky-is-falling moment.

 

[Gerald Martin]

Department of Commerce to impose Tariffs on CDN lumber. Good move for US timber? Bad timing?

Lumber firms applaud, home builders angry as U.S. moves to double Canadian lumber tariffs | Woodworking Network

The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders.

www.woodworkingnetwork.com

Great plan. Material shortages and high demand have prices sky high. Putting extra tariffs on imports is a great way to bring retail prices down.
Winning.

 

[BigHornRam]

Canada will pay for the tariff.

Or invest in U S mills.

Canadian Lumber Producers to Expand U.S. Mills Amid Home Boom

North American lumber companies plan to ramp up production by expanding existing mills as strong home construction fuels the need for more wood.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[jryoung]

Or invest in U S mills.

Canadian Lumber Producers to Expand U.S. Mills Amid Home Boom

North American lumber companies plan to ramp up production by expanding existing mills as strong home construction fuels the need for more wood.

www.bloomberg.com

A tangled web we weave.

 

[BigHornRam]

Labor shortages and fiber supply are main roadblocks for Montana mills.

Lumber Prices Skyrocket During Pandemic – Montana Economist

A construction and remodeling boom has driven the demand for lumber and far exceeded the supply, causing lumber prices to rise all over the country.

www.montanabusinessquarterly.com

Pandemic still slowing down lumber production

It's common knowledge at this point that the pandemic is causing shortages. First with toilet paper, then ammunition,and now a long list of building supplies including lumber.

www.ktvh.com

 

[BigHornRam]

A tangled web we weave.

"Three letter word. J O B S."

Top 5 American Solar Panel Manufacturers In 2025

Reviewing the top USA solar panel manufacturers in 2025.

www.solarreviews.com

 

[LuketheDog]

Canada will pay for the tariff.

By "Canada" you mean "pass-through all costs to consumers", right?

 

[BigHornRam]

A lot of special interest lobbying going on, but something tells me Canada doesn't mind paying the 20% tariff to get in on the current lumber price action.

U.S. trade chief pressured to lift duties on Canadian lumber

As U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai prepares to meet her Canadian and Mexican counterparts on Monday to review progress in the new North American trade agreement, she is under pressure from home builders and lawmakers to cut U.S. tariffs on Canadian lumber.

www.reuters.com

"The tariffs are allowed under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, which permits duties to combat price dumping and unfair subsidies.

The U.S. Commerce Department has ruled that lumber from most Canadian provinces is unfairly subsidized because it is largely grown on public lands with cheap harvesting fees set by Ottawa. U.S. timber is mainly harvested from privately-owned land."

 

[BigHornRam]

Interesting conversation that covers a lot of the issues. One issue that I had considered mentioning earlier but didn't have any good information on was the the current Canadian/ US exchange rate.

There will be new bottom lumber price and 15 years of very robust building

Keta Kosman, Publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter, monitors lumber prices every day. She thinks we are in a new era for the economy. In the 1950s, there was much infrastructure b...

www.lesprom.com

"I note that the exchange rate is extremely important for Canadian exporters. It is a very big deal for sawmills because they sell in U.S. dollars and their costs are in Canadian dollars. Economics works best when the Canadian dollar is $0.75. Right now the Canadian dollar is US$0.83, which is more important than an 8% duty."

 

[SAJ-99]

Interesting conversation that covers a lot of the issues. One issue that I had considered mentioning earlier but didn't have any good information on was the the current Canadian/ US exchange rate.

There will be new bottom lumber price and 15 years of very robust building

Keta Kosman, Publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter, monitors lumber prices every day. She thinks we are in a new era for the economy. In the 1950s, there was much infrastructure b...

www.lesprom.com

"I note that the exchange rate is extremely important for Canadian exporters. It is a very big deal for sawmills because they sell in U.S. dollars and their costs are in Canadian dollars. Economics works best when the Canadian dollar is $0.75. Right now the Canadian dollar is US$0.83, which is more important than an 8% duty."

She lost me when she cited Roosevelt as president in the 50's.

 

[tjones]

" The reason that even in this circumstance the price can stay strong is because the order file at the sawmill is four weeks. If you call a sawmill right now and ask for some wood, it won't even start being produced until the end of June. It will take at least another three weeks for you to receive it."

This simply is not accurate.

 

[BigHornRam]

She lost me when she cited Roosevelt as president in the 50's.

This?

"I think we are in a new era, honestly, for the economy. If people remember the 1950s we had Diefenbaker [John George Diefenbaker, Prime Minister of Canada in 1957–1963 - Lesprom Network] and Roosevelt in the U.S. [Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the U.S. in 1933-1945 - Lesprom Network]. They were doing much infrastructure building. They put in the highway system, it was all a huge boom for the economy for two decades. We're in a similar situation right now."

The discussion was around infrastructure spending and certainly Roosevelt was big on it. That was mostly dams, roads, and bridges using concrete and steel for the most part. The 50's post war housing boom was what increased demand for lumber back then. Not sure how much the infrastructure spending they talking about now, will increase lumber demand?

Lack of fiber supply, especially in BC and trade economics was what I found to be the biggest issues regarding future lumber supplies and prices.

 

[SAJ-99]

This?

"I think we are in a new era, honestly, for the economy. If people remember the 1950s we had Diefenbaker [John George Diefenbaker, Prime Minister of Canada in 1957–1963 - Lesprom Network] and Roosevelt in the U.S. [Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the U.S. in 1933-1945 - Lesprom Network]. They were doing much infrastructure building. They put in the highway system, it was all a huge boom for the economy for two decades. We're in a similar situation right now."

The discussion was around infrastructure spending and certainly Roosevelt was big on it. That was mostly dams, roads, and bridges using concrete and steel for the most part. The 50's post war housing boom was what increased demand for lumber back then. Not sure how much the infrastructure spending they talking about now, will increase lumber demand?

Lack of fiber supply, especially in BC and trade economics was what I found to be the biggest issues regarding future lumber supplies and prices.

I was half joking. Agree. It was the post-war housing boom that drove lumber, not the Roosevelt-era infrastructure programs from the late 30's. Lumber value chain is a convoluted mess. Apparently there are plenty of logs, button not enough saws. Even regionally the problem can be different and there a bunch of intermediaries in the process. If you want lumber prices to fall, increase interest rates 100bps. Fed needs to stop its $120B/mo in purchases. Using unemployment as justification is comical. There are less than 10m people unemployed.

 

[BigHornRam]

I was half joking. Agree. It was the post-war housing boom that drove lumber, not the Roosevelt-era infrastructure programs from the late 30's. Lumber value chain is a convoluted mess. Apparently there are plenty of logs, button not enough saws. Even regionally the problem can be different and there a bunch of intermediaries in the process. If you want lumber prices to fall, increase interest rates 100bps. Fed needs to stop its $120B/mo in purchases. Using unemployment as justification is comical. There are less than 10m people unemployed.

Agree that the current interest rates are fueling most of this reckless behavior. It will catch up to us eventually. Won't be pretty when it does.

 

[shootbrownelk]

Just went and check prices today as I have a project in mind. $25/each for an 8’ 2x12.
Sheesh

I need to replace five 2"x10"x 18' planks on my car trailer. Menards wanted $87.00 each for them. Plain jane untreated pine, WTH?

 

[JoltnJoe]

$73 a sheet for treated 1/2 inch CDX here