Idaho throphy species non res odds?

[dan.kirkpatrick]

I know idaho,s is 10% non res limit on tags,,but how do they figure the draw odds for non resident?we draw with all the residents,then if the 10% cap hasnt been met,we get the tag???idahos website as well as go hunt and eastmans dont reflect this?As a non res ,if there are low tag #s on a certain hunt are we automatically eliminated?or shoud we only apply for units with at least 10 tags for a shot?Im a bit confused if somebody can explain?looks like draw odds dont fully reflect the 10%cap and how that works?

 

[Trial153]

The draws aren't separate. Residents and nonresidents draw together...Long story short you might be drawing dead because of the the cap.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

so even though some of the draw odds say 10,20 40% on certain hunts,,it doesnt look like thats fully true?once the 10% cap is met the non-res is done?kinda like a double draw? if you are some of the first drawn before the cap is met?does it mater on units with low #s?can you still draw it as a non res if the cap# hasnt been met yet?

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Non residents draw tags all the time. Take 54 for moose as an example. Last year there was at least 1 non resident that I know of that drew. There’s only 3 tags given out. The way I understand it, is that it’s 10% of the total number of tags given out.
Matt

 

[TheDudeAbides]

I know idaho,s is 10% non res limit on tags,,but how do they figure the draw odds for non resident?we draw with all the residents,then if the 10% cap hasnt been met,we get the tag???idahos website as well as go hunt and eastmans dont reflect this?As a non res ,if there are low tag #s on a certain hunt are we automatically eliminated?or shoud we only apply for units with at least 10 tags for a shot?Im a bit confused if somebody can explain?looks like draw odds dont fully reflect the 10%cap and how that works?

If a unit has 50% draw probablity and ten tags, 10 residents apply and 10 non residents apply.

As a non resident you have 50% probability to draw the one permit and after that one permit is gone then you have 0% probability to draw.

If you look from the outside.

0-1 Non Residents will draw this hunt. 0-5% of permits

9-10 Residents will draw this hunt. 90-100% of permits

10 people draw of 20 applicants. 50% probability of draw

In Idaho as a non resident, if you are not first then you are last.

If a unit has only 1 tag, then only 1 tag can be for a non resident.

If a unit has 19 tags, then only 1 tag can be for a non resident.

If a unit has 20 tags, then only 2 tags can be for a non residents.

GoHunt has a breakdown of the calculated draw odds for non residents in Idaho.

Example Unit 29 Elk - 17% for residents and 7.4% for non residents

 

[Trial153]

For trophy species The draw isn’t unit specific. All the residents and nonresident applications are combined. They are not separated by unit. It’s one draw. There are way more nonresident applications, so as soon as the the non res cap is reached ( regardless of the unit allocation) you are drawing dead. That is why you will see units that have enough tags for non resident allocation however no tag was awarded. The reason being that cap was already filled in other units.

 

[LopeHunter]

Simple odds can be found by looking at the 2018 sheep draw and adding up how many sheep tags where awarded to NR vs. how many NR applicants there were for sheep. Say is 1% when you do that calculation. That represents 1 in 100 odds to draw a sheep tag as NR. You will have to do the math to see if odds were above or below 1% for a NR in 2018. Care to guess? I have not checked in years but a decade ago odds for NR moose were higher than goat which were higher than sheep. In no case were odds for NR 40%.

Odds are a bit more complex when you attempt to drill down to a specific GMU since there is the 100% random nature of the order applicants 1st Choices are considered plus those pesky caps for NR that are the 10% species NR cap and the 10% GMU NR cap. The draw order of applicants is 100% random and yet you are only seeing a single draw result as review the 2018 data. This is where you will need to recall your studies of Statistics or have a buddy at the local University.

Idaho gives out some very useful information. You can determine how many applicants there were for each GMU. You could assign a unique number to each applicant. Let's say there is a hypothetical GMU 9876 that had 3 tags of which 1 or 0 can be awarded to a NR and there were 20 R and 5 NR that applied. We could call R applicant 1 of 20 as 1R9876 and R applicant 2 as 2R9876 etc. NR applicant 1 of 5 would be 1NR9876. Repeat for all GMUs. Now you have your data set. You know the quotas. You know the NR caps per GMU and the cap for species. You can run the draw yourself!

You could run the draw 1 time which is what the 2018 results represent. A single draw. One simulation using the data set. However, if you run the draw over and over, 1000s of times, then you have a better set of results to find the "lucky" GMUs. No need to guess. No need to look at just the actual 2018 results and maybe the 2017 to try and see a trend which, due to randomness, is not of much use for identifying "lucky."

So, do you guess at what GMU to list as your 1st Choice? Sort of since 2019 will be a different set of data, right? If you run the simulation using 2018 data a few 1000 times then you will see the odds in some GMUs are more often better for a NR than some other GMUs in that historic draw. This is not because some GMUs are lucky or some GMUs must award a NR tag. GMUs are not lucky. No GMU must award a NR tag, right? You can isolate a handful of GMUs that IF APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR does not alter much in 2019 compared to 2018 then will improve the odds you get a tag. Now, if you overlay historic harvest data then can generate a blended odds you draw AND harvest a ram.

Let's see if can see what creates lucky. Take the sheep draw from 2018 and review how many R and NR applied for the most poplar GMU. Should be easy to find that GMU as review the data. Don't share your work, here. Is a secret GMU. Is very very secret.

Okay, now let's play God and divide the 2018 sheep draw into two draws to reveal what is not a "lucky" GMU for NR. The 2018 draw results are not changed but will act as if was two draws. You can be in one or the other draw in this example after the split but not both. The first draw is only for that most popular GMU. One NR tag will be awarded. How many NR applied for that GMU in 2018? 1 NR tag was awarded. Divide 1 by that total of NR applicants for that GMU and what are those odds? We are ignoring R applicants to keep things simple and assuming 1 tag rather than the 0 tags will be awarded to NR.

Okay, feeling lucky? What was the total of NR sheep tags awarded in 2018? Reduce that number by 1 since all but the oneNR tag awarded in the popular GMU will be awarded in this second draw. How many NR applicants were there in 2018? Okay reduce that number by the NR total that applied for the popular GMU. We are ready to see some luck.

In our second hypothetical draw we see our odds improved. We found the lucky GMUs! And never looked at 2017 or 2016 to find a GMU that was giving out a tag everyone of those years so had to be lucky and odds around 40%, right?

The higher the pressure by R and by NR for each tag in a GMU and the relative pressure by NR vs R will create "lucky" GMUs. You can focus you choice on a GMU that had relatively less pressure in recent draws and ignore whether a tag was actually awarded in 2018 or 2017, etc.

Good luck. I think you will be lucky.

 

[mdhunter]

Pretty much all of the above is true. That said, I have drawn a non resident moose tag. Be realistic with your chances and stay away from the units with high demand.

 

[brymoore]

There’s some misinformation or misunderstanding on this thread but others got it right.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

so if i put in say for moose in a unit with only 5 tags,i still got a shot because if drawn early ill still be under the 10%cap rule,,i dont have to put in necessarily for units with at least 10 tags?

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

I would also asume you get the $2100 back if not drawn ,but still have to eat the $162 non-res licence and $16 tag app fee?

 

[Alabama]

I would also asume you get the $2100 back if not drawn ,but still have to eat the $162 non-res licence and $16 tag app fee?

$154.75 license fee, $10 access/depredation fee, $41.75 app fee, and $2101.75 tag fee. Add on the 3% + $3.50 online convenience fee= $69.24. $2377.49 sent to Idaho and 2101.75 refunded.

$275.74 in non-refundable fees Ouch! I've thrown my name in the hat a couple times in the past, but with the new online or phone only (and the associated fees), I'm out. Odds just got better by 1.

 

[Elkmagnet]

so if i put in say for moose in a unit with only 5 tags,i still got a shot because if drawn early ill still be under the 10%cap rule,,i dont have to put in necessarily for units with at least 10 tags?

By reading the statistics from previous years I believe you are correct to assume so.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

thanks,,thats a fairly spendy tag app for what i would guess is a 5% or so non -res chance for moose with the tag reduction this year to boot.gonna have to chew on it,but ill problably have to pass,,,bhs and goat have even lower odds than that.thanks alabama

 

[Doe Nob]

Yup, its a tough sell with the odds for any OIL. If I blank New Mexico I may consider it, but I think I'd rather buy 11 $25 tickets in a raffle tag drawing if I 'm shooting the moon.

 

[Trial153]

I generally apply for sheep every year in Idaho, the years I can actually use my license to hunt something else softens the blow quite a bit.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

I usually go for the later deer,elk antelope as a last resort and by then I usually have some of my results from other states by then,,,I might do the same again instead of thinking about moose apps.

 

[Hawk Tuah]

Idaho shows exactly how many resident and nonres apps for each specific gmu for every year...that is good information.The odds are not bad for many moose units, especially up north.

As a resident, I do get a little frustrated seeing our best (by far) sheep tag going to a nonres THREE YEARS IN A ROW. I don't even put in for sheep and that still ticks me off.

If you are a resident and get a lifetime hunting license, you will always be put in resident pool even if you move away... but still have to pay nonres tag fees.

 

[npaden]

Man I am struggling on whether or not to apply this year in Idaho. If I used the tag for anything else I think it would be a slam dunk, but $275 for less than a 1% draw odds for sheep is pretty spendy.

The middle of the road sheep tag is showing .7% odds on TopRut. So to get to a 50% chance you are talking 70+ years of applying. $275 X 70 = $19,250 of application fees to get to roughly a 50% chance. (Plus I don't think I will live another 71 years).

Mountain goat tag odds are pushing 3% odds so it would take about 20 years to get to that 50% chance of apply and so you are talking about $5,500 to get there. At least I would still probably be alive by then, but not sure I would be able to put in the effort needed for a mountain goat hunt.

I know lightning can strike and someone has to draw these tags but I'm not sure I can get there on applying for these anymore. I have the money to apply but not sure it is a very wise use of my funds.

Right now you can get some lower tier Canadian Bighorn hunts for around $30,000 if you shop around, I just can't fathom spending that kind of money on a hunt but I guess in the grand scheme of things it probably a better use of funds than applying in Idaho.

Oh well, leaning toward not applying this year.

 

[bobbydean]

I hunt New Mexico as a resident. I look forward to my summer spending money when I am refunded. I would have a hard time applying out of state if the tag fee was not refunded.

I need to hit the Powerball, and I wouldn't worry about it.

Followed npaden posts for years. If he has a thought, consider it!