Hunters Traihead

Joined
Jul 13, 2011
Messages
35
Was looking at the web site Hunters Trailhead. Any feed back on the info they provide. Not sure how accurate the rankings for quality, success rates and access that they post. The draw odds seem to be on by comparing them to States web sites. Just not so sure how they come up with ranking for quality. Thanks!
 
Was looking at the web site Hunters Trailhead. Any feed back on the info they provide. Not sure how accurate the rankings for quality, success rates and access that they post. The draw odds seem to be on by comparing them to States web sites. Just not so sure how they come up with ranking for quality. Thanks!

This is the one site/magazine I subscribe to. He's got far and away the best odds calculator I've seen.

It took him forever to catch up to MT once they started squaring points, but now that he has his numbers make way more sense than anything FWP provides. States like Wyoming with a preference/random draw there isn't a whole lot of benefit over just using the state data.

I have no idea how he comes up with his quality ranking and have never paid attention to them. That's a very subjective thing and one guys opinion shouldn't hold a lot of weight.

I'm pretty sure his success rates are pulled from the state sites.

I let my subscription lapse when he was behind on MT, but now that he's got that figured out it's definitely worth paying him the 25 bucks a year compared to the hours of math it would take to do it on my own.
 
I've been using his service off and on for a few years.Pretty accurate info.
Turns out I know his bro here in NM....
 
I let my subscription lapse when he was behind on MT, but now that he's got that figured out it's definitely worth paying him the 25 bucks a year compared to the hours of math it would take to do it on my own.

Same boat.
 
I traded in the huntin fool for this, save $75/yr, and get better info, imo.
 
I use it and I like it. Like the others said, it saves a ton of time comparing odds between different units.
 
I signed up for Hunters Trailhead just to have a quick way to check draw odds only to see that they are still showing 2014 draw odds for Oregon. Can anybody see their actual 2015 draw odds?
 
Draw odds can't be projected for any state in 2015.

Yep, there is no way to know the draw odds ahead of time for the year you are putting in for a tag other than to make somewhat of a guess based on previous draws already held for that tag. That can really change when there are so many different things that enter into it (tag cuts or increases, more or less people applying due to possible fee increases being talked about for instance, etc.).
 
i dont use hunters trailhead. I ask Oak and he has all the same data in his head.:hump: or at least he politley makes up great souding answers for me.
 
Yep, there is no way to know the draw odds ahead of time for the year you are putting in for a tag other than to make somewhat of a guess based on previous draws already held for that tag. That can really change when there are so many different things that enter into it (tag cuts or increases, more or less people applying due to possible fee increases being talked about for instance, etc.).

I understand there is no way to know exactly what the draw odds will be but a prediction can be made based on what is known. Here is a free one that a guy created here in Oregon.

https://sites.google.com/site/oregontags/2015

He does it every year and posts it on the web for no charge. I trust his numbers are as accurate as possible for here in Oregon I just wanted to compare the Hunters Trailhead numbers to see if I should trust them in other states. I figured they were doing the same thing for all the states they cover......I guess I was overestimating their services. My bad! Not the first $25 bucks I have wasted and probably won't be the last....
 
Known vs unknown. Eastmans' and HF can change annual odds by their picks as well as fluctuations in allocated permits. If you are not seeing the benefits then you truly are wasting $25. Don't miss the forest for the trees.
 
Known vs unknown. Eastmans' and HF can change annual odds by their picks as well as fluctuations in allocated permits. If you are not seeing the benefits then you truly are wasting $25. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

I can see some value just not what I was expecting. I guess we are spoiled here having the most up to date predictions. Looking at what the odds were last year is something to compare for sure I just figured for a paid service HT was doing more than that. WIth that said I am not sure how many states a similar forecast would work in due to annual fluctuations. Here is Oregon hunts and tag numbers rarely change so Ron's numbers are ridiculously accurate unless of course Eastmans or HF change their rating.
 
I'm not sure I understand how a prediction of 2015 would differ from the 2014 numbers if hunter and tag numbers rarely change? Sounds like a gimic to me???
 
I'm not sure I understand how a prediction of 2015 would differ from the 2014 numbers if hunter and tag numbers rarely change? Sounds like a gimic to me???

In Idaho where there are no preference points it wouldn't make a bit of difference. By looking at the last several years average applicant rates you can get a close idea. Here in Oregon and anywhere else where there are preference points it makes a huge difference due to point creep. For example if you look at the HT odds for last year for the elk hunt I apply for I would have 100% chance of drawing this year (based on number of points) but in reality I am at around 50%.

I just messed up by assumed HT was trying to do future predictions but the owner emailed me back today and said he used to do that but gave up on it. My bad for not looking more closely into what the service was. All the last years info is easy for me to calculate but the future prediction stuff is over my head.
 
GOHUNT Insider

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
111,459
Messages
1,959,767
Members
35,185
Latest member
Pam Fetzner
Back
Top