It depends on lots of things. NPaden pretty much mirrors my thoughts.
I believe your buddy...good areas can be right next to the road.
If it doesn't look good from the road or trail as you drive/walk by, many people will keep going. Most won't even stop to look over a ridge thats 200 yards off the road. I have a few places in Eastern MT that are like this. Usually have a couple square miles to myself to hunt because people are focused on getting to the "good spot" as they blow right by and don't get out and take a short hike. Areas that are easily seen from any road are usually not that great. If you can see it so can everyone else and you'll have company. If its 2-4 miles off the road, the vast majority of people can't pick out animals at that range. It takes quality optics and a trained eye. I run into hunters all the time when I'm spotting from the road, even with point out animals to them they rarely find what I'm looking at and none of them would walk to where they are, let alone pack one back.
IMO, getting to a spot first increases your odds of success on elk, that means being where you want to be before you can shoot, or darn close to shooting light. Most people leave the truck at daylight. If you miss the first hour of daylight when elk hunting, you might as well stay home. 90% of the action has happened.
My experience has been, on average, that once you get past the 1 mile mark off a trail, or about 2 miles with a trail, you've eliminated the majority of foot competition, or once you get past about 1000 vertical. Neither are that difficult, but many hunters aren't willing to put in that level of effort.
Personally I focus in on areas with great habitat or areas I think animals will go if pressured from the obvious "good" spots. Then I look at access issues and likelihood of "company" while I'm there. Areas that don't offer easy parking and simple access by vehicle/hiking/atv are usually much better than areas with easy or developed access. Think like others would... if you wanted to access an area would you go to the trail head, or stop 4 miles before it and hunt adjacent to where the trail/access would be? Most are going to blow right by and go to the trail head because that's what everyone else does. I also look for areas that would be attractive to other hunters. "Walk in areas" or large chunks of public land are magnets to hunters. Many think that large chunks of property = quality hunting. Not generally the case.
There is really no one size fits all secret to hunting public land, but its really not that difficult once you understand that people are by and large lazy. Put some sort of barrier (think effort) between you and the spot you want to hunt, get there first, and you'll have it all to yourself. Put boots on the ground and scout your area out.
