Do Not Pass On First Day What You Would Be Happy To Shoot On The Last: A Refutation

[PoleX]

At some point in the last 2 years I've started to value the experience over the end result. I think kids and a busy lifestyle have helped me appreciate any time spent outdoors. It's a nice place to be.

 

[Irrelevant]

Here in WA I've never known anyone who passes up a legal buck. Ever.

 

[LuketheDog]

I'm more of the mind "Do not pass on the second-to-last day what you'd be happy to shoot on the last"

 

[Irrelevant]

Side note. I've never drawn a "great" tag. But I've assisted with several. Pretty much every one of the tag holders is stressed out from first light on opening day, until they pull the trigger. Seems like a real waste of a potentially good time.

 

[TOGIE]

Side note. I've never drawn a "great" tag. But I've assisted with several. Pretty much every one of the tag holders is stressed out from first light on opening day, until they pull the trigger. Seems like a real waste of a potentially good time.

Having just hunted a fairly good tag - the only "good" tag I've ever held - I started feeling anxiety before the trip started. After a couple days hunting, including a big screw up on my part, it became more apparent that opportunities were gonna keep rolling in if we kept trying and my brain eased. But i struggle more than most probably to believe that to be true, even when it's becoming apparent, and my finger and brain remained fairly itchy.

Good tags create this expectation/realization, regardless of reality, in the brain that something "must" happen and something good. You get antsy over it and wonder how in the heck it possibly will. OTC tags you kinda go in with the expectation that something is probably more likely to not happen.

I only think, for the most part, that many years of experience, if you allow them to, can lay that to rest for a person.

 

[SaskHunter]

I usually add a preamble to that saying: "If you're going to bitch and moan because you didn't get anything... then don't pass on the first day what you would beg for on the last".

... and if you do bitch and moan, F U, you're on your own and in it for the wrong reasons.

 

[MThuntr]

The difference between folks who consistently achieve their hunting goals for harvest size and folks who shoot dinks is that the folks who achieve their goals understand their chance for finding the needle in the haystack increases for each day in the field. Success is relative to how much time is spent searching rather than how much time is left to search.

That’s why the last day is more likely to produce a trophy than the first day.

Then there’s the rest of us who just get excited and think a buck is bigger than it is as the hunt is winding down….View attachment 392545

That was a fun hunt even as the observer without a tag. I'd take that trip all day long! The Martin Clan knows how to have a good hunt!

 

[Redmt]

I take the meaning of the saying a bit differently. I hunt for the freezer. I usually have my bucks pre-scouted months ahead. On opening day I'll hope for one of the larger bucks but it doesn't always work out. I'll keep my eyes open for a few days and hope for something larger but if not, well I'm hunting for the freezer. Once I have one hanging I'll get my second tag and become a little more selective, but then, I'm still meat hunting. This year was completely different. Day one there wasn't buck to be found so went to my morning chores and 100 yds from home, a stranger walked through. #1 in the box. 3 weeks later #2 presented himself with a difficult shot but, he was a nice young 3x3 of decent size. The freezer is full and wife is happy.

 

[mevertsen]

Im out in the hills all year, and I apply for deer and antelope in my local spots.

I see big bucks, and small bucks.

I chase lions and birds, cut firewood, mess with trail cameras and generally spend all my time close.

So the fact I have a deer or antelope tag isn't the beginning or the end, its just a part of the process for me.

I like a variety of meat in my freezer, so it doesn't bother me to kill a young buck.

My antelope, I made some mistakes, and killed a young buck. No regrets.

I scouted and found a very nice buck deer in a spot I was in no condition to get to, so my daughter and I camped in a nice spot, and I shot a small buck the next evening.

I've since been out several times after birds, cutting firewood, helping my cousin. I've seen all kinds of animals and had a great time.

I'll be lion hunting all winter, and will likely see some nice animals then too.

Next spring I'll put up trail cameras and the process starts over again.

 

[Frequently Banned Troll]

for me it really depends. I like to fill my tags, but it also means you’re done hunting. I don’t think I’ll starve for not filling a tag. I can’t think of hardly any times I’ve regretted passing up an animal.

 

[Khunter]

The saying "You should not pass on the first day what you would be happy to shoot on the last" is something I've heard since I was old enough to hunt. That said, it is not rational, and assumes a static threshold for satisfaction during a hunt, ignoring how rational decision-making adjusts in response to dwindling time and updated expectations based on what a hunter thinks may be possible with what time is left. This is my attempt of a refutation at the old adage.

Rational Adjustment Over Time

A hunter has a personal satisfaction threshold for the buck size they desire (B). As the hunt progresses and days are used up, let us assume that the probability of encountering a buck larger than (B) decreases. Therefore, the optimal threshold (B) may(satisfaction is subjective) lower as time runs out, reflecting the collision of a desire to harvest any buck that meets minimum satisfaction, rather than holding out for a more ideal specimen.

Formally

Let:

• TT = Total days to hunt
• tt = Days remaining (so tt runs from TT down to 1)
• StSt = Satisfaction threshold on day tt
• p(x∣t)p(x∣t) = Probability of seeing a buck of size xx or better with tt days left
• U(x)U(x) = Utility (happiness) the hunter receives from shooting a buck of size xx
  

I struggle to help my daughter do her algebra homework, so in full transparency, an LLM helped me write this equation.

On day 1, you’d set a high threshold STST because the chance of future opportunities is high:

ST=argmaxx[p(x∣T)⋅U(x)]ST=argmaxx[p(x∣T)⋅U(x)]

Each day that passes, if no suitable buck is encountered, you’d recalculate:

St−1=argmaxx[p(x∣t−1)⋅U(x)]St−1=argmaxx[p(x∣t−1)⋅U(x)]


Another way to look at it: Suppose a hunter has 5 days to hunt. In this hunt, a hunter’s baseline is to harvest a buck of at least size XX, but on earlier days, passes on smaller bucks as large as or even larger than XX, hoping for a bigger one. The expected benefit of waiting is high when 5 days remain, but drops some with each unused day. On the last day, the desire to not go home empty-handed increases, rationalizing shooting a buck of a caliber previously passed.

In conclusion, the saying, "You should not pass on the first day what you would be happy to shoot on the last", makes the mistake of treating all days equally. This ignores Bayesian probability, opportunity cost, and the dynamics of satisfaction - none of which are fixed over time.



View attachment 392544

A very lengthy way of saying “duh, of course one can to be happy passing on the first day something that they might really wanna kill on the last day if given a chance— and still be perfectly satisfied with tag soup if that’s what happens.

 

[El Jason]

but it also means you’re done hunting.

Buy a couple of Drahthaars and go find some chukars. I think it’d be right up your alley.

 

[SAJ-99]

The saying "You should not pass on the first day what you would be happy to shoot on the last" is something I've heard since I was old enough to hunt. That said, it is not rational, and assumes a static threshold for satisfaction during a hunt, ignoring how rational decision-making adjusts in response to dwindling time and updated expectations based on what a hunter thinks may be possible with what time is left. This is my attempt of a refutation at the old adage.

Rational Adjustment Over Time

A hunter has a personal satisfaction threshold for the buck size they desire (B). As the hunt progresses and days are used up, let us assume that the probability of encountering a buck larger than (B) decreases. Therefore, the optimal threshold (B) may(satisfaction is subjective) lower as time runs out, reflecting the collision of a desire to harvest any buck that meets minimum satisfaction, rather than holding out for a more ideal specimen.

Formally

Let:

• TT = Total days to hunt
• tt = Days remaining (so tt runs from TT down to 1)
• StSt = Satisfaction threshold on day tt
• p(x∣t)p(x∣t) = Probability of seeing a buck of size xx or better with tt days left
• U(x)U(x) = Utility (happiness) the hunter receives from shooting a buck of size xx

I struggle to help my daughter do her algebra homework, so in full transparency, an LLM helped me write this equation.

On day 1, you’d set a high threshold STST because the chance of future opportunities is high:

ST=argmaxx[p(x∣T)⋅U(x)]ST=argmaxx[p(x∣T)⋅U(x)]

Each day that passes, if no suitable buck is encountered, you’d recalculate:

St−1=argmaxx[p(x∣t−1)⋅U(x)]St−1=argmaxx[p(x∣t−1)⋅U(x)]


Another way to look at it: Suppose a hunter has 5 days to hunt. In this hunt, a hunter’s baseline is to harvest a buck of at least size XX, but on earlier days, passes on smaller bucks as large as or even larger than XX, hoping for a bigger one. The expected benefit of waiting is high when 5 days remain, but drops some with each unused day. On the last day, the desire to not go home empty-handed increases, rationalizing shooting a buck of a caliber previously passed.

In conclusion, the saying, "You should not pass on the first day what you would be happy to shoot on the last", makes the mistake of treating all days equally. This ignores Bayesian probability, opportunity cost, and the dynamics of satisfaction - none of which are fixed over time.



View attachment 392544

I like the equation (or at least the idea of it, but the stuff you ignored can't really be ignored), but does cost come into the equation at all? For a R MT hunter the cost of eating a tag is minimal. For a NR it is $900, let's say. While I admit that the price you pay is a sunk cost, and should be viewed as such from Day 1 to the end of the hunt, I often watch standards drop and have probably done so myself, even if I knew the $ paid didn't matter to me.

Edit:Oh and maybe we should add "distance from road" as a variable.

 

[17remhunter]

In the long run for me its just being out. Never seeing another hunter glassing over some big bucks that are just to far away. Waking up to a really cold morning and getting the wood stove going The best is when you find a really good buck and telling yourself how are you going to get him out, I hunt alone often. Finding a really good within close range and passing

 

[17remhunter]

I like the equation (or at least the idea of it, but the stuff you ignored can't really be ignored), but does cost come into the equation at all? For a R MT hunter the cost of eating a tag is minimal. For a NR it is $900, let's say. While I admit that the price you pay is a sunk cost, and should be viewed as such from Day 1 to the end of the hunt, I often watch standards drop and have probably done so myself, even if I knew the $ paid didn't matter to me.

Edit:Oh and maybe we should add "distance from road" as a variable.

Statistics show that in Nevada NR success is higher than locals

 

[MTLabrador]

It depends on the species and the area for me. I got way too used to looking at south central Wyoming antelope for a few years and haven’t had any desire to chamber a round on any Montana antelope I’ve seen since.

For elk, I’m pretty sure the hunting gods are punishing me for getting too lucky on my last bull. I’m now stuck in a steep, elkless, dark timber, grizzly infested purgatory until I pay off my debt. Only the hunting gods themselves know when that will be.

 

[huntin24/7]

It depends a lot situationally for me based off what’s around. I’m much more ok with eating a tag now than I was 5 years ago. But I won’t eat an antelope tag. I’ll shoot an end of season small antelope buck for some great meat over nothing every time.

 

[LuketheDog]

I usually add a preamble to that saying: "If you're going to bitch and moan because you didn't get anything... then don't pass on the first day what you would beg for on the last".

... and if you do bitch and moan, F U, you're on your own and in it for the wrong reasons.

I got real lucky and drew a premium elk tag in the hybrid draw last year, of course I wanted to shoot a big bull and planned to hunt the entire season if I had to. Two great friends came along with me and we had a riot for two days straight, action pretty much all day, but one friend had to leave after 2 days, and the other was only able to stay for 3 days of the 5-day season. On the third morning we were sitting on a point, with elk bugling, elk in and out of range, and he spotted two small bulls across the draw. I thought to myself "I have had SO much fun the past couple days, and I still have a great friend here to help me kill and pack out a bull, I am SO blessed by these guys and this place, it is time!" I don't regret at all trying to push it solo two more days and kill a bigger bull, I got my money's worth and then some...

 

[mtmuley]

I got real lucky and drew a premium elk tag in the hybrid draw last year, of course I wanted to shoot a big bull and planned to hunt the entire season if I had to. Two great friends came along with me and we had a riot for two days straight, action pretty much all day, but one friend had to leave after 2 days, and the other was only able to stay for 3 days of the 5-day season. On the third morning we were sitting on a point, with elk bugling, elk in and out of range, and he spotted two small bulls across the draw. I thought to myself "I have had SO much fun the past couple days, and I still have a great friend here to help me kill and pack out a bull, I am SO blessed by these guys and this place, it is time!" I don't regret at all trying to push it solo two more days and kill a bigger bull, I got my money's worth and then some...

Reminds me of our antelope hunt this year. And years past actually. Family and a close friend on my families farm. No giants but man did we have fun. mtmuley

 

[Treeshark]

I’m with you @Nameless Range. My dad was talking about this exact thing the night before I shot this northwoods bruiser.

Oh and maybe we should add "distance from road" as a variable.

Also factored in (spine shot intentional, of course).