Department of Interior approves ANWR O&G leasing plan

[Irrelevant]

There is also the "not in my backyard" syndrome. Congress banned marine oil development off Florida this session, with the
Protecting and Securing Florida’s Coastline Act and the Coastal and Marine Economies Protection Act – to permanently ban oil and gas drilling off Florida’s coastlines.

My argument would be that although the oil might not be going anywhere the ability to exploit it might. Then we will be back to depending on mid east oil again.

Like I said, if push comes to shove, you can always reopen an area. Hell look at the new leases in the former Bears Ear, and there was no "National" interest involved in reopening those areas.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

We are 2 days out from the 120th anniversary of Spindletop, no idea what the industry will look like in another 120 years.

2018 analysis - WTI was ~$70 at the time

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/anwr.php

"Additional assumptions drive the projection of crude oil production from the coastal plain of ANWR:

• The first lease sale is assumed to take place in 2021. Congress ordered two lease sales in ANWR—the first within four years of the enactment of the law, and the second within seven years. This time allows for the development of a BLM leasing program, which includes approval of an Environmental Impact Statement, as well as the collection and analysis of additional seismic data.
• The first production from ANWR occurs at least 10 years after the first lease sale (i.e., 2031). This 10-year timeline is needed for exploration, appraisal, permitting, and development and assumes no protracted legal battle in approving the BLM’s draft Environmental Impact Statement, the BLM’s approval to collect seismic data, or the BLM’s approval of a specific lease-development proposal."

This was the fourth straight year of decline in Alaska's population, which peaked at 741,000 in July 2016 and was 729,000 as of last summer.” The decline is mostly related to oil revenues since ~85% of Alaska's economy is dependent on oil.

 

[SAJ-99]

This was the fourth straight year of decline in Alaska's population, which peaked at 741,000 in July 2016 and was 729,000 as of last summer.” The decline is mostly related to oil revenues since ~85% of Alaska's economy is dependent on oil.

Are you implying that we should keep drilling for oil thief because it creates jobs? Seems a reasonable economic argument from state level but a poor argument from a national perspective. This is one of those tough trade-offs we have to make, individually and in aggregate. Randy mentioned something similar on the recent podcast regard timber cutters in N Minn. don’t remember the exact wording, but something along the lines of the government should do things to allow those families to have jobs cutting timber. The counter question is shouldn’t they just move to where jobs are, even if they are not in timber? Lots of strong arguments both ways. The unwillingness of people to move away from “home” perplexes economists, especially given that all Americans trace lines back to other places.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Are you implying that we should keep drilling for oil thief because it creates jobs? Seems a reasonable economic argument from state level but a poor argument from a national perspective. This is one of those tough trade-offs we have to make, individually and in aggregate. Randy mentioned something similar on the recent podcast regard timber cutters in N Minn. don’t remember the exact wording, but something along the lines of the government should do things to allow those families to have jobs cutting timber. The counter question is shouldn’t they just move to where jobs are, even if they are not in timber? Lots of strong arguments both ways. The unwillingness of people to move away from “home” perplexes economists, especially given that all Americans trace lines back to other places.

Yeah ivory tower economists I’m sure they are perplexed. No surprise their childhood in Darien, CT didn’t prepare them to understand working class Alaskan’s.

Moving is expensive, and risky if you don’t have a job lined up. The comparison to my ancestors is ridiculous at best.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

Are you implying that we should keep drilling for oil thief because it creates jobs? Seems a reasonable economic argument from state level but a poor argument from a national perspective. This is one of those tough trade-offs we have to make, individually and in aggregate. Randy mentioned something similar on the recent podcast regard timber cutters in N Minn. don’t remember the exact wording, but something along the lines of the government should do things to allow those families to have jobs cutting timber. The counter question is shouldn’t they just move to where jobs are, even if they are not in timber? Lots of strong arguments both ways. The unwillingness of people to move away from “home” perplexes economists, especially given that all Americans trace lines back to other places.

No I did not say that. I stated 2 facts.

 

[SAJ-99]

Yeah ivory tower economists I’m sure they are perplexed. No surprise their childhood in Darien, CT didn’t prepare them to understand working class Alaskan’s.

Moving is expensive, and risky if you don’t have a job lined up. The comparison to my ancestors is ridiculous at best.

LOL. I guess we know what your stereotype of economists looks like. Economics is the intersection of money and behavior. Those who study it come from all over the globe with different views of everything. It's not called the dismal science for nothing.

Not really ridiculous at all. We have (and still are) experiencing a mass migration from rural communities to urban that has lasted for 100yrs. I can find you numerous examples of adults previously raised on a ranch that now have jobs in cities. People do have the ability to see change and move with it. The question is why certain groups don't move when jobs disappear. Government programs like Alaska giving checks to every citizen might be more of a problem than a help to these people. It certainly encourages the status quo. Maybe the government should set up a job service to find new jobs for WV coal miners and pay the moving expenses. It would probably be cheaper in the long run.

 

[SAJ-99]

No I did not say that. I stated 2 facts.

Sure, 2 facts and your explanation on a reason that may or may not be relevant. Sorry I read too much into it.

 

[Hammsolo]

I say let them drill. ANWR is a huge place. Liberal Environmentalist will cry the world is going to come to an end just like they did with the pipeline. The drilling industry is under enormous regulations and scrutiny they can’t just drill and leave. Or, pay our enemies for their oil at their price some time down the line. Keep America strong...Drill !

Artic National Wildlife Refuge? Where’s your line? Yellowstone is huge. The Bob is huge? I guess we all have to ask what our priorities are and in which order. My line is no refuges, wilderness, or parks, ever. Sounds like this isn’t going much of anywhere anyway. Huge investments in shrinking markets aren’t popular.

Good News: Trump's ANWR Oil-Lease Sale Was a Colossal Failure

Drawing only three bidders and $14 million, the administration's attempt to drill for oil in the massive Alaskan refuge is likely dead on arrival

www.outsideonline.com

 

[Hammsolo]

Disagree...

1. The industry is not under enormous scrutiny.
2. Oil prices are ridiculously low to the point that many companies have shut in wells and or laid down rigs. In 2017, Oklahoma had 120 rigs running in the Anadarko, now there are 10. Permian has lost ~300.
O&G Bankruptcies
View attachment 150686
Your premise is just completely wrong, we have plenty of capacity to produce oil in the lower 48. Production levels are where they are because you can't economically drill and get O&G to market below current levels.

The US will always import some oil due to production mixes, ie we produce a lot of light sweet crude and need more heavy oil for current refinery configurations. (Alaskan oil is in the middle API gravity 32)

No new capacity is needed, in fact right now we need to reduce production as an industry.

Call me a green liberal environmentalist all you want.


I think you should let my company continue to drill here, we have decades of great inventory that we can produce profitably.

View attachment 150679


and let this area alone

View attachment 150680


I fully recognize that Alaskan's need jobs as well, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to prop up a floundering extractive industry.

North Slope oil should not be given an unfair advantage over Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, ND, ect that causes jobs in those states to be lost.

Well said, and appreciate the expertise.

 

[Hammsolo]

It's estimated to cost between 12-24 billion to clean up the estimated 500k abandoned oil/gas wells we already have. Another great example of privatizing the profits and socializing the costs.

"The research by a team of energy experts concluded a federal economic stimulus program focused on plugging 500,000 abandoned and orphaned wells across the country could generate upward of 120,000 jobs for unemployed oil and gas workers... For one, the program could range from roughly $12 billion to $24 billion, due to the incredible variability in restoration costs from well to well."

Oil well cleanup program may spur jobs

CASPER — The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding collapse in energy markets have wreaked havoc in the oil and gas sector. An estimated 76,000 direct oil and gas jobs were slashed

www.gillettenewsrecord.com

"Earlier this year, GAO reported that 84% of bonds for federal oil and gas development were likely insufficient to cover cleanup costs."

OIL AND GAS: Thousands of 'orphan wells' spark safety, cleanup fears

Across the West, thousands of oil and gas wells sit idle on federal lands. They pose environmental and safety hazards, but critics say the Bureau of Land Management doesn't have a good way of tracking them, and there's not nearly enough money set aside to plug them.

www.eenews.net

“It’s starting to become out of control, and we want to rein this in,” Bruce Hicks, Assistant Director of the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, said last year about companies abandoning oil and gas wells. The state recently decided to use $66 million in federal funds designated for coronavirus relief to begin cleaning up wells the oil industry has abandoned — costs that the industry should be covering, according to the law, but that are now shifted to the public. "

The Bakken Boom Goes Bust With No Money to Clean up the Mess

More than a decade ago, fracking took off in the Bakken shale of North Dakota and Montana, but the oil rush that followed has resulted in major environmental damage, risky oil transportation without regulation, pipeline permitting issues, and failure to produce profits. Now, after all of that...

www.desmogblog.com

What reality are you living in?

Growing up in the world’s largest superfund site, and having family still there I’ve watched company shell games my whole life. Go see Anaconda and Butte, and see how what’s going. It’s a continual slow fight to get companies to do as little as they can manage to do, not to mention all of the health affects like increased rates of cancer.

 

[Hammsolo]

@JLS It's interesting, and not all surprising, that people bash the info shared on this hunting forum that is completely unrelated to hunting. I would be suspect myself if I didn't know better. But damn if I haven't found this place to be full of reasonable people with more knowledge about more things than I would have ever expected. The collective HT community is a helluva lot better source than most places I go to. Not any one person, but the collective knowledge that's consistently shared. Maybe I give it too much credit, but my census is that the general population is getting dumber and dumber and even worse, more tribal.

I agree on so many levels, however I think there’s another piece I call the noisy micro-minority. Don't get me wrong, it’s not 3 people. In relationship to our population extremists are a micro-minority I believe. They (possibly the dumber) are getting louder and louder. I try not not to listen to the echo chamber of social media, and really look at data of experts, and my own observational data. Let’s keep the conversation open here. I appreciate the openness to listening and learning on this forum.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

The recent lease sales on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) offered 22 leases totaling about 1.1 million acres for sale and attracted only 3 buyers for only half of them...none were major oil companies.

One buyer was the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority. This agency of the state of AK was also the dominant buyer, paying $12 million to acquire nine of the leases. The other two winning bids totaled $2.4 million and came from two small companies: Regenerate Alaska, a subsidiary of Australia-based 88 Energy, and Knik Arm Services, a small Alaska company.

West of ANWR is the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
In late December, Interior Secretary David Bernhardt signed the new activity plan that expanded potential lease area from 7 million acres to 18.6 million acres.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

“Alaskans need to stop dreaming about ANWR and start thinking about other things,” Larry Persily, a former Alaska deputy commissioner of revenue.

Biden blocks drilling in ANWR, among his first acts as president

The decision came one day after the Trump administration issued oil and gas leases on the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

www.adn.com

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

LOL. I guess we know what your stereotype of economists looks like.

of some academics... because I had to go to class with them. Economists, my uncle in-law was a very prominent one I'm sure he would have given these economists an eye roll as well; "unwillingness of people to move away from “home” perplexes economists, especially given that all Americans trace lines back to other places."

War, famine, religious persecution, genocide, generations living under "feudalism" are not comparable to economic decline of an industry. Those factors are what cause my ancestors to move their families to this country. Several of my ancestors moved to the US as young single men. They moved here for economic reasons, I'm sure there are 25 year old dudes leaving Anchorage for Midland.

Government programs like Alaska giving checks to every citizen might be more of a problem than a help to these people.

I'm not sure the $992 check is what's keeping folks in AK. Though I agree, I think likely it is more of a problem and that possibly that money could be put to better use subsidizing various industries that would create jobs.

I think a lot of economists should read Yi-Fu Tuan's Space and Place, and that those postulating about WV should drive down there and ask the coal miners why they don't want to leave? I can't speak to the life experiences of Alaskans or WV coal miners, but I can surmise they have some reasons for wanting to stay that transcend jobs.

 

[beginnerhunter]

of some academics... because I had to go to class with them. Economists, my uncle in-law was a very prominent one I'm sure he would have given these economists an eye roll as well; "unwillingness of people to move away from “home” perplexes economists, especially given that all Americans trace lines back to other places."

War, famine, religious persecution, genocide, generations living under "feudalism" are not comparable to economic decline of an industry. Those factors are what cause my ancestors to move their families to this country. Several of my ancestors moved to the US as young single men. They moved here for economic reasons, I'm sure there are 25 year old dudes leaving Anchorage for Midland.



I'm not sure the $992 check is what's keeping folks in AK. Though I agree, I think likely it is more of a problem and that possibly that money could be put to better use subsidizing various industries that would create jobs.

I think a lot of economists should read Yi-Fu Tuan's Space and Place, and that those postulating about WV should drive down there and ask the coal miners why they don't want to leave? I can't speak to the life experiences of Alaskans or WV coal miners, but I can surmise they have some reasons for wanting to stay that transcend jobs.

The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills...

 

[SAJ-99]

War, famine, religious persecution, genocide, generations living under "feudalism" are not comparable to economic decline of an industry. Those factors are what cause my ancestors to move their families to this country. Several of my ancestors moved to the US as young single men. They moved here for economic reasons, I'm sure there are 25 year old dudes leaving Anchorage for Midland.

So obviously in your view there are legit reasons to move. Not sure why families is bolded, but many left their families behind, so an even greater sacrifice. We are not asking WV coal miners to move to Russia, or even Alaska. But they have to go where the jobs are. Sure they are not going to Silicon Valley to be programmers, but there are jobs they could do in other places. Do you think truck drivers are thrilled they are away from their families so much? Or all roofers love their jobs? They could move to the Central Valley and pick lettuce instead of relying on immigrants. They could probably go to PA and work bar has infrastructure. But alas, they don’t. Just stay and keep voting for people that say they will save them even though that is impossible.
maybe the bottom line is that Americans, as a group, are fat and lazy like how the rest of the world see us.

 

[Irrelevant]

So obviously in your view there are legit reasons to move. Not sure why families is bolded, but many left their families behind, so an even greater sacrifice. We are not asking WV coal miners to move to Russia, or even Alaska. But they have to go where the jobs are. Sure they are not going to Silicon Valley to be programmers, but there are jobs they could do in other places. Do you think truck drivers are thrilled they are away from their families so much? Or all roofers love their jobs? They could move to the Central Valley and pick lettuce instead of relying on immigrants. They could probably go to PA and work bar has infrastructure. But alas, they don’t. Just stay and keep voting for people that say they will save them even though that is impossible.
maybe the bottom line is that Americans, as a group, are fat and lazy like how the rest of the world see us.

I don't disagree. But anyone that has raised kids both near and away from family should recognize the extreme disparity in the amount of effort between the two. It can be so great as to severely impact your ability to work or work production. So if you ever want to have a family there is a very strong incentive to stay close to family.

 

[SAJ-99]

I don't disagree. But anyone that has raised kids both near and away from family should recognize the extreme disparity in the amount of effort between the two. It can be so great as to severely impact your ability to work or work production. So if you ever want to have a family there is a very strong incentive to stay close to family.

Agree. I think we understand why they don’t leave. The real discussion is how much or how long should we (through the government) pay to have them stay? The same thing will need to be figured out for Alaska. Either we encourage more oil production in Alaska so the Royalty checks continue to flow or we tell Alaskans to fall in line. Let me be clear, there is a nuance here with Alaska. Alaska is in the top ten in states for median wage (just a couple behind all those Connecticut economists). How much is that from O&G industry? But there a segment of the population who needs that royalty check.

 

[Big Fin]

LOL. I guess we know what your stereotype of economists looks like. Economics is the intersection of money and behavior. Those who study it come from all over the globe with different views of everything. It's not called the dismal science for nothing.

Not really ridiculous at all. We have (and still are) experiencing a mass migration from rural communities to urban that has lasted for 100yrs. I can find you numerous examples of adults previously raised on a ranch that now have jobs in cities. People do have the ability to see change and move with it. The question is why certain groups don't move when jobs disappear. Government programs like Alaska giving checks to every citizen might be more of a problem than a help to these people. It certainly encourages the status quo. Maybe the government should set up a job service to find new jobs for WV coal miners and pay the moving expenses. It would probably be cheaper in the long run.

What you suggest is the usual path that happens when society requests changes in our natural resource policies. It is painful, but few options are made available to those without political connection.

I've seen the dwindling of a small rural community, first-hand; lived it and left it. I was young, single, and without obligation, so it was easy for me to relocate, as is often suggested that others should do.

To your point of "Why," my personal experiences and interactions with others show a lot of answers to that, a few of which I'll list below.

I had family members who were/are the primary caregivers to other family members. Picking up and moving to a new job was/is not easy for them, sometimes impossible. Most of them stay in these depressed areas out of responsibility and obligation to those they provide care. In many rural areas, this caregiver situation is far more common than many might think. There just isn't the caregiver infrastructure in many places where these type of resource-based economic spirals happen and that responsibility falls to family members.

Many of these folks bought homes and tried to make a go of it in these mostly rural areas. In my case, when the mill shut down, the logging economy hit the skids and property values crashed. When these crashes happen, folks who are expected to move to follow the jobs have homes/mortgages that are way underwater; they are not the beneficiaries of a crazy real estate market we have here in Bozeman today.

When they are expected to relocate to where the jobs exist the options come with some tough decisions; either default on their mortgage by walking away or taking all the savings they might have to pay the difference in how much their mortgage is upside down. Pretty hard to pack up a family and move to a much higher cost location when you are defaulting on a mortgage and/or bringing no home equity with you to restart a new life somewhere else.

Many are small business owners. They have business loans, employees, and other obligations. They are lucky to liquidate their equipment and facilities for what debt balance exists. They end up with no equity, often defaulting on their business loans if they leave. Not that easy for them to pack up and move, leaving behind an entire life's investment in their version of the American Dream.

I've witnessed that in most instances, moving to the jobs and doing as you say is the eventual outcome for most, though it might take decades for the migration to complete. Most these folks know that eventual reality, but a life of dreams is hard to give up on, so they search and fight to find a way to change that eventuality.

For these folks, whether they stay or migrate, it is very difficult. The concerns tend to be discounted by politicians and economic theory promoters. Those theories assume everyone has skill mobility and low-hurdle migration options. That's just not the case.

These changes come with a ton of turmoil and consequence that is hard to measure, as it shows up in divorce rates, suicides, broken families, and other social fractures. These folks know that reality and they resist change in hopes that they can avoid this turmoil, though they seldom do avoid it.

When they voice their concerns that come with policy changes that impact resource industries, it is a social protest against the changes to their reality that bring forth a decision between multiple bad options. It is why they often vote the way they do, knowing many urban folks have bought into the mobility theories, of which these folks are the lab rats. I think we would do a lot better by listening and addressing those concerns, maybe even finding ways to soften the financial impacts imposed on these folks.

If AIG, Wall Street, and the automakers were "too big to fail" in 2008/09, I think the same could be said of Libby, MT and its timber industry, or Rangely, CO and its natural gas industry, or Gillette, WY and its coal industry, or Colstrip, MT and its electrical generating economy, or Koochiching Country, MN and its logging/paper/timber economy, or (insert here). I'd way rather see tax money or more US Treasury debt used for those folks than the well-connected dudes who usually get bailed out.

Yet, as a society, we've decided that the folks on the blunt end of the resource policy hammer are "just the right size to fail." Neither party has cornered the market on bludgeoning these folks with policy changes, as it seems to happen in many different situations under many different administrations. And both sides seem to share the same lack of concern for the folks who are doing the bleeding, crying and dying when the policy pendulums swing. I guess that is why politics is the science of picking winners and losers and political donations are the insurance premiums paid to insure being a policy winner.

Wish it was different, but what you mention is the expectation in our society. When faced with no other options, migrating becomes the eventual reality for most these folks. And with that migration comes the turmoil and disruptions that don't get recorded in the simplicity of most our economic measurements.

I am thankful for the good fortune that was my tailwind when that reality was part of my life. I came out the other end better than I could have ever asked for. Many family and friends were not so lucky.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

So obviously in your view there are legit reasons to move. Not sure why families is bolded, but many left their families behind, so an even greater sacrifice. We are not asking WV coal miners to move to Russia, or even Alaska. But they have to go where the jobs are. Sure they are not going to Silicon Valley to be programmers, but there are jobs they could do in other places. Do you think truck drivers are thrilled they are away from their families so much? Or all roofers love their jobs? They could move to the Central Valley and pick lettuce instead of relying on immigrants. They could probably go to PA and work bar has infrastructure. But alas, they don’t. Just stay and keep voting for people that say they will save them even though that is impossible.
maybe the bottom line is that Americans, as a group, are fat and lazy like how the rest of the world see us.

I had a reply typed out but just read Randy's post.

The only thing worth adding is that there's a reason that song about Harlan County resonates with folks even if they've never stepped foot there.

Generations of my family were the working class whose seeming duty was to migrate or languish. I deeply value education because it's what got my family out of the cycle, but at the same time I'm not about to condemn those don't have the opportunities I did.