AlaskaHunter
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Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION
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Jim/Wa
Active member
Food for thought: yesterday there were 38 states increasing at a rate >10% daily, today there are 43. We passed Italy a few days ago for total confirmed cases. The US now has more than Italy and Spain combined. At the current rate, we’ll have more than Italy, Spain, and Germany within 2-3 days.
Bigjay73
Well-known member
We also have 4 times the population as those countries. It is what it is, the genie ain't going back in the bottle. All we can do is be smart, and ride this out.
LuketheDog
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The US population is almost 2x the population of Italy, Spain, and Germany combined, I'd be more shocked if we ended up with less cases than any of those countries or any combination thereof...
LuketheDog
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Not if China ever decides to tell the truth...
Bigjay73
Well-known member
I didn't vote for Trump, not a huge fan, but im not sure that any of our last several presidents would have acted much quicker. Sure they probably would not have said some of the idiodic things Trump said, but given the reality that your actions we lead to shutting down the biggest economy in the world, I'm betting they wouldn't have been so quick to pull the trigger.
SAJ-99
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Isn’t population density an important variable given we are dealing with an infectious disease spread from person to person?
LuketheDog
Well-known member
Um, yes...
Jim/Wa
Active member
The point I was attempting to make was the rate of growth. Another way to look at it is US growth rate was 12% yesterday, worldwide was 8% (and that’s skewed higher since it includes US data).
LuketheDog
Well-known member
There is so much wrong with basic comparisons like that...countries are testing differently/quicker/slower/more or less accurately, testing only people with symptoms, reporting only cases that have symptoms, not considering that some countries have had it longer than others and therefore are at a different stage of spread, truthful or untruthful reporting, countries like Sweden who have done essentially nothing, etc., etc., etc...
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Jim/Wa
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SAJ-99
Well-known member
I may have quoted the wrong post. I was just checking, because I wanted to make sure total numbers aren’t really comparable for a lot of reasons.
Jim/Wa
Active member
I certainly don’t disagree. 12% growth rate overall with 43 states >10% is concerning...even if you allow for increased rate of testing.
ImBillT
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What happened to “no discussion”?
VikingsGuy
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It does not appear that request will be followed. I don't know how to change the thread title but perhaps it should be changed to "polite discussion"
Our numbers, like China’s are bullshit. They’re lying and we aren’t testing.
Between 2 of my wife's coworkers at the hospital and 3 of their family members, I know of 5 people that almost certainly have it, quarantined in their homes that haven’t been able to get tested.
If I, a person who can count on one hand the number of people I personally know in the state of Arizona, anecdotally know of 5 people that almost certainly have it, how many unreported cases are there?
Between 2 of my wife's coworkers at the hospital and 3 of their family members, I know of 5 people that almost certainly have it, quarantined in their homes that haven’t been able to get tested.
If I, a person who can count on one hand the number of people I personally know in the state of Arizona, anecdotally know of 5 people that almost certainly have it, how many unreported cases are there?
MinnesotaHunter
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Over the last couple of weeks, the number I am seeing quoted more is that we have about a 12% detection rate. That is obviously very hard to prove without random "extent of community spread" testing.
This sort of goes along with a question I'd like to ask. Does anyone know the parameters for determining what is considered a death from corona?
We all agree that many more people have corona than what is confirmed (limited testing). I don't necessarily agree with the Oxford study and think it is probably high but I will use their numbers for easy math. That study says that 50% of the UK population may have/have had corona. Translate that to our country.
Consider that the we (US) average about 8,000 deaths per day. If we now test every death for corona, it would not be unusual to have 4,000 corona deaths per day....in this hypothetical. Likely extreme but something watch for. I'd like to see how many more deaths corona is causing than normal. They call it excess mortality and it shows how severe (above the normal) a particular epidemic affects a population.
ImBillT
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Some areas have more testing abilities than others. We have tested over 1000 here. 108 cases, 41 from elder care facilities, 10 recoveries, 14 hospitalizations, 3 fatalities, all three over 55, two were from elder care facilities, none have needed mechanical ventilation.
Because almost all of the tests have been people showing symptoms, and statewide those positives have been about 7%, you cannot accurately say that you know someone who “almost certainly has it”.
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