Animal World Divided on Winter Weather Forecast
By Neil Chatterjee
LONDON (Reuters) - Weather forecasts are notoriously fickle, but bees, caterpillars and bears are proving as divided as meteorologists on how long winter will last.
While January saw freezing temperatures in the United States and colder weather from Europe and Japan, animal conduct around the world is giving mixed signals.
"Bees have built their hives close to the ground. If it was going to snow very heavily, they would have built them higher up," said Chris Goss, who runs a smallholding in the northeast U.S. state of Vermont.
Animal behavior is just one of the clues used by some energy traders and analysts to try and predict temperatures in the U.S. northeast, the world's biggest heating oil consumer region, as a barometer of oil demand.
Back in autumn, oil analysts pointed to narrow patches of brown fur on the back of woolly bear caterpillars as a sign that the U.S. winter could be harsh. Frantic acorn-gathering activity by squirrels appeared to confirm the prognosis.
The world's most famous animal forecaster -- U.S. rodent Punxsutawney Phil, made famous by the film Groundhog Day -- has just forecast six more weeks of winter, as he crawled out of his Pennsylvanian hole on February 2 and saw his own shadow.
In Japan, where demand for kerosene for heating has picked up in recent weeks as colder temperatures bite, oil traders have also been keeping their eyes close to the ground.
"I saw some preying mantis eggs, but they were lower than usual," a Japanese oil trader said, adding he had looked for eggs of the large carnivorous insect in his garden plants.
"If they are high up it's because they're trying to avoid the snow, so it's a sign that snow will be light. This winter will be bad for kerosene," he added.
Zoologists say insects can respond to different humidity, though birds are more likely to use changing day length as a sign to migrate than unreliable temperatures.
FORECASTS OR ADAPTION?
In Russia, a bear in a zoo woke up in January from her hibernation two months early, while another had not gone to sleep at all. Temperatures have since headed downwards but overall the normally ferocious winter has been unusually mild.
This has enabled oil exports from the world's largest producer to continue at high levels, at a time when ice usually restricts transportation, traders said on Wednesday.
In Europe, the UK's Met Office has forecast mild weather until April for northern Europe, but it warns techniques for seasonal forecasts are still at an early stage of development and are less skilled than short-term predictions.
In Finland, a man successfully predicted weather for a year based on his frog's behavior. But overall the success at long-term forecasting by both humans and animals is inconclusive.
Some scientists say that animals cannot predict weather, but simply adapt their behavior to current conditions, so that any forecasts gleaned could only be short-term.
"There's more folklore than real science," said Professor Barry Keverne at the University of Cambridge's zoology department. "But animals do respond to seasons, as it's important for reproductive success."
There seems no doubt that many animals have senses more highly developed than humans to changes in environment. Few large animals appear to have been killed in the recent Asian tsunami, while the human death toll has risen to around 300,000.
However, animals may not be able to adapt enough to changing temperatures -- whole species face extinction from global warming, scientists said on Wednesday. (additional reporting Ikuko Kao in Tokyo)
By Neil Chatterjee
LONDON (Reuters) - Weather forecasts are notoriously fickle, but bees, caterpillars and bears are proving as divided as meteorologists on how long winter will last.
While January saw freezing temperatures in the United States and colder weather from Europe and Japan, animal conduct around the world is giving mixed signals.
"Bees have built their hives close to the ground. If it was going to snow very heavily, they would have built them higher up," said Chris Goss, who runs a smallholding in the northeast U.S. state of Vermont.
Animal behavior is just one of the clues used by some energy traders and analysts to try and predict temperatures in the U.S. northeast, the world's biggest heating oil consumer region, as a barometer of oil demand.
Back in autumn, oil analysts pointed to narrow patches of brown fur on the back of woolly bear caterpillars as a sign that the U.S. winter could be harsh. Frantic acorn-gathering activity by squirrels appeared to confirm the prognosis.
The world's most famous animal forecaster -- U.S. rodent Punxsutawney Phil, made famous by the film Groundhog Day -- has just forecast six more weeks of winter, as he crawled out of his Pennsylvanian hole on February 2 and saw his own shadow.
In Japan, where demand for kerosene for heating has picked up in recent weeks as colder temperatures bite, oil traders have also been keeping their eyes close to the ground.
"I saw some preying mantis eggs, but they were lower than usual," a Japanese oil trader said, adding he had looked for eggs of the large carnivorous insect in his garden plants.
"If they are high up it's because they're trying to avoid the snow, so it's a sign that snow will be light. This winter will be bad for kerosene," he added.
Zoologists say insects can respond to different humidity, though birds are more likely to use changing day length as a sign to migrate than unreliable temperatures.
FORECASTS OR ADAPTION?
In Russia, a bear in a zoo woke up in January from her hibernation two months early, while another had not gone to sleep at all. Temperatures have since headed downwards but overall the normally ferocious winter has been unusually mild.
This has enabled oil exports from the world's largest producer to continue at high levels, at a time when ice usually restricts transportation, traders said on Wednesday.
In Europe, the UK's Met Office has forecast mild weather until April for northern Europe, but it warns techniques for seasonal forecasts are still at an early stage of development and are less skilled than short-term predictions.
In Finland, a man successfully predicted weather for a year based on his frog's behavior. But overall the success at long-term forecasting by both humans and animals is inconclusive.
Some scientists say that animals cannot predict weather, but simply adapt their behavior to current conditions, so that any forecasts gleaned could only be short-term.
"There's more folklore than real science," said Professor Barry Keverne at the University of Cambridge's zoology department. "But animals do respond to seasons, as it's important for reproductive success."
There seems no doubt that many animals have senses more highly developed than humans to changes in environment. Few large animals appear to have been killed in the recent Asian tsunami, while the human death toll has risen to around 300,000.
However, animals may not be able to adapt enough to changing temperatures -- whole species face extinction from global warming, scientists said on Wednesday. (additional reporting Ikuko Kao in Tokyo)
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