When will wood prices go back down?

[hank4elk]

Too many sales weasels have hands on the wood.

 

[BigHornRam]

Too many sales weasels have hands on the wood.

Be nice to the sales weasels Hank! They need to make a living too.
Speculators on the other hand......

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/lumber-and-pulp/random-length-lumber.html#

 

[hank4elk]

and everyone wanted to be a corntractor instead of just a well paid Journeyman,then just a Cornstruction Manager,then there were no more carpenters worth a shit...............but hey,they made bank.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

Remember a couple of years back when we put a tariff on Canadian lumber because it was too cheap. Ah, for the good old days.

The tariff on Canadian lumber was reduced from 20% to 9%, but it appears that did little in terms of supply/demand/prices.

 

[SAJ-99]

Log prices are up a little but not at the same rate as lumber prices.

INLAND FOREST MANGEMENT | Log Prices

Current timber harvesting log prices: Ponderosa pine, douglas fir, grand fir, lodgepole, western pine, cedar poles and more...

inlandforest.com

^this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...d-is-exploding-from-cheap-trees?sref=rYMkp3wV

Basically everyone on this thread agrees that prices will remain high, which mean they will go down.

The futures market prices are in backwardation (near term delivery prices are higher than longer term deliveries). For example, Jan 2022 is 25% cheaper than May 2021. This typically indicates higher near term demand that will eventually be matched by new supply coming online, as the above article mentioned. At least that is the expectation. As previously stated, the cure for high prices is high prices. The main problem is people like the OP are still able to ask the question "Buy now or wait?". You can only "Buy now" if you can afford it because you have the cash. What we see is the effect of the government printing money. It might only be fixed when "buying now" isn't an option, unfortunately.

 

[brocksw]

I think I'm gonna start partin out people's houses to sell lumber... I'll pay myself in 2x4s and OSB.

 

[Nick87]

Basically everyone on this thread agrees that prices will remain high, which mean they will go down

Some truth to that ime.

 

[Tradewind]

Be nice to the sales weasels Hank! They need to make a living too.
Speculators on the other hand......

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/lumber-and-pulp/random-length-lumber.html#

looks prices are off just a bit today, eh

 

[BigHornRam]

looks prices are off just a bit today, eh

It was up $50 a thousand bf when I posted it. Now it's down $50. Gamblers, I mean speculators.

 

[NEW PA MT MN]

Back up to Creston California. My daughter asked me to build her a shed for her stuff. OSB in Home Depot in Atascadero.
One word.
Are you listening Benjamin?
PLASTICS.
She's getting a plastic shed.
Trouble is I've got a real problem following instructions.

 

[Glockster]

Prices will go down, building will slow down as soon as he housing market market collapses.

at the rate we were going it shouldn’t be too much longer.

 

[Addicting]

Prices will go down, building will slow down as soon as he housing market market collapses.

at the rate we were going it shouldn’t be too much longer.

I thought that near the election and I left a lot of gains still on the table. When it happens and it will this won’t be pretty.

 

[coleslaw]

Never. Everything is inflated now.

 

[brockel]

I know I wish I would have built my pole barn last spring but decided to put it off for a year. Boy was that dumb

 

[Addicting]

I know I wish I would have built my pole barn last spring but decided to put it off for a year. Boy was that dumb

I put a deposit down on one last fall for one to be built last month. The builder keeps telling me he is gonna start yet there is only the pad I put in for him in February. I am left wondering with this thread if he bid it high enough to cover his costs or is the lumber price why he keeps pushing a start date.

 

[BrentD]

And here i thought this thread was about English walnut stock blanks.

 

[brockel]

I put a deposit down on one last fall for one to be built last month. The builder keeps telling me he is gonna start yet there is only the pad I put in for him in February. I am left wondering with this thread if he bid it high enough to cover his costs or is the lumber price why he keeps pushing a start date.

I’m the builder so I can only blame myself

 

[brockel]

And here i thought this thread was about English walnut stock blanks.

Cheaper than plywood now

 

[Chad4000]

I run a crating company and we buy lumber by the truck load.. We're hoping it'll go down soon but it's up every time we have to buy (bi-weekly to monthly depending on what type).. Haven't seen a single dip in pricing since early last year. Crossing fingers..

 

[OMB]

I just walked a timber with a logger last week to mark trees. He was taking all the ash, select red and white oak, and only the best walnut. No hard maple or hickory. The prices the guys with standing timber to sell are getting is not reflecting the price at menards.

"Lumber prices" generally is only referring to softwoods going into building products like pine and fir. My family owns a mill and kiln and exclusively saws hardwoods, with oak/maple/walnut being our primary species. The price of red oak only started coming back from 5-7 year lows about 3-4 months ago because China wasn't importing as much over the past 4-5 years. Demand is starting to pick back up now that people are buying more furniture/building houses/remodeling, but the strongest performing woods are more of the "trash" species that go into pallet lumber and white oak getting sawed into railroad ties or barrel staves.

There's also not a ton of mill capacity across the country right now, the US lost about 50% of its sawmills after the last big recession and there's been a ton of consolidation across the industry which has made it hard to spool up to meet demand.

It's almost the same as the ammo market right now: mills have had it pretty tough the last 10 years so they aren't going to spool up capacity until they see it's sustainable, and even when they do, it takes such a long time to get mill capacity up and producing once they make the investment.