recession?

[SaskHunter]

imo, there is a lot to like about a parliamentary form of government.

Our constitution selects for stalemate fairly often. That and one house of Congress is wildly unrepresentative. It gives disproportionate power to rural states.

Federal Parliamentary Monarchy; ruled by a random nepo baby with no real powers overseas!

 

[Beignet]

We're not really a two party system, we have four main parties that hold significant power. The New Democrats (NDP) became the official opposition from 2011 to 2015, with the Conservatives in power and Liberals far far behind. We have what we call majority and minority governments. A majority government happens when a political party holds the majority of seats/elected members of parliament and cannot be defeated with a vote of non-confidence. A minority government happens when a party is elected with the most seats in parliament, but when the majority of seats are held by other parties, therefore the minority government in power must remain somewhat neutral or form a coalition to rule. Right now the LPC holds 160, CPC 119, Bloc 32, NDP 24 and Greens 2 seats.

Currently, the Liberal Party (LPC) has a coalition government with the NDP, meaning that as long as the LPC passes policies that the NPD agrees on, they will continue to hold the majority of power together. What ends up happening is that if the LPC or Conservatives (CPC) have a minority government, they must work with one or more parties to maintain their rule, meaning that parties like the NDP or Bloc Quebecois (who would never get a majority government), end up having legislations passed thru coalition efforts.

Essentially, parties have to work together to make things work when we have a minority government. No one wants to have repeated elections unless there's a good reason and any "non-confidence" vote would trigger an election (meaning a majority of members of parliament vote "No" on any item brought to Parliament). The both the LPC and CPC have worked with the Bloc or NDP in the past.

Edit: We also don't have a cult-like following of Prime Minister candidates like we see South of the border. Our Prime Ministers are the leaders of their respective parties, when their parties are elected to power. Our head of state, or "President" if you will, is King Charles III, represented by the Governor General (unelected official) who essentially signs off on stuff that Parliament and the Senate have voted on. We do not have a single entity or person, who can make drastic decisions in Canada. The King and Governor General have absolutely no powers here in Canada, they act on request of the government. While the King technically owns everything, he can't do shyte.

That was informative. Thanks! Sorry I don’t know jack about what’s shaking up north. Especially when you guys are bludgeoned with news coming from us all the time.

Good luck in the trade war and enjoy your healthcare.

 

[Nick87]

I bet it's a lot for sure.
And until David is old enough to start school, we kinda have no choice. No child care close by. I appreciate them helping tremendously, but I'm ready for school to start.

Luckily for me, my parents are the ones who help with the kids. If I had to deal with her parents that much I'd swan dive into a wood chipper, literally. I feel like I'm having holidays with the phuggin Adam's family. You're a better man than me.

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

Maybe all this is false (so feel free to fact check) but I just don't see how this means recession bound. I included previous administration numbers just for context of how things are portrayed by different members of the media and society under each administration. The sky was not falling under either administration in my opinion. Feel free to poke holes through all the data as a lot of you probably understand this stuff way better than me. This should at least get this thread on track with recession debate. Things are not perfect because there is certainly negative actions being taken, but I do think some good things are starting to take shape and it's not always all doom and gloom.

Gas down 11% from this time last year.
Fell for the third straight week lowest level in March since 2021. Under previous administration: increased on average 0.8% per month—and 35% in total.

Eggs over 25% cheaper than when President Trump took office. As supply increases, based on Secretary Rollins plan, prices will continue to fall.
Jan. 21, 2025: $6.550
Mar. 13, 2025: $4.8971
Difference: - $1.6529 (- 25.24%)

Mortgage rates down 35 basis points or roughly $900 in annual savings. Dropped for six consecutive weeks, to the lowest level seen in five months.

Airline fares fell 4% in February. Under previous administration: increased on average 0.6% per month—and 32% in total.

Crude Oil fallen nearly $11 (down 16%).

Grocery prices were flat month-over-month 0.0% in February. Under previous administration: increasing on average 0.4% per month—and 23% in total.

Inflation slowed in February, beating expectations, with core inflation at its lowest level in four years. Month-over-month was only 0.2% down from 0.5% in the month prior.
Core inflation dropped in February to its lowest year over year pace in nearly 4 years since April 2021. Wholesale inflation came in lower than expected in February.

151,000 jobs added in February.
10,000 new manufacturing jobs including 8,900 auto manufacturing jobs. Final year of previous administration lost an average of 9,000 manufacturing jobs per month, or 111,000 total.
Industry surged last month to its highest level since June 2022, and returned to expansion territory after 26 consecutive months of contraction. 19,000 new construction jobs.
93% of new jobs created were in the private sector. In the last two years of the Biden administration, over 25% of added jobs were government jobs.

Apple announced a historic $500 billion investment, which will create 20,000 new US jobs.

Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure totaling $500 billion private investment.

TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in US based semiconductor chip manufacturing.

Eli Lilly and Company announced a $27 billion investment in its US based manufacturing.

CMA CGM will invest $20 billion in U.S. shipping and logistics, which will create 10,000 new US jobs.

DAMAC Properties announced $20 billion investment to build new US based data centers.

Wisconsin based Clarios, a leader in low-voltage energy storage, announced a $6 billion plan to expand its US based manufacturing.

Stellantis announced a $5 billion investment to reopen its Belvidere, Illinois, assembly plant 1,500 jobs restored.

 

[texwest44]

Maybe all this is false (so feel free to fact check) but I just don't see how this means recession bound. I included previous administration numbers just for context of how things are portrayed by different members of the media and society under each administration. The sky was not falling under either administration in my opinion. Feel free to poke holes through all the data as a lot of you probably understand this stuff way better than me. This should at least get this thread on track with recession debate. Things are not perfect because there is certainly negative actions being taken, but I do think some good things are starting to take shape and it's not always all doom and gloom.

Gas down 11% from this time last year.
Fell for the third straight week lowest level in March since 2021. Under previous administration: increased on average 0.8% per month—and 35% in total.

Eggs over 25% cheaper than when President Trump took office. As supply increases, based on Secretary Rollins plan, prices will continue to fall.
Jan. 21, 2025: $6.550
Mar. 13, 2025: $4.8971
Difference: - $1.6529 (- 25.24%)

Mortgage rates down 35 basis points or roughly $900 in annual savings. Dropped for six consecutive weeks, to the lowest level seen in five months.

Airline fares fell 4% in February. Under previous administration: increased on average 0.6% per month—and 32% in total.

Crude Oil fallen nearly $11 (down 16%).

Grocery prices were flat month-over-month 0.0% in February. Under previous administration: increasing on average 0.4% per month—and 23% in total.

Inflation slowed in February, beating expectations, with core inflation at its lowest level in four years. Month-over-month was only 0.2% down from 0.5% in the month prior.
Core inflation dropped in February to its lowest year over year pace in nearly 4 years since April 2021. Wholesale inflation came in lower than expected in February.

151,000 jobs added in February.
10,000 new manufacturing jobs including 8,900 auto manufacturing jobs. Final year of previous administration lost an average of 9,000 manufacturing jobs per month, or 111,000 total.
Industry surged last month to its highest level since June 2022, and returned to expansion territory after 26 consecutive months of contraction. 19,000 new construction jobs.
93% of new jobs created were in the private sector. In the last two years of the Biden administration, over 25% of added jobs were government jobs.

Apple announced a historic $500 billion investment, which will create 20,000 new US jobs.

Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure totaling $500 billion private investment.

TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in US based semiconductor chip manufacturing.

Eli Lilly and Company announced a $27 billion investment in its US based manufacturing.

CMA CGM will invest $20 billion in U.S. shipping and logistics, which will create 10,000 new US jobs.

DAMAC Properties announced $20 billion investment to build new US based data centers.

Wisconsin based Clarios, a leader in low-voltage energy storage, announced a $6 billion plan to expand its US based manufacturing.

Stellantis announced a $5 billion investment to reopen its Belvidere, Illinois, assembly plant 1,500 jobs restored.

For anyone wondering or wanting to compare stats, these figures are all sourced from an email that whitehouse.gov sent out yesterday (I get them, too). I'm not implying anything, just saying where they came from in case anyone was curious.

 

[brymoore]

Maybe all this is false (so feel free to fact check) but I just don't see how this means recession bound. I included previous administration numbers just for context of how things are portrayed by different members of the media and society under each administration. The sky was not falling under either administration in my opinion. Feel free to poke holes through all the data as a lot of you probably understand this stuff way better than me. This should at least get this thread on track with recession debate. Things are not perfect because there is certainly negative actions being taken, but I do think some good things are starting to take shape and it's not always all doom and gloom.

Gas down 11% from this time last year.
Fell for the third straight week lowest level in March since 2021. Under previous administration: increased on average 0.8% per month—and 35% in total.

Eggs over 25% cheaper than when President Trump took office. As supply increases, based on Secretary Rollins plan, prices will continue to fall.
Jan. 21, 2025: $6.550
Mar. 13, 2025: $4.8971
Difference: - $1.6529 (- 25.24%)

Mortgage rates down 35 basis points or roughly $900 in annual savings. Dropped for six consecutive weeks, to the lowest level seen in five months.

Airline fares fell 4% in February. Under previous administration: increased on average 0.6% per month—and 32% in total.

Crude Oil fallen nearly $11 (down 16%).

Grocery prices were flat month-over-month 0.0% in February. Under previous administration: increasing on average 0.4% per month—and 23% in total.

Inflation slowed in February, beating expectations, with core inflation at its lowest level in four years. Month-over-month was only 0.2% down from 0.5% in the month prior.
Core inflation dropped in February to its lowest year over year pace in nearly 4 years since April 2021. Wholesale inflation came in lower than expected in February.

151,000 jobs added in February.
10,000 new manufacturing jobs including 8,900 auto manufacturing jobs. Final year of previous administration lost an average of 9,000 manufacturing jobs per month, or 111,000 total.
Industry surged last month to its highest level since June 2022, and returned to expansion territory after 26 consecutive months of contraction. 19,000 new construction jobs.
93% of new jobs created were in the private sector. In the last two years of the Biden administration, over 25% of added jobs were government jobs.

Apple announced a historic $500 billion investment, which will create 20,000 new US jobs.

Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure totaling $500 billion private investment.

TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in US based semiconductor chip manufacturing.

Eli Lilly and Company announced a $27 billion investment in its US based manufacturing.

CMA CGM will invest $20 billion in U.S. shipping and logistics, which will create 10,000 new US jobs.

DAMAC Properties announced $20 billion investment to build new US based data centers.

Wisconsin based Clarios, a leader in low-voltage energy storage, announced a $6 billion plan to expand its US based manufacturing.

Stellantis announced a $5 billion investment to reopen its Belvidere, Illinois, assembly plant 1,500 jobs restored.

The Inflation and job numbers are the important ones.

Do people have jobs and are items costing them more money. The U.S. is a consumer society.

Inflation is going up due to the tariffs. It’s already being experienced in the steel markets. Projects being delayed/cancelled due to the cost of steel. US steel manufacturers raised its prices to match the tariff price. Other markets being tariffed are having the same experience.

The result of the federal layoffs aren’t showing in the labor reports yet. The whole scenario seems to be in a yo yo process on who gets to come back to work. The effect could be large or small, depending on the final numbers. The Fed government is one of the largest in the country.

The other employment question is are employers going to hire or replace employees. The whipshaw action on tariffs and other measures has the business market cautious. They are treading water to see where these actions lead the economy and their respective businesses. The actions of the administration does not give confidence to the business community.

The “experts”, Goldman Sachs and the like all raised the forecast percentages for recession this year.

Does this mean the U.S. is going to have a recession? No. The economy was strong coming into January. Goldman has been wrong about its recession forecasts for the past decade.

I think it comes down to the actions of the administration. A further trade war with our allies does nothing good for the US economy. However, tax cuts could boost spending offsetting some of the tariff issues.

I’m short, maybe there will be a recession this year.

 

[Potsie]

The Inflation and job numbers are the important ones.

Do people have jobs and are items costing them more money. The U.S. is a consumer society.

Inflation is going up due to the tariffs. It’s already being experienced in the steel markets. Projects being delayed/cancelled due to the cost of steel. US steel manufacturers raised its prices to match the tariff price. Other markets being tariffed are having the same experience.

This.

I’d have to take my shoes off to count the projects that I’ve seen put on the back burner in the last two months.

Stuff that had a borderline ROI instantly were moth balled, commercial and residential rents are dropping, building permits issued each month is dropping like a rock.

 

[Nick87]

I’d have to take my shoes off to count the projects that I’ve seen put on the back burner in the last two months.

That was Chicagoland last year. Chalked it up to an election year. Supposedly some of the bigger ones are back on for this year. We will see.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Really surprised this made it 4 pages without a count down or cheese post!

 

[mtmuley]

This.

I’d have to take my shoes off to count the projects that I’ve seen put on the back burner in the last two months.

Stuff that had a borderline ROI instantly were moth balled, commercial and residential rents are dropping, building permits issued each month is dropping like a rock.

The company I work for in Montana is years out on residential projects under contract. Our client base and market isn't the norm, but we are and always have been moving ahead. mtmuley

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

For anyone wondering or wanting to compare stats, these figures are all sourced from an email that whitehouse.gov sent out yesterday (I get them, too). I'm not implying anything, just saying where they came from in case anyone was curious.

Precisely why I said to fact check and poke holes and debate the threads topic. Here is what's being said tho.

 

[rjthehunter]

The company I work for in Montana is years out on residential projects under contract. Our client base and market isn't the norm, but we are and always have been moving ahead. mtmuley

This is what we have going on in MN. There's a lot of work. A lot of projects across the Midwest that are pushing forward. I'm on the commercial side of things and I personally have 5 projects between $150k and $16mil going on right now.

 

[TOGIE]

Lots of companies posting not so great earnings and revising guidance down. Hardly a single one not citing tariffs (among other factors that were already piling up regardless) in that guidance.

 

[Archer86]

Biden did try to help USA solor production. By putting huge tarrifs on import panels. Where's the outrage?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-builders-brace-higher-costs-biden-hikes-tariffs-2024-05-23/

It's funny how everyone complaining about tarriffs ignored this.

 

[brymoore]

It's funny how everyone complaining about tarriffs ignored this.

Nobody’s buying solar panels.

 

[Archer86]

Nobody’s buying solar panels.

I dont know there was a thread not long ago where someone was saying they had a friend that had a busniess installing solar panels and he was making tons of money selling them

 

[Bonasababy]

This is what we have going on in MN. There's a lot of work. A lot of projects across the Midwest that are pushing forward. I'm on the commercial side of things and I personally have 5 projects between $150k and $16mil going on right now.

Have fun with all the change requests as supply costs skyrocket!

 

[rjthehunter]

Have fun with all the change requests as supply costs skyrocket!

Only 1 project that isn't under contract yet that I'm seeing increases on. New proposals going out are only good for a couple of weeks with material escalation clauses listed. Not really a problem. This is not the first time prices have fluctuated, and I guarantee it won't be the last!

 

[BigHornRam]

Only 1 project that isn't under contract yet that I'm seeing increases on. New proposals going out are only good for a couple of weeks with material escalation clauses listed. Not really a problem. This is not the first time prices have fluctuated, and I guarantee it won't be the last!

I was in Bozeman last weekend. The amount of construction going on there, especially during the winter time, was impressive.

 

[Beignet]

It's funny how everyone complaining about tarriffs ignored this.

That policy goof really crushed the economy. Count me as outraged!