Quick thoughts on non resident random draw

bts09

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So I'm seeing a lot of people posting disappointment about not getting tags that they thought were more or less guaranteed. So I thought I might open a discussion about what the draw odds are telling us. I’m not specifically talking about point-creep (which is a real thing and well-documented on this site and requires much more math than I care to do). But in my quick glancing at the non-resident any antelope random draw (which is something I assume most newcomers to this page are following), I see a couple of interesting things.

(So for those new readers, this is the draw that doesn’t pay attention to points and just places all non-resident applicants on equal footing—so many first time Wyoming antelope hunters look at these numbers because they can be used to try to predict what your odds of drawing a tag are if you have no points and are a non-resident—though as you’ll see, the predictive power is waning.)

First, it seems like people are actually paying attention to (and playing) the odds game. If you look at the numbers, the areas that experienced the largest percentage increase in applicants tend to be the areas that were easier to draw last year. So for example, Unit 11 last year had 41 tags for 84 first-choice applicants, or roughly a 49% draw success rate. That’s a high rate. This year, Unit 11 had 42 tags for a whopping 173 first-choice applicants, or a 24% success rate. Take Unit 25. Last year, a 100% success rate, with 106 tags for 86 first-choice applicants. This year, it actually had more tags to allocate (129), but a success rate of just 79% because of the 163 (roughly double last year’s) applicants. Outside of Unit 102 (I can’t even begin to guess what happened there), Unit 26 might be the most stark example. Last year, it had 262 tags for only 93 first-choice applicants—in fact, the total applicant pool (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) for that Unit was only 319 against 262 tags—so more than 80% of the people applying for a tag in that unit, regardless of preference, could have gotten one. This year, similar number of tags (243), but 235 first choice applicants. So still a 100% success rate for first-choicers, but then almost 0% for anyone else.

Second observation is that some of the biggest jumps occurred for the somehow-special tags (the #2 tags, which denote a later season, within half-mile of irrigated land, etc). Look at Unit 46. The Type 2 tag (later season start) last year was about a 54% draw—32 tags against 59 applicants. This year, an unreal drop to 13% at 24 tags against 181 applicants. Unit 77-2 is a good example, too—33% draw odds last year, 3% this year. There’s really no good reason to apply for those tags unless you’re playing the odds, which it seems like substantially more people did this year.

Final observation is, it looks like preferences shifted in ways that are not all bad news for those of us who oftentimes apply without any accumulated points. That is, every unit did not get harder to draw, and in fact, some were substantially easier. Unit 9, for example, which had a 39% success rate last year for first-choice applicants went up to 47%. Unit 43 went from 23% to 35%. There are 6 or 7 units based on my quick look that fit this pattern—a meaningful increase in the chances of drawing with no points.

Would love to hear peoples’ thoughts. My take away is, as more information gets out there (this site, etc), people are doing a better job of predicting their odds and maybe changing their application habits . But because of that, it will open up some opportunities in units that have historically been difficult to draw, as people begin to realize their long-shot odds. The real downside, though, is that we non-residents are rapidly running out of any “safe draw” units with no points. I’ll guess that for a few more years, you’ll be able to guarantee yourself a tag with no points for a “special” (i.e. twice the price) license, but that soon, the days of non-resident hunters being able to guarantee themselves a tag without points will be gone.
 
I was shocked at the odds in what used to be gimme units and mid tier units sky rocket. Hell even doe/fawn tags that have been OTC after the 2nd draw couldn't even be drawn as a first choice. its quite discouraging to have many years in and come close to drawing a mid tier tag to have point creep sky rocket by 3+ points in one year. I agree the go hunt, huntinfool, etc are shifting from premier units to hey guys look at these easy to draw tags. you might as well go after them so you can hunt every year and maybe find a good buck. I hate those "consultants" that are spoon feeding readily available info to lazy hunters and totally screwing over the hunters that don't pay someone to do their homework for them.
 
I was shocked at the odds in what used to be gimme units and mid tier units sky rocket. Hell even doe/fawn tags that have been OTC after the 2nd draw couldn't even be drawn as a first choice. its quite discouraging to have many years in and come close to drawing a mid tier tag to have point creep sky rocket by 3+ points in one year. I agree the go hunt, huntinfool, etc are shifting from premier units to hey guys look at these easy to draw tags. you might as well go after them so you can hunt every year and maybe find a good buck. I hate those "consultants" that are spoon feeding readily available info to lazy hunters and totally screwing over the hunters that don't pay someone to do their homework for them.

Kinda amazing that we are seeing this overall decline in hunters but this massive spike in western hunting. Seems like the untapped market for go-hunt would be the midwest/east, if you could build a service that helped people hunt east of the Mississippi you could make a killing.
 
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Kinda amazing that we are seeing this overall decline in hunters but this massive spike in western hunting. Seems like the untapped market for go-hunt would be the midwest/east, if you build a build a service that helped people hunt east of the Mississippi you could make a killing.
All those Midwest boys and girls finally learning that shooting whitetail at 20 yards while strapped to a tree isn't all that and a bag of chips. Lol.
 
Great breakdown, OP. This was my first time playing the western game and I lost- perfect example of why I never go to casinos 😂

I did learn a fair amount and will hopefully be better prepared (and have another point) next year. One of the biggest things that helped me was finding the Draw Demand sheet. I found those much easier to read than the interactive drop-down boxes on each unit on the WY site. Took me long enough to find out those pages existed 🤦🏻‍♂️

I notice 72 and 73 doe tags had more applicants this year as well.

Anybody want to pass a landowner’s info over for a leftover tag? 😜
 
I wonder if some of the increase for the easier to draw units is due to people dumping their points due to the higher tag costs?

Yes! I have a lot of PPs for my wife, my kids and myself (elk, deer and goats). We are getting out of the game over the next 4-5 years.
 
Take a look at what happened in 42 and 52, particularly in the special, for the last couple of years and your head will explode. I’d like to know what service, subscription, or thread caused that.
 
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I wonder if some of the increase for the easier to draw units is due to people dumping their points due to the higher tag costs?

Absolutely are applicants that patiently played the point-building game but see the point hikes and credit card fees and tag prices increasing faster than inflation so realize the waiting game is starting to add up to real money. I think a lot of the "max pool" got scared leading into the 2018 draw so actually applied for one or more species last year only to not draw a tag then figured out is best to drop down from the blue chips in order to draw a tag so can hunt after waiting over a decade for a primo tag. Word got out and additional Max Point folks applied for the first time in 2019 as well as those who failed to draw a tag in 2018.

This logjam of applicants that for the past decade were merely point-builders will subside as they draw a tag and, much like Colorado is observing, see points fall to 0 trip the trigger for some non-residents to not get back in line to wait for 10 to 20 years to draw that same tag. Elk and deer will suffer more than pronghorn. Sheep and moose had this fallout and "drop down" effect by non-residents the past few years as well.

The economy is due for a pullback as well which makes it harder for non-residents to front $1000s of dollars if apply for several species and for a kid or two. The non-resident point creep will recede to less than 1 point per year for all but the top tier units. If you are happy hunting a middle of the road unit then hold on until 2025 when the active applicant herd has thinned out compared to now. Say you can draw a middling unit for deer every 7 years then figure the cost of 6 bonus points plus tag price and if that looks like something that fits your goals and budget then you are in luck. Time is your friend in this case.
 
The non-resident point creep will recede to less than 1 point per year for all but the top tier units. If you are happy hunting a middle of the road unit then hold on until 2025 when the active applicant herd has thinned out compared to now.

I for one would welcome that. There's a lot of room between the "top tier" units and the stuff that I can expect to draw with no points or one point.
 
Check out the NR PP Regular Draw. In many 0 point units people dropped 7-13 points.

Wow, you're right! Who's the poor sap who blew thirteen preference points to draw that tag in Unit 25? Bueller? Bueller?
 
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