Montana Mule Deer Mismanagement

[rogerthat]

So, if this is the case that the aging is voluntary, I can very well envision a scenario where hunters who believe they have older deer would want to have them aged out of curiosity to see how old their buck is. If that’s the scenario it could definitely bias the results.

Personally, I know that I am much more interested in learning the age of either a “trophy” animal or an old animal than on that seems to me to be young.

Now convince fwp of this, but I whole heartedly agree with this and this to me is the only plausible way I have been able to square the data with my observations

 

[Gerald Martin]

No they are lab aging them cementum annuli. I was surprised as well.

Is there any details of how they selected which deer were aged?

 

[rogerthat]

Is there any details of how they selected which deer were aged?

Anything brought in for Cwd testing where the whole head was brought in

 

[Gerald Martin]

Now convince fwp of this, but I whole heartedly agree with this and this to me is the only plausible way I have been able to square the data with my observations

Perhaps you and I have been smoking the same thing…?. Might be coloring our observations… I hear oxygen can have some interesting effects….

 

[Forkyfinder]

Perhaps you and I have been smoking the same thing…?. Might be coloring our observations… I hear oxygen can have some interesting effects….

Anything brought in for Cwd testing where the whole head was brought in

Wouldnt cwd testing ages exhibit a lack of bias in the data?

 

[Gerald Martin]

Anything brought in for Cwd testing where the whole head was brought in

Given the publicity from FWP that older age class bucks are have the highest prevalence of testing positive for CWD I know I would be much more likely to submit an older deer for aging and testing than a younger deer.

If the intention of the survey was to establish an average age of buck harvest the sampling protocol would most likely be different.

If the age survey was a derivative of testing for CWD then I’m not tracking how relevant the median age of the bucks in the CWD testing is to the average age of mule deer bucks harvested. Maybe I’m just being obtuse or stubborn because these results are contradictory to my experience and personal conclusions.

 

[rogerthat]

Wouldnt cwd testing ages exhibit a lack of bias in the data?

Maybe. I guess what drives you to get a buck Cwd tested?

 

[Gerald Martin]

Wouldnt cwd testing ages exhibit a lack of bias in the data?

How so?

 

[Forkyfinder]

How so?

Maybe. I guess what drives you to get a buck Cwd tested?

The people i know who generally get something tested for cwd would be something a person does out of an abundance of caution. Not necessarily because they saw it in the animal.

 

[Forkyfinder]

If the age survey was a derivative of testing for CWD then I’m not tracking how relevant the median age of the bucks in the CWD testing is to the average age of mule deer bucks harvested.

Median is a better representation of what a person would think of as "typical" especially in a skewed statistical distribution.

I.e. heres 11 dead mule deer ages

1
1
1
1
1
1
5
5
5
5
5

Median age is 1 and average age is almost 3

 

[Gerald Martin]

Median is a better representation of what a person would think of as "typical" especially in a skewed statistical distribution.

I.e. heres 11 dead mule deer ages

1
1
1
1
1
1
5
5
5
5
5

Median age is 1 and average age is almost 3

Hence in a scenario where there’s publicly about older bucks being more likely to have CWD and hunters know that, there could be a bias towards older deer being brought for testing by the hunters who are bringing the deer. The bias doesn’t necessarily have to be from FWP skewing towards a predetermined outcome for it to not be an accurate representation of the average age of buck harvest.

If as @DFS represented there were 450 bucks submitted for testing at a time when @ 5200 were harvested it wouldn’t take that strong of a bias of what hunters choose to submit for testing to skew the median towards 4.5.

 

[INMT]

What about the very last pic with the two bucks?

They both look young. The 2x3 is bigger body but doesn’t necessarily look old.

 

[DFS]

Hence in a scenario where there’s publicly about older bucks being more likely to have CWD and hunters know that, there could be a bias towards older deer being brought for testing by the hunters who are bringing the deer. The bias doesn’t necessarily have to be from FWP skewing towards a predetermined outcome for it to not be an accurate representation of the average age of buck harvest.

If as @DFS represented there were 450 bucks submitted for testing at a time when @ 5200 were harvested it wouldn’t take that strong of a bias of what hunters choose to submit for testing to skew the median towards 4.5.

That wasn’t a typo 52000

Edit my numbers might be off on samples I will see if I can get more accurate info tomorrow.

 

[antlerradar]

I don’t have the data but I think they aged 450ish bucks out of the maybe 52000ish bucks that were harvested during that time period, and it was voluntary.

I think the voluntary, might bet the reason for the older age deer. No one is bothering to send in the teeth from the forky they shot. On the other hand most people are curious how old the buck is when they happen to shoot a quality buck. Voluntary is not a random sample.

 

[antlerradar]

Anything brought in for Cwd testing where the whole head was brought in

Could be some sample bias here, From all I have heard it is older bucks that are most likely to have CWD, shoot a forky and you are likely not worried about CWD, Shoot a buck that looks to have some age and you are more worried about CWD.

 

[Gerald Martin]

That wasn’t a typo 52000

Edit my numbers might be off on samples I will see if I can get more accurate info tomorrow.

I totally misread your original post as 5200. 52,000 is an even greater opportunity for skewed results.

 

[antlerradar]

Whatever the feelings are - the data had better be on your side for any chance of big change.

Guess we'll just wait and see.

People tend to think that the proposal is all about more quality bucks. It is not.

 

[8andcounting]

People tend to think that the proposal is all about more quality bucks. It is not.

This is why it’s not gonna fly - lots of folks think it’s about more quality bucks meaning to them less opportunity

 

[antlerradar]

State wide LE is hardly more opportunity.

 

[cgasner1]

Could be some sample bias here, From all I have heard it is older bucks that are most likely to have CWD, shoot a forky and you are likely not worried about CWD, Shoot a buck that looks to have some age and you are more worried about CWD.

Turns out they are all old mountain warriors