Montana Drawing Statistics Data Question

[Beignet]

Maybe a dumb question, but I don't know the dumb answer either way.

When I look over past detailed bonus point drawing statistics for Montana there's always a row in both the R and NR data that has an empty "number of points" cell, but still lists the number of applicants in the next cell over.

What's going on with the points for these applicants? There seems to be a lot of them in some units.

Attaching a screenshot example from 2020 results for the most top secret honey hole mule deer unit in the state. The rows I'm asking about are highlighted in yellow.

 

[golfer]

I’m hoping others chime in on this as well as I’ve wondered about this in the past.

 

[Stone_Ice_1]

I have always been under the impression that those were the counts of people we did not choose to buy a bonus point. The bonus points column when it says 0 is those that bought a bonus point but don't have any yet because they haven't applied in previous years.

I could be wrong, just what I assumed from looking at this in the past.

 

[Beignet]

I have always been under the impression that those were the counts of people we did not choose to buy a bonus point. The bonus points column when it says 0 is those that bought a bonus point but don't have any yet because they haven't applied in previous years.

I could be wrong, just what I assumed from looking at this in the past.

That was my best guess as well, but wasn’t 100% sure.

 

[lapuahunter]

Where do you navigate on the FWP site to gather that information? Obviously my 8 points wasn't good enough for me to draw that tag this year! LOL

 

[Beignet]

Run "FWP Drawing Statistics" through the search engine of your choice and go FWP's page. Then choose the critter you're interested in and click on “detailed bonus point drawing statistics” and it’ll give you back a spreadsheet.

Edited to remove link as I'm not sure how strict the "no URL" rule is and want to play by the rules.

 

[EYJONAS!]

Those are the participants that don't participate in the bonus point system. So they click "no" instead of "yes" when the question comes up if you want to participate

 

[phutch30]

There's really only two drawing statistics... 0% and 100%...the breakdown in bonus point drawing success changes every year and is really just to make people feel better about waiting 18 yrs to draw a tag..or drawing it your first try

 

[8andcounting]

There's really only two drawing statistics... 0% and 100%...the breakdown in bonus point drawing success changes every year and is really just to make people feel better about waiting 18 yrs to draw a tag..or drawing it your first try

Exactly . This is the point I was trying to make yesterday In the other thread about the draw. Some people just don’t comprehend. It’s still a random draw

 

[Beignet]

There's really only two drawing statistics... 0% and 100%...the breakdown in bonus point drawing success changes every year and is really just to make people feel better about waiting 18 yrs to draw a tag..or drawing it your first try

Exactly . This is the point I was trying to make yesterday In the other thread about the draw. Some people just don’t comprehend. It’s still a random draw

This is why I shot for the moon this year. Figured some lucky NR had a chance with just a few points (or no points or 20 points).

Think I may shoot a little lower next time instead of stacking them up in hopes of drawing fabled, over applied unit.

 

[phutch30]

I just put in for where I want to hunt....and wait. some times its 25+yrs and sometimes its a lot shorter. Chasing draw odds doesnt work IMO plus you end up in a unit you dont have any info on.

 

[Walkalot]

So bonus points dont do anything to help draw odds. I thought they were squared to give u a better chance. U would think the draw would show that statisticaly. Mathmatically and percentage wise it should represent that well if points are squared.

 

[Schaaf]

So bonus points dont do anything to help draw odds. I thought they were squared to give u a better chance. U would think the draw would show that statisticaly. Mathmatically and percentage wise it should represent that well if points are squared.

They do help improve draw odds. It is not a linear system.

 

[The Hedgehog]

They do help improve draw odds. It is not a linear system.

a few years ago i used those drawing odds spreadsheets to determine how much having max points helped where I applied for sheep. The odds just based on number of applicants and permits was a little over 1% and the odds taking into account all the applicants and the squared points they had resulted in close to 4% chance. I think there were a max of 16 or 17 points then. Reality is, even with max points, odds are against you ever drawing in your life.

 

[BuckRut]

Exactly . This is the point I was trying to make yesterday In the other thread about the draw. Some people just don’t comprehend. It’s still a random draw

What you don't comprehend is that statistics only provide predictable results over a large number of runs and not 37 draws out of thousands of numbers. I each individual draw of a number the higher points do have a much better chance. If we drew more like one third of the applicants you would start to see much more of a gradient across the numbers.

 

[BuzzH]

a few years ago i used those drawing odds spreadsheets to determine how much having max points helped where I applied for sheep. The odds just based on number of applicants and permits was a little over 1% and the odds taking into account all the applicants and the squared points they had resulted in close to 4% chance. I think there were a max of 16 or 17 points then. Reality is, even with max points, odds are against you ever drawing in your life.

Correct and over time the squared bonus point system give you no statistical improved odds.

More tags, less applicants gives you better odds...not squared points.

 

[Beignet]

a few years ago i used those drawing odds spreadsheets to determine how much having max points helped where I applied for sheep. The odds just based on number of applicants and permits was a little over 1% and the odds taking into account all the applicants and the squared points they had resulted in close to 4% chance. I think there were a max of 16 or 17 points then. Reality is, even with max points, odds are against you ever drawing in your life.

I’ll show myself back over to the Unlimited Sheep thread now.

 

[Walkalot]

Buzz what your saying is make it all limited entry. I agree

 

[Schaaf]

a few years ago i used those drawing odds spreadsheets to determine how much having max points helped where I applied for sheep. The odds just based on number of applicants and permits was a little over 1% and the odds taking into account all the applicants and the squared points they had resulted in close to 4% chance. I think there were a max of 16 or 17 points then. Reality is, even with max points, odds are against you ever drawing in your life.

For sheep, certainly. Max points gets a guy 4% vs 1 point having less than 1/10 of a percent.

500 applicants maxed out, each with their name in the hat 289 times fighting for 25 tags is a joke.

 

[BuzzH]

Buzz what your saying is make it all limited entry. I agree

Huh?