Idaho MSG Applications - Who's In

[BAKPAKR]

I drew!

A stick figure?

 

[brymoore]

A stick figure?

 

[Firedude]

You didn't ask for this, I'm just using your example to show how random odds work over time.

It is often easier to think that with 15% odds you should draw after 100/15 or 6.7 years. But it isn't that simple because it is random and the odds can never be 100%.

The odds of being drawn at least once over a specific time period is given by the equation 1-(1-P)^n. Where P is the probability of being drawn in each individual year and n is the number of years. In your case 1-0.85^10= 80.3%. So assuming a 15% chance each year, the odds that you will have drawn at least once in 10 years is 80.3%. In a truly random drawing it will never reach 100% but applying consistently does increase your odds over time. After 15 years the odds that you will have drawn go up to 91.2%. After 20 years it goes up to 96.1%.

The wrinkle is if the odds decline over that time period. Then you would calculate by taking 1- [(1-P)*(1-P)*(1-P)*...(1-P)] where P is the odds for each year you apply. If the odds over the 10 year period drop by 5% (0.5% per year), then your probability of being drawn once in that period would be 74.1%.

I'm pretty aware of the actual odds. I like illustrating it too because most think 1 in 10 random means once in 10 years. Far from the truth. I haven't seen it calculated that way though. Thanks. Depending on which math, statistics, or gambling book you read you can also figure in other things like new people in the draw(with their own new odds.), time left to draw, and even add in that each given year is still 9 to 1 against you.

After that math I start putting in other states as well.

 

[cgasner1]

I'm pretty aware of the actual odds. I like illustrating it too because most think 1 in 10 random means once in 10 years. Far from the truth. I haven't seen it calculated that way though. Thanks. Depending on which math, statistics, or gambling book you read you can also figure in other things like new people in the draw(with their own new odds.), time left to draw, and even add in that each given year is still 9 to 1 against you.

After that math I start putting in other states as well.

I think a lot of guy use things like GOHUNT also trying to chase odds on the nr aside and it causes swings from year to year. I use to now I just apply

 

[seeth07]

I think a lot of guy use things like GOHUNT also trying to chase odds on the nr aside and it causes swings from year to year. I use to now I just apply

I actually use it in reverse for my ID moose app and every year the same thing happens with the area I apply in. There are three units all bordering each other and I'd be happy if we got a tag in any of the three so we apply in the unit that has the worst draw odds from the previous year and it always ends up being the least applied for unit of the three.

 

[Firedude]

I think a lot of guy use things like GOHUNT also trying to chase odds on the nr aside and it causes swings from year to year. I use to now I just apply

I did to until I got some books on statistics and odds. Then started mathing it out similar to idelkslayer. Definitely changed my strategy for tags. A bit ago I had a buddy over for beers and he's done every tag draw subscription still wondering why he can't draw. He's a resident who put in for 30 years on "good" odds hunts in Idaho. No tags... "well here's why." And showed him.

Basically at the end I said, "There's 3 ways of getting screwed in Vegas. The casino, the whore house, and prison. Choose wisely.