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Housing Appreciation and Inflation: Future Outlook?

Boomers ain't moving.


my in laws are one of those. not only are they not moving they doubled down and put in a pool.

until they can't take care of the place they intend to hold on to a rather large home that can accommodate all the of their children and grandchildren at once for holidays and staycations.
 
One thing that hasnt been mentioned - the rise of vacation/airbnb/vrbo homes.

It significantly changed the economic value of a home. Caretaking, contracting, and running a rental business is miles easier than it used to be. And for that reason - amongst others - im not sure how truly "over-valued" the market is.
 
One thing that hasnt been mentioned - the rise of vacation/airbnb/vrbo homes.

It significantly changed the economic value of a home. Caretaking, contracting, and running a rental business is miles easier than it used to be. And for that reason - amongst others - im not sure how truly "over-valued" the market is.
I'm sure it was mentioned somewhere else, but it is a good observation. All of those things contribute to my view that we don't have a housing problem. If we look at dwellings and households, they aren't that far out of alignment. But when people own multiple houses (6months in X location and 6 months in Y) or ABNB steps into the picture, it causes a lot of problems.
 
I'm sure it was mentioned somewhere else, but it is a good observation. All of those things contribute to my view that we don't have a housing problem. If we look at dwellings and households, they aren't that far out of alignment. But when people own multiple houses (6months in X location and 6 months in Y) or ABNB steps into the picture, it causes a lot of problems.
The median price of a home in the US currently as of 2024 is $417,000, and the average median income to buy on these houses is $110,000 yearly income. This is up from a $76,000 required income in 2020. Please explain how we don't have a housing problem? As a 22 year old and a member of Gen Z, the future prospects of buying a house are very dim. Many people will never be able to afford houses.
 
The median price of a home in the US currently as of 2024 is $417,000, and the average median income to buy on these houses is $110,000 yearly income. This is up from a $76,000 required income in 2020. Please explain how we don't have a housing problem? As a 22 year old and a member of Gen Z, the future prospects of buying a house are very dim. Many people will never be able to afford houses.
Prices are not the same as inventory. I will agree we have an affordability problem. But that is partially because median incomes haven't kept the pace with what they previously did in the 60's-80's, and we built larger and larger homes. We need more multifamily units (rentals and condos) but Boomers, as the article says, don't want to move. At its core, it's a demographic problem combined with some structural problems in the tax code.
 
The median price of a home in the US currently as of 2024 is $417,000, and the average median income to buy on these houses is $110,000 yearly income. This is up from a $76,000 required income in 2020. Please explain how we don't have a housing problem? As a 22 year old and a member of Gen Z, the future prospects of buying a house are very dim. Many people will never be able to afford houses.

-Get married, two combined incomes can easily buy a starter home for the average price in most of the country.
-Or, move to a place where homes are affordable (that's what I did for my first one), remote work options allow you to live pretty much anywhere you want now too.
-Or, buy an apartment or condo for your first place and build equity, it doesn't have to be an expensive house to start out.
-Or, buy a dump for less than the average, fix it up and flip it into a better one, (I also have done this, three times now).
-Just do something other than live in your folks' basement...
 
my in laws are one of those. not only are they not moving they doubled down and put in a pool.

until they can't take care of the place they intend to hold on to a rather large home that can accommodate all the of their children and grandchildren at once for holidays and staycations.

Good for them, I don't think anybody should have to move to help out new home buyers.
 
Good for them, I don't think anybody should have to move to help out new home buyers.

they view it in many ways as a way to continue to gift and bless their children and their spouses.

not least of which is it's yet another nest egg they're relying on to help ensure that the costs of elderly care don't fall on us. when the time comes they'll sell it and burn the ridiculous amount of cash they'll net on nursing homes.
 
I don't think people owning 7 AirBnB properties is good for the country as a whole.

Would be totally fine taxing short term rentals into oblivion.
Idk how it doesn’t happen government wants their cut of anything that isn’t drug money. Then they still want their cut
 
The American Dream is still very much alive. If a young person works some throughout high school, gets decent grades, stays out of jail, doesn't have a child, goes to an affordable college and gets a degree in something useful (or works in a trade), it is very doable.

However, if a young person makes financial mistakes and "needs" daily $10 lattes, designer clothes, a new car, the best cell phone plan, top tier cable/Netflix, etc and loves to party, well, then, it is going to be difficult. Life is all about decisions and if people make bad ones, nobody owes them a 5 bedroom house with a white picket fence!
 
I don't think people owning 7 AirBnB properties is good for the country as a whole.

Would be totally fine taxing short term rentals into oblivion.

That's fair, but rentals are a separate issue, and folks with just one rental are really going to take it in the shorts soon because of those multiple-rental owners. I'm in the real estate industry and I've read many articles over the past year or two blaming Boomers (or anybody else for that matter) for not moving up in house size and making their homes available for sale to first-timers. I really can't hold it against anybody for wanting to keep a 2-3% interest rate and staying put.
 
I don't think people owning 7 AirBnB properties is good for the country as a whole.

Would be totally fine taxing short term rentals into oblivion.
Maybe I am in the minority but I own zero rental properties and comments like this drive me nuts. Is it really bad or is it just jealousy? If they can make money doing it good for them and keep the government’s grubby greedy hands out of it.
 
That's fair, but rentals are a separate issue, and folks with just one rental are really going to take it in the shorts soon because of those multiple-rental owners. I'm in the real estate industry and I've read many articles over the past year or two blaming Boomers (or anybody else for that matter) for not moving up in house size and making their homes available for sale to first-timers. I really can't hold it against anybody for wanting to keep a 2-3% interest rate and staying put.

I don't blame people for staying to keep a low rate mortgage. But I don't think that is an issue (although it's not helping). In survey below, 77% of Boomers said they are staying put. Even as they become empty nesters, they are not downsizing. Many are not even choosing to live in a single place, rather they split time between homes - i.e. "snow birds".

"While baby boomers—defined as Americans between the ages of 58 and 76 in 2022—comprise just over 20% of the U.S. population, they account for nearly 38% of homeowners nationwide."

https://constructioncoverage.com/research/baby-boomer-dominant-housing-markets


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Maybe I am in the minority but I own zero rental properties and comments like this drive me nuts. Is it really bad or is it just jealousy? If they can make money doing it good for them and keep the government’s grubby greedy hands out of it.

But setting up an ABNB under a LLC means you get to write off all expenses on the taxes. So 1) it takes inventory off the market to make a rental and 2) it inflates prices. I have no problem with ABNB or rentals, but there should be zero tax benefits to doing so, particularly over the average working American who wants to own.
 
I don't think people owning 7 AirBnB properties is good for the country as a whole.

Would be totally fine taxing short term rentals into oblivion.
Why? Curious not sarcasm.

I heard Hawaii main island is looking to stop Airbnb/vrbos completely

While I was there, we stayed at an Airbnb because we don't like the whole hotel mass tourism zombies.

It was great! Buy food, cook, etc.
 
Maybe I am in the minority but I own zero rental properties and comments like this drive me nuts. Is it really bad or is it just jealousy? If they can make money doing it good for them and keep the government’s grubby greedy hands out of it.

I know of several examples of people selling rentals (homes they bought 30+ yrs ago in CA and Seattle area) for $1.5M+ and then buying 2-3 rentals/airbnbs in Coeur d Alene area thru 1031 exchanges (tax free). The gov't has had their grubby hands in it for decades already.
 
I don't think people owning 7 AirBnB properties is good for the country as a whole.

Would be totally fine taxing short term rentals into oblivion.
I dont disagree. It tends to be a very localized problem - im sure miles city could use a few airbnbs and im also sure that bozeman housing prices/availability have been made dramatically worse by it.

However - I think when there is an unexpected economic slide though (hasnt happened and may not this cycle) those folks are going to get taken badly. If people stop spending on vacations - they dont have a way to pay the mortgage.
 
I know of several examples of people selling rentals (homes they bought 30+ yrs ago in CA and Seattle area) for $1.5M+ and then buying 2-3 rentals/airbnbs in Coeur d Alene area thru 1031 exchanges (tax free). The gov't has had their grubby hands in it for decades already.
My comment was towards a post stating they would support “taxing short term rentals into oblivion”. I understand 1031 exchange. I understand how some of these folks build wealth and I fail to see the problem. Court d Alene is nice and it’s no surprise it’s in high demand. A good friend of mine wants to move there and can’t afford to. Yet he is not pointing his fingers at other people who have worked, saved, leveraged, risked, invested and utilized smart tax advantaged strategies as the problem in his situation. I’m not the victim of wealthy people. Life isn’t fair and I have made choices and it’s not the governments job to intervene so I can have what I want when I want it. I am just a guy trying to provide for a family on a single income but the belief we should tax people who get in the way of what I want seems pretty selfish. People lack grit and they just want the government to step in rather than pulling up their boot straps and getting to work.

Ok, I’m off my soap box.
 

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