I’ve been curious about this myself. IIRC the refs have a little note saying something along the lines of there being fewer than fifty total elk within the area the tag is good for. If you were a resident and wanted to put in the work it would be hard not to give it a try. At the non-resident price plus travel that’s a fair bit of money for a long shot. If I were to do it, I would have to be in the state already, find the elk first and then buy the tag and go hunt them. I’m not sure if there’s a wait period between buying the tag and hunting. In NM you have buy OTC lion or Audad tags quite a bit in advance of hunting them.
In my estimation that sounds about right. I used to see "herds" of about 6-8. Now I see sign of 1-3 at a time, sometimes going a year without seeing any sign at all. I can practically name the single bull in the area I hunt based off of his tracks.... Or the two cows he knows....
My wife thinks that I bought the elk at a store, cause she's been with me and has never seen a single living animal on several trips. I had one hunt that lasted 15 minutes, the only cow I have taken in the area.
I showed up to scout one time, expecting to see nothing, since all the sign the three weeks prior was very old. I drove out there with my Dad I his 2004 cavalier. No coolers, no extra gear, but a rifle just in case. The last day of the date for OTC in that area, end of summer so daytime temps were almost 100 degrees. Parked the car at the end of a trail and walked about 100 feet to an overwatch position to wait for dawn to move down and check for sign. I lay down and check out the game trail that ran through the clearing 100 yards away, 100 feet in elevation below me. Too dark to see if it's freshly used, but wait, there's an elk sitting right there, too dark to take the shot. It gets up and walks away, darn. about 15 minutes later the sun is breaking well enough, and then I hear some crashing, four more cows walk through. I took my pick and shot, she slumped over right there, didn't take a step.
Now the work begins right? Long story short, with me packing her out while my Dad quartered her, we tried to beat the heat, but it was still 90 degrees by the time we were done, even with the vehicle being so damn close. Managed to fit every bit of her in the trunk of the cavalier, as tight a fit as it was without stuffing and mashing anything, a bull, no chance, but I could wrap the trunk in preparation for ice, the back seat I couldn't, and coolers wouldn't fit in the back. Grabbed ice at the gas station on the way home, etc. etc. Nothing was lost or spoiled, but we were lucky in that regard. It took years of going back, weekly, before I laid eyes on the next elk in the area. But there have also been poachings in the area (2-4 bulls IIRC) were killed and left sans heads and hides in that same AO I was scouting, and that was around the time pressure started increasing. Decreased sign ever since.
But you're right, I wouldn't chance the hunt unless I was local, given the amount of time I have been out there and seeing nothing years at a time, if I lived out of state I would rather do a CO OTC. My annual success rate works out to about 20%. But if you actually did it for every hunt.... It drops to a fraction of a percent. YMMV.