Flatland Crusoe
Member
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2014
- Messages
- 572
Its getting late in the draw cycle for the fall and I have failed to draw a pile of tags so far and I'm trying to figure out how many more applications I should apply for to on paper to have a decent shot at getting one tag without ending up with 3 tags on 6 days of vacation or just hunting OTC again this year. At this point I'd just like one first choice limited entry tag somewhere in the west as I'm now sitting on my 3rd year applying without success. I've done OTC and Leftover hunts both previous years and am building points in WY, MT, AZ and SD.
My question is does anyone else say I'm applying for 3 distinct draws with different states or species involved and I want to get a tag so my individual odds additively up to 90% to 130% (account for creep in odds) to draw one tag with limited vacation and a 1000+ miles to fly or drive. Here is an example:
Tag A 50% odds
Tag B 40% odds
Tag C 7% odds
If you apply for all 3 you have a 72% chance of not striking out (1-.5*.6*.93), 23% chance of getting 2 tags and 1.4% chance of getting all 3 tags. Additively if you applied for 100 years for all 3 with fixed odds you should get 97 tags in 100 years with 1 year with 3 tags, 23 years with 2 tags, 49 years with one tag and 27 years with no tag. Just wondering if other people play this game? If so do you have a self imposed cut off (20%, 10%, 5%) where you don't factor in tags you statistically won't draw every 5-10 years?
Clearly states like NM and ID without PP's you aren't really risking anything other than the money that a tag cost against future odds so that always changes the game somewhat. I fully understand you don't need limited entry tags to hunt the west an be successful, but I'd like to see some positive feed back that system in fact works once you start playing a significant number of times.
My question is does anyone else say I'm applying for 3 distinct draws with different states or species involved and I want to get a tag so my individual odds additively up to 90% to 130% (account for creep in odds) to draw one tag with limited vacation and a 1000+ miles to fly or drive. Here is an example:
Tag A 50% odds
Tag B 40% odds
Tag C 7% odds
If you apply for all 3 you have a 72% chance of not striking out (1-.5*.6*.93), 23% chance of getting 2 tags and 1.4% chance of getting all 3 tags. Additively if you applied for 100 years for all 3 with fixed odds you should get 97 tags in 100 years with 1 year with 3 tags, 23 years with 2 tags, 49 years with one tag and 27 years with no tag. Just wondering if other people play this game? If so do you have a self imposed cut off (20%, 10%, 5%) where you don't factor in tags you statistically won't draw every 5-10 years?
Clearly states like NM and ID without PP's you aren't really risking anything other than the money that a tag cost against future odds so that always changes the game somewhat. I fully understand you don't need limited entry tags to hunt the west an be successful, but I'd like to see some positive feed back that system in fact works once you start playing a significant number of times.
