New Mexico application

[rebjfan]

I am thinking about applying for some hunts in New Mexico for the first time. Can someone please explain why there are second and third choice on the hunt application? I understand the first, fourth and fifth choices, but is there any chance at all of drawing a high quality hunt on a second or third choice?

 

[Carnage2011]

Yes, New Mexico takes your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice before going into the next application.

 

[Bullshot]

I am thinking about applying for some hunts in New Mexico for the first time. Can someone please explain why there are second and third choice on the hunt application? I understand the first, fourth and fifth choices, but is there any chance at all of drawing a high quality hunt on a second or third choice?

New Mexico is basically a lottery ticket on choices 1-3. A chance, yes, but just has very low nonresident odds generally.

 

[cgasner1]

Be careful applying in New Mexico people don’t ever tell you about all the bears.

 

[rebjfan]

New Mexico is basically a lottery ticket on choices 1-3. A chance, yes, but just has very low nonresident odds generally.

Thank you, I just thought that if I have slim to no chance on the first choice hunt that I would have zero chance on a second or third choice hunt .

 

[WildWill]

Thank you, I just thought that if I have slim to no chance on the first choice hunt that I would have zero chance on a second or third choice hunt .

Just make sure your 1st choice has the worst odds and your 3rd has the best and you'll be all good. The only way you'd have zero chance is if you put a higher draw odds hunt before a lower odds one.

 

[Bmor19534]

It’s like a lottery system

 

[hank4elk]

It’s like a lottery system

It's a random draw, with 3 choices.

I usually draw my second choice,if I do. 3 3rds and one 1st...in 30+ years of apps.

 

[popeyoung12]

Fyi, The guide draw triples your odds.

 

[bulldawg10]

Fyi, The guide draw triples your odds.

Not sure if you are being serious or not...but no it doesn't.

In some hunt codes, the outfitter draw odds are even worse than the NR draw odds.

 

[popeyoung12]

I read that 50% of nr tags go to the guide draw. I just checked 10% goes to guide draw and 6% to non guide draw.

 

[bulldawg10]

I read that 50% of nr tags go to the guide draw. I just checked 10% goes to guide draw and 6% to non guide draw.

Correct, and in many hunt codes that means the outfitter pool get something like 5 tags and the NR pool gets 3 tags. But in some of those hunt codes there are more than double the number of applicants for the 10% of tags vs the 6% of tags.

This is how the 10% pool at times has even worse odds than the 6% pool

 

[popeyoung12]

just ran my apps in go hunt, guide vs. no guide draw as an nr, sheep, elk, deer were at least 2x the chance.

 

[bulldawg10]

just ran my apps in go hunt, guide vs. no guide draw as an nr, sheep, elk, deer were at least 2x the chance.

I pull the real data myself. It often is much different than what those services show, I have learned. You also are completing with your 1st choice vs 3rd choices of someone else, so those 2nd and 3rd choice applicants can not be disregarded, IMO.

Here is an example

2022 Data (Just happen to have it saved on my PC)
Unit 21A First Rifle
15 Total Draw Tags
1 Non-Res Tag / (1st - 3rd Choice Applicants) 83 Applicants = 1.2% draw odds
1 Outfitter Tag / (1st - 3rd Choice Applicants) 119 Applicant = .84% draw odds

Now if Instead look at 1st choice only

1 NR Tag / 32 1st Choice Applicants = 3.125% odds
1 Outfitter Tag / 87 1st Choice Applicants = 1.15% odds.

In this unit in 2022, NR actually had closer to 2x or so draw odds vs outfitter pool....but still very low odds either way.

 

[popeyoung12]

I pull the real data myself. It often is much different than what those services show, I have learned. You also are completing with your 1st choice vs 3rd choices of someone else, so those 2nd and 3rd choice applicants can not be disregarded, IMO.

Here is an example

2022 Data (Just happen to have it saved on my PC)
Unit 21A First Rifle
15 Total Draw Tags
1 Non-Res Tag / (1st - 3rd Choice Applicants) 83 Applicants = 1.2% draw odds
1 Outfitter Tag / (1st - 3rd Choice Applicants) 119 Applicant = .84% draw odds

Now if Instead look at 1st choice only

1 NR Tag / 32 1st Choice Applicants = 3.125% odds
1 Outfitter Tag / 87 1st Choice Applicants = 1.15% odds.

In this unit in 2022, NR actually had closer to 2x or so draw odds vs outfitter pool....but still very low odds either way.

All good. I probably spent 20 hours this year crunching stats in 7 states for 35 draws. I am great@ math and it still is a windscreen. My wife is an aerospace eng. Awesome math and I try to explain bonus vs. Pref. Pt. Vs. Random and her eyes glaze over. Lol.

 

[popeyoung12]

I pull the real data myself. It often is much different than what those services show, I have learned. You also are completing with your 1st choice vs 3rd choices of someone else, so those 2nd and 3rd choice applicants can not be disregarded, IMO.

Here is an example

2022 Data (Just happen to have it saved on my PC)
Unit 21A First Rifle
15 Total Draw Tags
1 Non-Res Tag / (1st - 3rd Choice Applicants) 83 Applicants = 1.2% draw odds
1 Outfitter Tag / (1st - 3rd Choice Applicants) 119 Applicant = .84% draw odds

Now if Instead look at 1st choice only

1 NR Tag / 32 1st Choice Applicants = 3.125% odds
1 Outfitter Tag / 87 1st Choice Applicants = 1.15% odds.

In this unit in 2022, NR actually had closer to 2x or so draw odds vs outfitter pool....but still very low odds either way.

Thx, very interesting. I wonder if other state guide draws are the same? Newberg made it too simple on his video.