Nevada elk odds

[utah400elk]

There have been several draw odds questions for various states lately. I have a little time on my hands and worked the odds out for Nevada Muzzleloader hunt in unit 76, 77, 79 and 81. This is one of the units I have tried to draw.

this is what I can up with according to the NDOW stats looking at all 5 choices:
Points. Draw Odds
0 = .02%
1 = .02%
2 = .07%
3 = .16%
4 = .28%
5 = .44%
6 = .63%
7 = .87%
8 = 1.1%
9 = 1.4%
10 = 1.7%
11 = 2.1%
12 = 2.5%
13 = 3%
14 = 3.5%
15 = 4%
16 = 4.5%
17 = 5.1%
18 = 5.7%

Eye opening for me. Almost a decade of applying for a 1% chance.

Good luck to everybody in the draws. Looks like we all might need it.

 

[npaden]

Toprut shows a little more optimistic picture than you. Still not very good though.

They show 1.0% at 5 points, 4.0% at 10 points and 8.7% for 15 points.

According to their article on Nevada draw odds, there are quite a few people that mess up their applications by putting their choices out of order and quite a few that don't list all 5 choices if I recall correctly. I'm sure you could search for their article on the subject if you wanted.

 

[npaden]

When it is all said and done, everyone is fighting for 1 tag in that draw so the odds are never going to be very good. Per Toprut there were 156 applicants across all point levels for that one tag.

 

[utah400elk]

I am not sure how they can up with their odds data. I simply added the total number of applicants, multiplied times their squared points for total number of entires. With only 1 tag...there are a lot of entries for just one tag.

For instance...

3 people applied with 18 points and since they square the points....that is 972 chances by just those three people for 4th and 5th choices.

Not sure how the compile their odds. I am going by the math. However, I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn last night. So there is that.

Good luck everybody.

 

[toprut]

For anyone who is curious, this details how all NR applicants applied for that hunt in '19. Choice order matters.

nv_1028_muzz_2019

Sheet1 app_year - 1,app_number - 3,residency - 4,successful_hunter_choice - 6,choice1 - 16,choice2 - 17,choice3 - 18,choice4 - 19,choice5 - 20,applicant_bonus_points - 21,party_bonus_points - 22 2019,164231_638,N,1021,1007,1001,1006,1028,18,18 2019,164228_026,N,1007,1021,1007,1001,1006,1028,18,1...

docs.google.com

 

[npaden]

Interesting that 5 of the 156 applicants for that tag actually drew elk tags that year, just 1 of them actually drew that elk tag.

Also interesting that the guy who drew only had that tag as his only choice.

 

[ImBillT]

I am not sure how they can up with their odds data. I simply added the total number of applicants, multiplied times their squared points for total number of entires. With only 1 tag...there are a lot of entries for just one tag.

For instance...

3 people applied with 18 points and since they square the points....that is 972 chances by just those three people for 4th and 5th choices.

Not sure how the compile their odds. I am going by the math. However, I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn last night. So there is that.

Good luck everybody.

The reason the odds are higher than 1/squared bonus point is that some of the applicants may have drawn a different hunt choice, and thus were removed from the drawing.

In the case of hunts with more than one tag, if a hunter 20pts get drawn first, it’s like 400 names get removed from the hat. So, odds are slightly better than 1/squared bonus point even if no one draws something else.

NV still has terrible odds. Only enter if you can afford to apply everywhere else that you want to hunt and still apply in NV.

 

[ImBillT]

Interesting that 5 of the 156 applicants for that tag actually drew elk tags that year, just 1 of them actually drew that elk tag.

Also interesting that the guy who drew only had that tag as his only choice.

With five choices possible per application, you gotta figure that a high percentage of applicants are in the drawing for four units other than the one they drew. I bet you there is a handful of applicants for every unit that end up drawing some other unit.

 

[Muley_Stalker]

With odds like that, i'd go fishing.

 

[lynlan1819]

You can sometimes get a tag the first year you put in,my brother drew a bull tag twice with no points,both here in Navada 4 years ago area 111,and in Arizona this year area 6a.
I am not so lucky with 14 points and no tag yet.

 

[Gr8bawana]

No elk in Nevada, please move along.

 

[backcountry_sassn]

Nevada has some of the most complicated odds to figure out. Just pay for gohunt. Not only does it give you the best idea of what your odds are, they also do a lot for conservation.

 

[backcountry_sassn]

I’ll also add to what’s already been mentioned, one tough thing to add to the equation is Nevada looks at all 5 choices before going to the next application number. So someone who may have applied for that tag on there 2nd-5th choice could have drawn an earlier choice. So with 9 points, there is 20 hunter with the same or more point who didn’t have it as their first choice. So they could have drawn on earlier choices making their remaining choices obsolete. Now i know for non residents, not all of them drew before but you get the picture. So your odds would be a lot better than 1% especially since only 3 people with 9 or more points had it for their first choice.

Ill use me as an example for this draw. I have 6 resident points and will only apply for one unit (161-163, 171-173) because it’s the only tag in the state I want and I’m in no hurry to draw an elk tag since I hunt out of state OTC as a backup. So with the squared points, hunters who applied for it would equal 2,929 names in the hat for the 20 tags they issue. 36 of them would be mine so off that math I would have a 24.5% chance at one of the 20 tags. GoHunt accounts for the tags that were drawn before they got to their choice for the unit and they claim I have an 87% chance to draw. I’ve used them since the beginning and have found their numbers to be pretty accurate. So although your odds are slim, they are better than 1% especially being in that point class.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Other than area 262 just outside of Las Vegas there really aren't any bad elk areas. Even in that area I've seen some pretty big bulls but there are so few tags there to bother with.
Just apply and hope for the best.

 

[backcountry_sassn]

Other than area 262 just outside of Las Vegas there really aren't any bad elk areas. Even in that area I've seen some pretty big bulls but there are so few tags there to bother with.
Just apply and hope for the best.

262 is an awesome area!!!! Ive ben hunting cow elk on the table in unit 16 for years and really want to hunt bulls on it otherwise I would had 262 to my list of hunting areas. Lots of elk if you know where to look and some bomber bulls in there. I've been shocked where I've found piles of sheds, and the size of some of those sheds, down in the low desert around the yuccas and joshua trees. Last year my cousin and I found 8 sets and 21 singles in a 4 square mile area. Its what I love about Nevada, every unit has potential for quality animals for all huntable species.