Elk Rut & Antler Growth

[Craig S.]

I am a fanatic when it comes to assessing antler growth & rut activity each year. I always try & predict what the year is going to produce each September. As you all probably already know Arizona is in a big time drought which seems to be never ending (2005 was the only bright spot). I just got off the NOAA website & printed out the drought severity index maps for the years 1998-2006. I printed a map for each year from the last week in April to the first week in May (which ever was available), then I printed a map from the last week in August to the first week in September (which ever was available). In my opinion these are the two best time periods to asses both antler growth & rut activity. (Remember this is only my opinion & it is not the gosple!) From what I can see from the maps this year is shaping up to be like 2004. In 2004 I hunted two different counties, the antler growth as a whole was a little below average in both areas. Also, the rutting activity seemed to be a bit diminished, the cows cycles seemed to be incosistent, in other words they didn't all come into heat during a one or two week period. I saw bulls pushing cows from mid-August all the way to October 20th but the activity seemed to have highs & alot of LOWS.

The next closest year when comparing the maps was 2000, which is scary because the rut activity was almost not exisitent. For example I hunted everyday of the archery elk season & I heard maybe 10 bugles total! The difference between 2000 & 2004 was we recieved a fair amount of moisture during the monsoon season. As far as antler growth I saw one bull on this hunt between scouting & hunting that would go over 360!

This National Climate Prediction Center is basically stating the Monsoon season will be some were about average this year. With 7 bonus points I am still in limbo but I sure am praying for a good early monsoon season. I hate this life first no UTAH tag, now a debate with myself on wether or not to put in & then the whole process of waiting for the AZ results!

Craig S.
http://www.callemin.com


Stan,

The maps from 1998 were above average on the May map & were about average for the August-September map. I know we had a pretty good rut that year, atleast where we were at. I thought you might like to know about it, I know you should have about 6 points or so!

 

[The Hedgehog]

So are you just going for a bonus point this year?

 

[AZMIKE111]

Craig you have a tough decision on whether to go for a bonus point or not. It sucks when you've accumulated all the points for a good year of precip and a decent shot for a good hunt and it may not happen this year. I only have one decision with two points and that's put in, but if I had 5+ points I would be flippin a coin. Good Luck!

 

[Craig S.]

I don't know...

I know that some areas will still produce big elk (maybe not as big as they could be) but I don't like the idea of hunting a year when I hear, maybe a dozen bugles. The timing of the archery hunts this year is a week later but I don't really think that means much on a drought year. I mean I believe I probably will hear a few more bugles because of the timing of the hunt but most of them will be coming from small satelite bulls that have finally started to build up some testosterone.

I probably ought to put in regardless, as I more than likely won't draw anyway. My good friend had 7 points last year & he thought he was a shoe in for a hunt with draw odds that were about 18%. Boy was he wrong, he now has 8 points!

Mike,
I wish I was in your shoes or it was a good year!