Download the Elk regs and the odds reports to your AZ folder, and watch how the hunts you're interested in creep, year over year.
This is the '25 report for your 5A late rifle. 5 of 15 drew at the 7 point level, 8+ were 100%. Last column to the right is combined Bonus Pass and 1-2 Pass (random side). You're far enough behind you might need to consider other hunts. I'm back at 3 points and there are options but not a whole lot.
