Search results

  1. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Another point to note is that none of these services are offering predictive odds. They are simply trying to accurately calculate the odds from last year. And again the problem with the TopRut odds is that they did not apply the 10% cap to the NR numbers.
  2. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Correct. And the best estimate takes into account the odds of how my ping pong balls are left during each draw from the pool.
  3. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Sorry. I left out those are the odds with max 23 points. What I left out was how many tickets are removed because say the first guy drawn had the max 529 tickets and now there are 529 less out of the 500k+ remaining tickets. Don't sell the statistics short though. It is entirely possible to...
  4. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Not arguing this part any farther but the above statements are false. You are over simplifying the complexity of the system and downplaying the task entities like GoHunt and TopRut have to deal with to make it simple enough to present to the public. In the example I had. If the first number...
  5. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Both of these are off way worse than the draw odds on Toprut. For a lot of draws once a NR draws the number of applicants left for the remaining (what could be 90% of the remaining tags) can be cut more than if half. Take 622-02 for example. Total tickets in the hat to start the draw was...
  6. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    How are you accounting for the point at which all the NR get thrown out of a specific draw and suddenly your odds as a resident are higher for the remaining draws than they were for the previous draws?
  7. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    I went to take a look and HF and Toprut are showing the 10% NR quota as the same number as the total quota. Could be one reason for some inflated NR odds if they are higher than they should be.
  8. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Here's the kicker. Until the NR quota is met everyone has the same odds R or NR. It's all one big pot until the last NR tag that puts if over the limit is drawn. At that point all the NR are kicked out and the draw continues.
  9. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    What's your basis for these numbers being way off or unbelievable? Just asking because with the way the system works its nearly impossible to shoot from the hip looking at the data to figure out a legitimate draw odds number.
  10. BuckRut

    Montana Mountain King - Vaughn, MT man pleads guilty to felony wildlife crimes

    I am also guessing that if names of the connection bringing in the Marco Polo specimens came to light that I would not be surprised at who it was.
  11. BuckRut

    Montana Mountain King - Vaughn, MT man pleads guilty to felony wildlife crimes

    No. People selling off the nuts of harvested rams for this purpose.
  12. BuckRut

    Montana Mountain King - Vaughn, MT man pleads guilty to felony wildlife crimes

    I had heard rumor of something like this happening with sheep harvested in the Breaks.
  13. BuckRut

    300 rum factory 10 twist heavies?

    This is my current bullet of choice as well. I am often surprised how much we hear this echoed of a gun that is shooting well so we want to change it up. If it shoots then shoot it until the barrel's dead.
  14. BuckRut

    300 rum factory 10 twist heavies?

    Bergers calculator puts you close to comfortably stable. I had troubles with 205VLDs in a Rem 700 XCR from way back in the day. Not certain of the twist rate but I'll bet it was 10. Shell will not even come close to fitting in a stock mag and bottom metal. I could put one in the mag because...
  15. BuckRut

    Wordle

    When you get words like this. Don't waste guesses only checking one letter. Use a word you know isn't correct but has 3 or 4 of the letters that could possibly be that first letter. That way you are checking more letters off the list with each guess.
  16. BuckRut

    DIY welding/crafting a Tiny Camper?

    That's a surprisingly high tow rating for them. I only mentioned that because I occasionally pull a sxs with a 4 door wrangler and it's about all the more I would comfortably pull with it at maybe 3,500 lbs.
  17. BuckRut

    DIY welding/crafting a Tiny Camper?

    I would suggest you check the actual listed towing capacity on the Jeep because their "heavy tow kit" still doesn't make them capable of towing much weight effectively and safely.
  18. BuckRut

    Fixing Western Hunting

    I would agree. Where does the drive come from for the want to have a bigger stake in western hunting for those who can locally hunt all the WT they would like? We're over here killing not a fraction as many animals in our lifetime in our home states but the NR always want more.
  19. BuckRut

    Fixing Western Hunting

    I think we really need to move away from the ideas that what will save hunting is to make it "fair" and start focusing on how to maintain the most robust animal populations we can. Life is inherently unfair. Everything that lives does so at the expense of something else. There are no ties or...
Back
Top