WWYD? Point Creep Strategy?

TexAg09

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Nov 18, 2015
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I'm looking to cash in some elk points next season, but I'm already planning now for scouting and logistics purposes. There is a limited quota unit I'm really interested in that currently has a 100% draw odds with 6 points, and around 50% at less than 6. I'll have 6 points next year. If I put that as my first choice and a general tag as my second choice I have 0% chance for a second choice general tag if I don't get my first choice. I'm sure some of you can figure out this unit, but I hate guys that blast spots on message boards haha.

So my question is would you gamble and hope the unit stays at 6 points or move on and spend your time scouting other units? Thanks!
 
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rmyoung1

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I’d take a look back the last few years and try to gain an idea of the trend. If the point creep rate is 0.25 points/year, for example, I’d feel comfortable applying. (Of course, massive changes in allocation, tag price increases, or a million other things can monkey with point creep trajectory from year to year.)
 

DougStickney

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With the apps out there with filtering I would stop talking right now. Add on top of that the fear nonresidents are getting the boot from Wyoming it sets up for a good chance at point creep. Good luck
 

BuzzH

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Laramie, WY
I'm looking to cash in some elk points next season, but I'm already planning now for scouting and logistics purposes. There is a limited quota unit I'm really interested in that currently has a 100% draw odds with 6 points, and around 50% at less than 6. I'll have 6 points next year. If I put that as my first choice and a general tag as my second choice I have 0% chance for a second choice general tag if I don't get my first choice. I'm sure some of you can figure out this unit, but I hate guys that blast spots on message boards haha.

So my question is would you gamble and hope the unit stays at 6 points or move on and spend your time scouting other units? Thanks!
I would wonder if the 6 point unit is any better than a general tag.
 

QuazyQuinton

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Jun 8, 2020
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Western Oregon
The chatter about Wyoming going to 90/10 for elk is certainly not helping your chances.

Given the way that "social media has ruined hunting," your best bet might be to take a scouting trip there this fall and get some photos with plenty of recognizable landmarks. Then open two or three fake accounts on each of the major hunting forums and post up some reports of your "hunts" from this fall. "Hunted eight days and only saw four cows...." "An army of orange and the elk were totally silent...." "Wolves howling in every drainage...." "Stupid G&F has ruined the elk hunting in that unit...."

QQ
 

ccc23454

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Sep 22, 2010
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Wyoming
I would be leary of a LE unit that only takes 6 points (unless going guided on one of those outfitter welfare tags that already exist). Unless your looking for a very specfic hunt very few NRs should make it past points for a general and none as a first elk hunt.
 

TexAg09

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Nov 18, 2015
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Central Texas
Less than 6 is not the same as 5.
Yes sir, that's why I didn't say 5. I understand the difference, but I feel like it's a gray area if point creep continues on the same trajectory. Do you think I'm more worried about it than I should be? I understand that this is all dependent that application trends stay consistent as well. (Not trying to come across rude.)
 
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JAG

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Alabama
You can analyze a 4-6 year trend quickly and closely with GoHunt. I then go back to the WGF site for a closer look to see individual applicants' point totals.

Some units in WY went up 1.5-2 points while most crept upward by 1 point. Some decreased from 2020 to 2021. This year, my 3-hunter party applied in the Special Draw. We were the lowest point holders to win without a random tag. Our unit went up 1.5 points.

After building 6 points, my two buddies started applying with 5 points every year for a unit that crept just one point each year. This year, the unit took 11 points and they could have won it. However, they bowed out since a significant amount of land was bought up and turned private.
 

2rocky

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Jul 23, 2010
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From my experience with creep, look back at previous years and declining points. When I've been in your position I've been behind the curve for my target unit. Us GH to determine how many other applicants with the same # of points you are competing with as well as how many Higher point folks drew. If there are more people with the (in your case) 6 pts than tags available then you will be random at best.


Here is a tag I've been chasing in a different state and species. Each year the last 3 years i had a 100% chance based on previous years...Each time Higher point burners came in and cherry picked my unit. My advice is pick a unit you are 1 point over minimum if you want a higher percentage opportunity.

1664834267813.png
 
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Mallardsx2

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^^^1 point over doesn't guarantee anything.....trust me.

Wyoming needs to do away with point averaging.
 
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JAG

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Mar 2, 2020
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Alabama
Some WY units jump up two (2) or even four (4) points from year to year.

Yet, applying one point above average required points is a good strategy for most units. That's standard intel from the WGF.
 

PrairieHunter

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Laramie, WY
I'd go general. Gives you lots of flexibility for things like fires, drought, etc..

It's a shame you can't draw it with 3 as then you could bring a friend and get 2 general tags out of the deal.
 

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