Idk what unit your talking about. But alot of the eastern units guys were throwing a fit this year it seemed like. I think alot of its due to way more cover, feed and water. Cuz my January bowhunt with the numbers I saw and as many good bucks I saw proved them all wrong. And I only hunted a total of like 5 days.. jus throwing that in the mix of thoughtsGotta narrow down my deer and elk a little further before I send in my money. After the reports I heard from the local deer unit last season, I'm considering a move.
For a 10% draw odds hunt, applicants will AVERAGE one hunt per ten years, BUT there is a 35% chance of applying ten consecutive years and NOT drawing even one time. Put another way, 35% of applicants who apply for a 10% odds hunt, ten years in a row, will not have drawn.X2 on the above. I've struck out in NM 2 years in a row
RESIDENTS usually go years between draws. Too many tags to big landowners who turn around and sell them to outfitters. Now, technically, those landowner tags go to "residents", but the bulk of those tags go NR via the outfitter.For a 10% draw odds hunt, applicants will AVERAGE one hunt per ten years, BUT there is a 35% chance of applying ten consecutive years and NOT drawing even one time. Put another way, 35% of applicants who apply for a 10% odds hunt, ten years in a row, will not have drawn.
Yes there are easier to draw hunts than 10% in NM, but they’re getting fewer and fewer, and those hunts aren’t any better than they were when they had leftover tags every year.
I don’t know what you’re applying for, but NM has become a state where you should expect not to draw anything for quite a few years in a row. The highest draw odds rifle elk tag was 27% draw odds in 2020(going into 2021 which is the newest data goHunt has calculated). The odds of applying for that three times and not drawing any time are 39%. That is based on not knowing if you’re going to draw on any of those years. Since we already know that didn’t draw in years one or two, your odds of not drawing that this year are 73%. You could always try the Dec archery tag that used to be OTC.