Nevada Odds Question for Math People

[Desk Pop]

Nevada is bonus squared and you get five choices before they move to next person. Seems simple...but here's my question which relates to the five choices.

For the sake of simplicity, let's say I have 1% odds on each the five desert ram units I picked with the amount of points I have...for someone with about 14-15 points this would be a possible scenario depending on units chosen.

Unit 1 - 1% odds with respects to points
Unit 2 - 1% odds
Unit 3- 1% odds
Unit 4- 1% odds
Unit 5- 1% odds

Would that mean I have a 5% chance of getting one tag because I get 5 choices?

Thoughts? Am I missing something?

 

[2rocky]

No (and I MAY BE WRONG) because your odds relate to where you fall in the order of picking your choices.

Hunters can apply for five different hunt choices per animal type. California bighorn sheep and desert bighorn sheep are considered different animals. If the computer draws an application, the applicants gets the highest-choice tag still available. Thus, a tag could go to hunter who listed it as a fifth choice, even though another hunters might have listed the same tag as a first choice. Select each choice wisely. It is also important to understand that you get five hunt choices and your first two choices should be filled with the hunts that you desire most regardless of your point level or the popularity of the hunt choice.

With five choices, there is always a slim chance for applicants with little or no points to draw a tag. After your first two “dream” choices are filled in, then you must determine if your intentions are to hold out for only the best of hunts or if you would be happy with a less popular selection. Remember, your bonus points are squared in Nevada.

your scenario of 15 points means you have 225 chances (15x15) to be drawn early enough to go down your list of choices. The Max point folks have 576 chances each. So there is the odds of being drawn PLUUUUUS the odds that someone in front of you may have picked the unity you chose.

That's why all the odds are Sub 1% There are a lot of tickets in there. But your odds are never 0 either.

 

[Desk Pop]

No (and I MAY BE WRONG) because your odds relate to where you fall in the order of picking your choices.



your scenario of 15 points means you have 225 chances (15x15) to be drawn early enough to go down your list of choices. The Max point folks have 576 chances each. So there is the odds of being drawn PLUUUUUS the odds that someone in front of you may have picked the unity you chose.

That's why all the odds are Sub 1% There are a lot of tickets in there. But your odds are never 0 either.

Thank you for reply. But the odds were hypothetical and in relation to points...meaning the math from everyone with 0 points to 30 points has been added in and I also added in the hypothetical person with 15. So in short, the "true" odds of the hunter with 15 points is 1%, after all calculations have come through.

 

[LopeHunter]

If you find 5% odds to draw a desert ram tag for a single year of applying to any state in the U.S. then do me a solid and let your new best bud know. 5% is 1 in 20 odds. Apply for 20 years and is very likely you draw a tag. Something I have done (apply) in several states for bighorn and desert with no ram tags to show. I am lucky as have drawn a moose and 3 mountain goat tags over the years yet have never drawn the ram tag. I pity the fool that gets my bighorn tag each year!

 

[Desk Pop]

It is best for the sake or the question to ignore points and just go with the 1% for each of the 5 hunter choices.

 

[npaden]

There is math involved and it is less than 5% but more than 1%.

 

[Desk Pop]

If you find 5% odds to draw a desert ram tag for a single year of applying to any state in the U.S. then do me a solid and let your new best bud know. 5% is 1 in 20 odds. Apply for 20 years and is very likely you draw a tag. Something I have done (apply) in several states for bighorn and desert with no ram tags to show. I am lucky as have drawn a moose and 3 mountain goat tags over the years yet have never drawn the ram tag. I pity the fool that gets my bighorn tag each year!

Below are odds for desert sheep for five selected units. All are about 1% for someone with 15 points in last year's draw...math is done on that....

Back to the question, are my chances 1% of getting a tag, or 5% (of getting a single tag) because they look at my 5 choices first?

 

[npaden]

The way I would look at the odds for those choices would be that it is essentially the highest odds. So your odds of drawing a tag is 1.3%.

 

[2rocky]

It is best for the sake or the question to ignore points and just go with the 1% for each of the 5 hunter choices.

I think I'm reading your statement right.. Odds are not additive across choices. Each odds is a separate occurrence as a result of choice order and individual unit applications per tag available.

 

[Desk Pop]

If you find 5% odds to draw a desert ram tag for a single year of applying to any state in the U.S. then do me a solid and let your new best bud know. 5% is 1 in 20 odds. Apply for 20 years and is very likely you draw a tag. Something I have done (apply) in several states for bighorn and desert with no ram tags to show. I am lucky as have drawn a moose and 3 mountain goat tags over the years yet have never drawn the ram tag. I pity the fool that gets my bighorn tag each year!

In this scenario the hunter has 15 years applying....not first year. I chos

The way I would look at the odds for those choices would be that it is essentially the highest odds. So your odds of drawing a tag is 1.3%.

And it may be, that's why I am asking. I am curious as to how your 5 choices factors in.

 

[2rocky]

In this scenario the hunter has 15 years applying....not first year. I chos

And it may be, that's why I am asking. I am curious as to how your 5 choices factors in.

I think your order from least to most likely is the appropriate choice. Assuming the lower odds choice is more desirable.

 

[Desk Pop]

I think I'm reading your statement right.. Odds are not additive across choices. Each odds is a separate occurrence as a result of choice order and individual unit applications per tag available.

The 1% per unit quote would come from a breakdown of the number of points from all people who put it in as a top 5 choice and where a guy with 15 points would fall in...(1%).

But then there are 4 other choice picked and he has 1% at each of those.

I think it is either 5% odds, or it is between 1 and 5%, but not just 1%. Idk though

 

[npaden]

You don't get to compound the draw odds because there are not 5 separate draws, you only get pulled from the hat one time. Then they look at your choices in order and if any of them are available you are awarded the tag. So your maximum odds are 1.3% which is equal to the highest odds of any unit you applied for.

 

[Desk Pop]

I knew I was getting close to 1% odds with my points in NV...so when I remembered the 5 choice thing I got a half chub wondering if in fact I have a 5% chance of any tag.

 

[MTHeifer]

Nevada's drawing works by assigning a random number to each point for all hunters. The lowest random numbers get their highest choice with remaining tags. The only way your odds would be higher than 1.3% is if other people in the pool have drawn a tag in a different district so the actual number of applicants might be a few people below 425. So your odds are just barely above 1.3%.

It's not 5 separate draws.

 

[Desk Pop]

You don't get to compound the draw odds because there are not 5 separate draws, you only get pulled from the hat one time. Then they look at your choices in order and if any of them are available you are awarded the tag. So your maximum odds are 1.3% which is equal to the highest odds of any unit you applied for.

That is how I had originally read the odds, but just wondered how 5 choices factored in. Makes sense.

A good rule with sheep odds are that they are never better than the smallest amount they can be...

 

[2rocky]

I knew I was getting close to 1% odds with my points in NV...so when I remembered the 5 choice thing I got a half chub wondering if in fact I have a 5% chance of any tag.

 

[jabber]

You don't get to compound the draw odds because there are not 5 separate draws, you only get pulled from the hat one time. Then they look at your choices in order and if any of them are available you are awarded the tag. So your maximum odds are 1.3% which is equal to the highest odds of any unit you applied for.

So basically sometime in the next 77 years +/- you may draw a tag.

 

[npaden]

So if you have 1.3% odds in about 4 or 5 states then you might get it to sometime in the next 20 to 25 years!

 

[Desk Pop]

Nevada's drawing works by assigning a random number to each point for all hunters. The lowest random numbers get their highest choice with remaining tags. The only way your odds would be higher than 1.3% is if other people in the pool have drawn a tag in a different district so the actual number of applicants might be a few people below 425. So your odds are just barely above 1.3%.

It's not 5 separate draws.

To play devil's advocate here, and because I am still sold that the odds are somewhere between 1 and 5%, not just 1% (or maybe I am just optimistic)....but take another situation.

Say I put in for only one of the five possible choices, instead of all five I am allowed. Your theory would say that I have no better chance of drawing by having the four other choices filled out because my odds are only whatever the best odds of the five hunts (1 or 1.3% based on above examples)....but I obviously would. If my number came up and they went though my one and only choice and it was filled, I am out, next guy is up. If I have five choices and they pull my number early and my first, second and third choice has been taken by lower numbers, but my fourth choice has not, then I drew that. Wouldn't that suggest it is better than 1.3%?

I took two stats classes in undergrad and graduate school but never came across anything like this, so I have fallen on logic and examples which may just be dumb.

I would say that based on my example, it is higher than 1 (or 1.3) from the posted example, otherwise how could one explain the above scenario?