Is it luck? W. Oregon rifle draws/hair tags

a.huntress.m

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So, I put in for cow and doe tags for the first time this year, in my 30+ years of hunting. I didn't draw either. A friend of mine, who's put in for hers every year for 20 years has drawn both cow and doe every year for the last 5 years. Her daughter, who's in her second year of hunting has also drawn cow and doe both years she's been of legal hunting age. Her husband has put in for his hair tags yearly for 9 years as of this year and never drawn them once. While I understand that youth have much better chances of drawing, how does a person draw both hair tags consistently for years while others have been putting in for years not draw? Am I wasting my time and money putting in for these tags, when I could simply buy points after tagging is over for the year? Am I missing something about how drawing tags works? Can someone dumb it all down for me, like, at the absolute most basic level? 🤦🏼‍♀️
 

Dsnow9

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What state (resident or non-resident) and weapon type are you asking about? That will make a large difference on the answer.
 

a.huntress.m

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What state (resident or non-resident) and weapon type are you asking about? That will make a large difference on the answer.
Apologies, I should have thought to mention. Western Oregon resident general rifle, cow elk and doe tags specifically.
Edit: not including damage control tags, which are antlerless elk only, and on private lands.
 

a.huntress.m

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Also just realized I posted this in the wrong place. Ugh, I'm sorry! Still learning my way around the place! 🤦🏼‍♀️
 

a.huntress.m

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It all depends on the unit you apply for. The new odds reports show every app and tag drawn, sorted by unit and points.
Specifically, this is the Alsea unit (18).. I know there are a very limited amount of tags that go out, also. I won't even get started on the politics of hair tags, just wondering how I can get mine without waiting for 9+ years. Haha
 

David658

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I think you are a victim of statistics. Even flipping a coin, with a 50% chance of your called result, results can run in strings. My buddy and I used to draw the Metolius Muzzleloader tag with great regularity, even with the steep decrease in the number of tags year over year (that was some time ago, I haven't lived in OR for some years). We were certainly outliers, but to have someone who just gets lucky for a string of years isn't that uncommon given the numbers, but it is no less frustrating.
 

a.huntress.m

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I think you are a victim of statistics. Even flipping a coin, with a 50% chance of your called result, results can run in strings. My buddy and I used to draw the Metolius Muzzleloader tag with great regularity, even with the steep decrease in the number of tags year over year (that was some time ago, I haven't lived in OR for some years). We were certainly outliers, but to have someone who just gets lucky for a string of years isn't that uncommon given the numbers, but it is no less frustrating.
I appreciate this input. What kills me is that it seems like nobody talks about drawing hair tags here, so we don't know where those tags are going, thus making it feel like they're just not being given out. I mean, people can't be ashamed of hair tags, right? Meat is meat, isn't it?...
Ive only put in for them once so far, so I definitely don't feel victimized in any way, but I know a few who do after years of not drawing (such as my friend's husband). Aside from bear, all my tags next year will be drawings, so hopefully I pull something. Haha

Speaking of, how was metolius hunting? My parents hunted Paulina (china hat, mostly) when I was a kid and were successful every time, and I know the entire region is riddled with game.. was it a fairly easy hunt? Like, would I be able to take my 12 year old daughter out with me, safely? (Predators aside, of course)
 

WapitiBob

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While not impossible, it's highly unlikely your friend is drawing 600 series and 200 series Alsea tags every year in the random side.
75 tags and over 1200 apps for the Alsea 600 series is 19 tags to the random side.
 

Salmonchaser

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It took me 18 years to draw Walla Walla any bull, thats about average. I know a guy who drew it three times during the same time frame. The year I drew my Bighorn tag I also drew deer, spring bear, spike elk and antelope. can’t beat lucky. No reason not to keep putting in for your hair tags unless it keeps you from taking a hunt someplace else.
 

a.huntress.m

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While not impossible, it's highly unlikely your friend is drawing 600 series and 200 series Alsea tags every year in the random side.
75 tags and over 1200 apps for the Alsea 600 series is 19 tags to the random side.
See, that's what I thought, but she posts her tags and pictures of her success (and her daughters success) in insta every season. Again, it's only been the last 5 years (that I'm aware of). It just doesn't feel right to me, but 🤷🏼‍♀️
 

a.huntress.m

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It took me 18 years to draw Walla Walla any bull, thats about average. I know a guy who drew it three times during the same time frame. The year I drew my Bighorn tag I also drew deer, spring bear, spike elk and antelope. can’t beat lucky. No reason not to keep putting in for your hair tags unless it keeps you from taking a hunt someplace else.
That's a long wait. I hope I can be that patient, if it comes to it! I'm probably one of the most unlucky people in the state, so wouldn't surprise me if I'm waiting a few years. But you're absolutely right, no reason to not put in. That's the best way to miss out on an opportunity!
 

Joe Hulburt

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See, that's what I thought, but she posts her tags and pictures of her success (and her daughters success) in insta every season. Again, it's only been the last 5 years (that I'm aware of). It just doesn't feel right to me, but 🤷🏼‍♀️
Could it be that she is getting LOP tags? LOP stands for Land Owner Preference. If you own a certain amount of acres you are guaranteed tags each year. Otherwise probably BS.

You should definitely apply for the tags as opposed to buying points. The cost is the same and if you just buy points you have no chance until you have enough points to be in the point pool.
 

QuazyQuinton

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Also important to know specifically which tags people are applying for. Some tags have high demand, and others they can barely give away. Most elk hair tags, for example, are relatively easy to draw since most are heavily focused on private land.

QQ
 

Dsnow9

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So, I put in for cow and doe tags for the first time this year, in my 30+ years of hunting. I didn't draw either. A friend of mine, who's put in for hers every year for 20 years has drawn both cow and doe every year for the last 5 years. Her daughter, who's in her second year of hunting has also drawn cow and doe both years she's been of legal hunting age. Her husband has put in for his hair tags yearly for 9 years as of this year and never drawn them once. While I understand that youth have much better chances of drawing, how does a person draw both hair tags consistently for years while others have been putting in for years not draw? Am I wasting my time and money putting in for these tags, when I could simply buy points after tagging is over for the year? Am I missing something about how drawing tags works? Can someone dumb it all down for me, like, at the absolute most basic level? 🤦🏼‍♀️
I know this isn’t answering your question but it’s worth digging into, if your friend is drawing tags every year and you didn’t, make sure to verify your application. I know a lot of people that have messed up a letter of number on their application and ended up applying for a tag with harder or easier odds and some haven’t realized they were awarded a different tag than what they thought they applied for. Also know people that messed up the billing information and were not awarded the tag because their payment did not go through
 

a.huntress.m

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I know this isn’t answering your question but it’s worth digging into, if your friend is drawing tags every year and you didn’t, make sure to verify your application. I know a lot of people that have messed up a letter of number on their application and ended up applying for a tag with harder or easier odds and some haven’t realized they were awarded a different tag than what they thought they applied for. Also know people that messed up the billing information and were not awarded the tag because their payment did not go through
That's a very good point! I actually did mine through the ODFW app this year, and have all that documentation, so I was able to verify my application repeatedly. Which I did, as I kept thinking I'd made some kind of error, being new to the app (and website as well). Having that I fo at the tip of my fingers any time I want to see it without rifling through m wallet for a receipt is an amazing thing. Haha
 

a.huntress.m

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Could it be that she is getting LOP tags? LOP stands for Land Owner Preference. If you own a certain amount of acres you are guaranteed tags each year. Otherwise probably BS.

You should definitely apply for the tags as opposed to buying points. The cost is the same and if you just buy points you have no chance until you have enough points to be in the point pool.
If they are LOPs, she's hunting illegally. She's never hunted private lands a day in her life. I get how she's always successful hunting though; her husband is a logger and keeps track of the heards all year, but all on public lands.

I appreciate your insights!

I mean, yeah, I'm a little jealous that I didn't draw, but it was my first time and I'm not gonna hold it against her that she gets the luck of the draw. I'll definitely keep putting in and wait my turn!
 

QuazyQuinton

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Spend a little time on this website. It will help you understand what your odds of drawing a tag are at the various point levels. You can look at antlerless deer and the other species, as well.

Also, you've mentioned hair tags, but there are no controlled hunts with hair tags in the Alsea unit, so whoever is getting hair tags is going somewhere else. Each time these details change, the drawing odds or points required to draw will also change.

QQ
 

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