Im bowing out

[wllm]

The scale of your chart is deceiving the drop. Denver market still fell considerably in GFC. The recent rise just makes the whole thing look minor.

Peak in Denver pre crisis was 06' it dropped ~10% to a low in 09'
From 2015 to 2022 it's doubled.
1YTD it's up 30%

So I guess we are arguing about what "considerably" means, I guess my point is "will Denver be affordable again?" Probably not... at least not for a while.

I can't imagine that if -10% is the 08' crash that we would dive 40 or 50% in the next couple of years? What do you think?

 

[SAJ-99]

Peak in Denver pre crisis was 06' it dropped ~10% to a low in 09'
From 2015 to 2022 it's doubled.
1YTD it's up 30%

So I guess we are arguing about what "considerably" means, I guess my point is "will Denver be affordable again?" Probably not... at least not for a while.

I can't imagine that if -10% is the 08' crash that we would dive 40 or 50% in the next couple of years? What do you think?

I would say Denver held up fairly well during the GFC, (but it might not have been as speculative-rich as some markets). I think a 40% or even 30% drop is almost impossible. RE charts need longer time frames for context. Even if they look over-bought, figuring out where the fair-value trend line is tough.

 

[VikingsGuy]

The math always makes it look great and I’m a nerd, wouldn’t argue with anyone going this route assuming the rest of your finances are in order. Paying off the house early isn’t solely a goal to achieve the highest return possible for me. It’s something my wife and I agreed to shoot for as more of a feeling for security in a world that seems more bat s*** crazy every day.

Absolutely, everyone needs to meet their own needs. It's just important folks understand the broader picture so that, "you do you" is fully informed and not driven by some youtuber schtick.

 

[VikingsGuy]

One more thought on the "pay off the mortgage first" need for security, why not just make those extra monthly payments or extra principal paydowns into a broad-based Vanguard index fund. If you never have trouble paying your mortgage then you will have maximized your savings. If you get laid off, just use some of the Vanguard funds to pay those mortgage payments as they come up during the few lean years. You get the best of both worlds. I still owe 50% of the value on my house at 2.75% interest - I could pay it off tomorrow if I needed to, but why when over a reasonable time horizon I am getting back 7-15% on the funds. I increase my savings and have no worries about losing the house. Win-win. Home equity is not a great place to store assets over the long haul.

 

[Sytes]

I still owe 50% of the value on my house at 2.75% interest - I could pay it off tomorrow if I needed to, but why when over a reasonable time horizon I am getting back 7-15% on the funds.

Interesting... Any specific ETF you favor?
I bought a house that the Gov pays me Living Quarters Allowance. I have roughly $2k mortgage, I'm paid 4k, roughly monthly. We had planned to cap our TSP or place the rest into principle, though your vanguard is worth considering.

 

[TN2shot07]

One more thought on the "pay off the mortgage first" need for security, why not just make those extra monthly payments or extra principal paydowns into a broad-based Vanguard index fund. If you never have trouble paying your mortgage then you will have maximized your savings. If you get laid off, just use some of the Vanguard funds to pay those mortgage payments as they come up during the few lean years. You get the best of both worlds. I still owe 50% of the value on my house at 2.75% interest - I could pay it off tomorrow if I needed to, but why when over a reasonable time horizon I am getting back 7-15% on the funds. I increase my savings and have no worries about losing the house. Win-win. Home equity is not a great place to store assets over the long haul.

This was part of my original plan, too. We decided it would be pretty easy for an extra $20-40k sitting around could turn into a new shop, kitchen remodel, or a bass boat... If I just pay down the principal I know exactly where that money is going. A lot of good intentions don’t pan out for lack of discipline

 

[VikingsGuy]

Interesting... Any specific ETF you favor?
I bought a house that the Gov pays me Living Quarters Allowance. I have roughly $2k mortgage, I'm paid 4k, roughly monthly. We had planned to cap our TSP or place the rest into principle, though your vanguard is worth considering.

I like S&P500 index finds. Some like “all market” funds. Some will mix in a bond fund. Some like target retirement funds, but I am so-so on those.

 

[VikingsGuy]

This was part of my original plan, too. We decided it would be pretty easy for an extra $20-40k sitting around could turn into a new shop, kitchen remodel, or a bass boat... If I just pay down the principal I know exactly where that money is going. A lot of good intentions don’t pan out for lack of discipline

And folks who lack discipline also use helocs to do the same in a very much worse way. There is no way to hide your money from yourself.

 

[TN2shot07]

And folks who lack discipline also use helocs to do the same in a very much worse way. There is no way to hide your money from yourself.

Spot on, as usual! I have enough discipline that it probably wouldn’t be an issue either way. I just like to add a little inconvenience to the plan to keep me honest

 

[TN_Rifle_Junkie]

Out of curiosity, what are property taxes like in your neighborhood and Beacon Hill? It's still kind of crazy to me that my mortgage payment (PITI) here in TN is roughly equal to my mortgage payment in FL despite my mortgage balance here being 60%+ higher and having a higher interest rate. It's directly due to the high insurance and taxes in FL.

Stop giving away out secrets. This is what makes Appalachia TN so nice. We are are just stupid redneck southern boys who do know diddly squat. We need to keep it that way. Look at Bozeman and Boise. They got slammed by the others once they found the "honey holes".

There are no honey holes in TN. Just saying.

Too many people. No inexpensive private land. No public land to speak of. Only 14 elk tags in a hidden hole in north central TN. Too many tourists. Traffic is horrible. We have cottonmouths, water moccasins, blue racers, too many (protected) bears, ticks, fleas, fire ants, and timber rattlesnakes. Not to mention black flies, flying teeth (sand gnats), and mosquitos galore. It is a he11 hole to live in and it is FULL.

 

[TN2shot07]

Stop giving away out secrets. This is what makes Appalachia TN so nice. We are are just stupid redneck southern boys who do know diddly squat. We need to keep it that way. Look at Bozeman and Boise. They got slammed by the others once they found the "honey holes".

There are no honey holes in TN. Just saying.

Too many people. No inexpensive private land. No public land to speak of. Only 14 elk tags in a hidden hole in north central TN. Too many tourists. Traffic is horrible. We have cottonmouths, water moccasins, blue racers, too many (protected) bears, ticks, fleas, fire ants, and timber rattlesnakes. Not to mention black flies, flying teeth (sand gnats), and mosquitos galore. It is a he11 hole to live in and it is FULL.

Don’t forget all the damn copperheads! That’s makes for a memorable trip to the chicken house.
I would take one of those elk tags tho…

 

[nick87]

Well got one under contract today, right or wrong its was the right place. If I waited prices would hold but since I bought it I'm sure they will tumble soon. No crystal ball and life goes on.

 

[rogerthat]

Well got one under contract today, right or wrong its was the right place. If I waited prices would hold but since I bought it I'm sure they will tumble soon. No crystal ball and life goes on.

Congrats! You certainly showed patience. I bet you will do good and house prices/values don't matter unless you need to refinance or sell. If rates go down you will be fine I bet from an appraisal standpoint if you decide to refi.

 

[nick87]

Congrats! You certainly showed patience. I bet you will do good and house prices/values don't matter unless you need to refinance or sell. If rates go down you will be fine I bet from an appraisal standpoint if you decide to refi.

Thanks

 

[wllm]

Well got one under contract today, right or wrong its was the right place. If I waited prices would hold but since I bought it I'm sure they will tumble soon. No crystal ball and life goes on.

Congrats!!

 

[Bigjay73]

The tide is slowly turning. Lots of houses with price reductions popping up, more open houses to attend, reports of higher new housing surpluses in some areas. Hopefully I can pick something up before the end of summer, or before rates become ridiculous

 

[neffa3]

Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level in 22 years amid rising rates and slowing home sales

Mortgage demand continues to fall as interest rates rise further and affordability in the housing market weakens.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Mountain Man]

Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level in 22 years amid rising rates and slowing home sales

Mortgage demand continues to fall as interest rates rise further and affordability in the housing market weakens.

www.cnbc.com

That news is not helping us until PRICES FALL. Theoretically your article is an indicator for the potential that prices fall, but until they do these mortgage rate related articles are not helping our financial plight. I am hopeful that scenario might be on the horizon, but I am not going to hold my breath until I see the data.

 

[ElkFever2]

And folks who lack discipline also use helocs to do the same in a very much worse way. There is no way to hide your money from yourself.

True, but anyone can choose to become more financially disciplined. Retirement contributions AND early mortgage payoff are both expressions of discipline. Signing a promissory note is about as challenging as eating a bag of Cheetos.

 

[nick87]

The US housing market is seeing its worst contraction since 2006 as mortgage applications crumble, Freddie Mac economist says

Higher interest rates are having a knock-on effect on American homeownership as rising mortgage rates and house prices reduce buyer affordability.

www.google.com