Critique my NM elk application!

[beginnerhunter]

I'm new to the whole draw a tag thing. So now that NM is done, I thought it would be fun for y'all to look at my app choices and tell me what you think. These are ALL rifle tags since I can't call and am still figuring out muzzleloaders. First time hunting elk, not picky, first legal bull I see will hunt.

1) 34 2nd rifle
2) 51 Early rifle
3) 5b 2nd rifle

I considered 6a, 49, 50, 52 not necessarily in that order. Decided 34 because it has a high success rate without the HD/Q price hike. Chose 51 over 6a because the 6a hunt was during full moon (does this matter?). Landed on 5b to maximize chances of drawing tags.

Would love to read your thoughts on this. I didn't use gohunt so maybe y'all know something I don't (probably way more). U don't have to get too specific in an open forum. If I draw I'll ask for specifics later. Thanks!

 

[beginnerhunter]

Forgot to say, nonresident.

 

[ImBillT]

I only applied for one of those, but overall still similar.

I disregard moon phase, but since I started checking I’ve killed most of my animals on a full moon. I’ve only hunted elk once.

 

[Dinkshooter]

Its the NM draw, enjoy your home state whitetail hunt this year.

 

[beginnerhunter]

I only applied for one of those, but overall still similar.

I disregard moon phase, but since I started checking I’ve killed most of my animals on a full moon. I’ve only hunted elk once.

Yeah I normally don't pay attention either since I usually go when I can. But people always say...

 

[ImBillT]

Its the NM draw, enjoy your home state whitetail hunt this year.

Nah! NM deer and elk odds aren’t that much different from limited entry in other states. If you want to hunt every 2-5 years you can. If you want to draw a glory tag you can do that every 20-40 years(with some exceptions). The advantages are that taking those 2-5 year opportunity hunts doesn’t harm your odds of drawing the glory hunt one day, skipping a year doesn’t harm you for next year, and you might draw the glory tag this year! The disadvantage though is that you can’t schedule your glory hunt, and you can’t schedule around it either. A standardized refund date amoung states would be nice.

 

[Dinkshooter]

Call me jaded, one elk tag in NM from 2004-2018

 

[brownbear932008]

Call me jaded, one elk tag in NM from 2004-2018

Sounds like my NM luck on drawing tags. But dang it was a good hunt when I did draw. Here is to getting lucky two years in a row I hope.

 

[ImBillT]

Call me jaded, one elk tag in NM from 2004-2018

Perhaps considering a little easier third choice is order...but don’t cause I don’t want you messing with my draw odds. I’m 4/6 in NM over three years, but there’s no doubt that two of those hunts made it painfully obvious why the draw odds were so good.

One of those was a second choice with something like 50% odds the year before that dropped to 20% the year I drew, and all I kept thinking was “I got drawn in the top 20% of apps and I’m hunting here!?!?” I could have been twenty different places with 20% odds that would have been much better hunts.

 

[beginnerhunter]

Perhaps considering a little easier third choice is order...but don’t cause I don’t want you messing with my draw odds. I’m 4/6 in NM over three years, but there’s no doubt that two of those hunts made it painfully obvious why the draw odds were so good.

One of those was a second choice with something like 50% odds the year before that dropped to 20% the year I drew, and all I kept thinking was “I got drawn in the top 20% of apps and I’m hunting here!?!?” I could have been twenty different places with 20% odds that would have been much better hunts.

What kind of success rate was being reported for those easier-to-draw hunts? Or do you put little stock in that sort of thing? I take them with a grain of salt especially if the elk are mostly on private during those seasons... But I did try to eliminate that variable with my choices by talking with game and fish officers (not that they're infallible).

 

[ImBillT]

What kind of success rate was being reported for those easier-to-draw hunts? Or do you put little stock in that sort of thing? I take them with a grain of salt especially if the elk are mostly on private during those seasons... But I did try to eliminate that variable with my choices by talking with game and fish officers (not that they're infallible).

I don’t remember the exact number from the prior year off the top of my head and can’t look it up at the moment, but one was fairly good and the other was exceptionally low. On the high one, there was only one non-res tag, and my guess would be that the successful resident hunters probably had access to land locked public land or lived in the unit and had exceptional knowledge of the area and animals. I was successful, and three residents were successful. I happened to see a successful resident on the road, and although it was the first animal I’d seen in the unit, I would have passed on it...at least until the end of the hunt. I really feel for any non-res who applies for and draws that tag expecting something other than a difficult situation. For the other one, the success rate(and resident demand) really reflected the situation.

Edit: Those four harvests in the first case were from ‘17-‘18. They haven’t published ‘18-‘19 harvest reports yet.

Also consider that most drawn tags are valid on public AND private with permission. I encountered a hunter that told me that hunted public and private because his friend owned a large ranch. It’s hard to know what the actually public only success rates really are.

 

[WapitiBob]

You have somewhat decent odds on the 3rd choice, "decent" being relative (about 20% when combined with the other choices).

 

[beginnerhunter]

I looked at it like a tier system, hard to easy (drawing). Tried to pick the best unit from each category (best hard to draw without being HD/Q, best mid tier, etc). Kinda regret putting that much stock in the full moon thing tho.

 

[Frazier]

Good luck on the draw. I’d say that’s good choices.

 

[Dinkshooter]

Perhaps considering a little easier third choice is order...but don’t cause I don’t want you messing with my draw odds. I’m 4/6 in NM over three years, but there’s no doubt that two of those hunts made it painfully obvious why the draw odds were so good.

One of those was a second choice with something like 50% odds the year before that dropped to 20% the year I drew, and all I kept thinking was “I got drawn in the top 20% of apps and I’m hunting here!?!?” I could have been twenty different places with 20% odds that would have been much better hunts.

I'm not a retrad, I've put 3rd choices way up in the 20s. I've even applied in the outfitter pool. Thanks for your deep insight.

 

[prhunter]

I don't now much about 51 or 5b but if you draw 34 you're in for a good hunt. Good luck!

 

[Zim]

Glad I got 20+ points in a few other states Saved me a NM donation when they "changed" the rules this year. Will watch the odds but don't expect them to drop much due to it being a magnet for ground floor applicants with no points and few options.

 

[ImBillT]

I'm not a retrad, I've put 3rd choices way up in the 20s. I've even applied in the outfitter pool. Thanks for your deep insight.

Didn’t call you a retard. My third choice hunts usually have 50-75% odds. Last year was my first year to elk hunt, and I decided that I was going to go no matter what. The year before there was one applicant for one tag on my second choice and zero for one tag on my third choice. After the draw it turned out that everyone saw that and the odds were actually pretty low. My first choice was like 1%-2%, and I drew my second which turned out to be only 20%, so apparently I drew a reasonably low number, and really wish my second choice had been for a better unit!

At 30% you had a 92% chance of drawing at least once in seven years. At 20% you were 79% likely draw at least once in seven years. Maybe this is the year.

You might not actually want one of those high odds hunts, and if you apply in a lot of states NM may be a place where you want to take a long shot. For me it’s close to home and a place I sort of plan on hunting, so I put those hunts there and a fourth choice quadrant. Between the two I should draw deer or elk most years. If I miss deer I can put in for a high odds hunt in AZ(which I haven’t done yet). If I miss elk I can do OTC. Other states are where I put my longer shots.

 

[beginnerhunter]

You might not actually want one of those high odds hunts, and if you apply in a lot of states NM may be a place where you want to take a long shot. For me it’s close to home and a place I sort of plan on hunting, so I put those hunts there and a fourth choice quadrant. Between the two I should draw deer or elk most years. If I miss deer I can put in for a high odds hunt in AZ(which I haven’t done yet). If I miss elk I can do OTC. Other states are where I put my longer shots.

I didn't research the fourth choice thing. Probably should have looked into that. Have you drawn that before?

 

[ImBillT]

I didn't research the fourth choice thing. Probably should have looked into that. Have you drawn that before?

I have not, but I have drawn a deer tag every year that I applied and an elk tag the i I applied. I haven’t drawn a pronghorn, but there are no fourth choices available for pronghorn. For fourth choice you pick a quadrant of the state and have to accept any tag they give you including doe or cow, and it could be for any date. It will only be for your first choice weapon type. They look at the first three choice of each application and after reviewing all applications, if there are any remaining tags, they go back to the top and go down the line looking for fourth choices. When they get to your app, if there is a remaining tag in your chosen quadrant for your chosen weapon type then you get that tag. What I’m unsure of is whether the tags remain in the original resident/non-res/outfitter pools or if they go into a single pool. Last year my third choice for deer and elk both had tags leftover the year before, but neither had non-res leftovers last year. If they all go into one pool, then that’s the only way a non-res can draw a cow tag. I’m not gonna lie, I’ll be kinda bummed if I get a doe tag! There are only a few of those that aren’t youth only. My guess would be that the tags remain in their original pool because there is no listed price for a non-res cow tag. Instead it says “not-issued”. If I draw a cow tag as a fourth choice, it would be pretty awesome to get it for the resident price!