Colorado 2nd Choice Question

[Andreww5001]

First post on the site so let me start off by saying please pm me all public land honey holes highlited on a .pdf file. Please keep them as close to the road as possible and make sure that both the walk in and pack out are down hill.

Now the serious question:
Been doing a ton of homework on all the different drawing systems and state units. I'm running into a little confusion on the 2nd choice in the Colorado draw. Two different sites/videos I've watched said that pretty much all of the tags are distributed to non-residents through the first choices and that a second choice was only good for like a cow tag. I could accept that but I joined gohunt.com and according to their odds predictor there are some draw only units/seasons where a non-res would still have over a 50% chance to draw a tag even on his second choice. Is there a reason I'm finding conflicting info? What is the actual right answer?

 

[marksjeep]

I just pulled these draw stats for a 1st season bull hunt. Fist column is choice number (1-4), second is resident tags drawn, third is non-res tags drawn, the rest are youth and landowner. You can see non residents drew on choices 1 through 4 for this bull tag. For 4th choice, there were 3 residents drawn and 6 non-residents drawn. Leftovers were available for this tag as well after the draw. Clear as mud?

Total Choice 1 336 369 52 13 0 0
Total Choice 2 155 74 19 0 0 0
Total Choice 3 18 5 2 0 0 0
Total Choice 4 3 6 0 0 0 0
Grand Total 512 454 73 13 0 0

 

[rmyoung1]

Not sure what sources were giving out that info, but it is absolutely possible for a nonresidents to draw a bull tag on a second choice. There's nothing preventing a nonresident from doing so, assuming the tags are available after all the first choice applicants have drawn.

 

[Andreww5001]

It took using my magic decoder ring but the stats that marksjeep posted actually did make sense. I really appreciate yall's help. Now about those honey holes... haha

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

It took using my magic decoder ring but the stats that marksjeep posted actually did make sense. I really appreciate yall's help. Now about those honey holes... haha

Drink your Ovaltine

 

[Andreww5001]

Wanted y'all to know I wasn't crazy so this is why I got so confused when reading:
(Taken from GoHunt Colorado strategy page) "Tag lottery (Drawing)
Colorado considers all applicants first choices before they consider any subsequent choice. Typically most of the hunt choices are filled during this first pass and there is usually no need for a second choice on the application. In some cases, hunt choices may go undersubscribed and be eligible to draw as a second, third or fourth choice. If an applicant draws any choice other than their first, then they earn an additional point in addition to receiving a tag."