Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

rogerthat

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I’m not worried. Just think a lot of people have pretty a screwed up perspective on what they want the future to look like.

As I have said multiple times, 2800 may be possible, but stuff will need to get much worse that what we see now.
Yeah, we aren’t going to get to 2800 at least definitely not in the short term. Pretty obvious to me right now. Oh well…fun to guess
 

Flatrock

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It should be a nothing burger. The Democrats have a majority in the House and Senate, and run the Whitehouse. Not sure what the problem is. We will see if they can work it all out by the end of the month.
Should have been a nothing burger in the 2018 shutdown as well when Republicans ran the House, Senate and White House. Not sure what the problem was then either. BOTH sides are F'ing stupid.

My point is that government shutdowns are basically meaningless when it comes to the markets. There are a million other things that are more important.
 

Flatrock

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I’m not worried. Just think a lot of people have pretty a screwed up perspective on what they want the future to look like.

As I have said multiple times, 2800 may be possible, but stuff will need to get much worse that what we see now.
100%. Apparently people back in 2008 would have preferred to see Great Depression II. Sounds like some want the same now. It took 25 years for the market to regain its high from the start of the Great Depression. No thanks.

I don't know if we hit 2800 either but I think that at some point in the next year, the dominant narrative in the market is going to shift from inflation to the yield curve inversion. If/when that happens, I think it could be a big catalyst lower. The yield curve is screaming recession in 2023.
 

rogerthat

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100%. Apparently people back in 2008 would have preferred to see Great Depression II. Sounds like some want the same now. It took 25 years for the market to regain its high from the start of the Great Depression. No thanks.

I don't know if we hit 2800 either but I think that at some point in the next year, the dominant narrative in the market is going to shift from inflation to the yield curve inversion. If/when that happens, I think it could be a big catalyst lower. The yield curve is screaming recession in 2023.
Yeah I maintain until bonds normalize and regain flight to safety on weak stock market days, we are just in the asset price reset stage.
 

wllm

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I’m not worried. Just think a lot of people have pretty a screwed up perspective on what they want the future to look like.

As I have said multiple times, 2800 may be possible, but stuff will need to get much worse that what we see now.
Here me out...

I think largely the break up of standard oil was a really good thing for the US energy industry. I think part of why we weathered the Russia/Saudi event was in part due to the fact of the large number of independents in the space.

Now, we talk about "too big to fail", really? Standard oil was a goliath and chopping it up was great for creating more jobs, innovation and long term stability.

Currently, APPL,MSFT,GOOG, and AMZN have a greater combined market cap than the entire US oil industry including the privates. You toss in Tesla and you're getting damn close to the combined global market cap the for entire industry.

My point, those companies fail and in the long run it might be a huge boone to societies + the market... but damn is in going to crater the averages for a while.
 

SAJ-99

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My point, those companies fail and in the long run it might be a huge boone to societies + the market... but damn is in going to crater the averages for a while.
Agree that they are all too big and smaller is better, albeit less efficient. But we, as citizens and consumers of the products, have tacitly approved that large structure. We just need to remember that if they "fail", it is rarely an idiosyncratic event like say an Enron. They fail for larger, more macro reasons. They all can't fail at once, which is what we were looking at in 2008.
 

rogerthat

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Agree that they are all too big and smaller is better, albeit less efficient. But we, as citizens and consumers of the products, have tacitly approved that large structure. We just need to remember that if they "fail", it is rarely an idiosyncratic event like say an Enron. They fail for larger, more macro reasons. They all can't fail at once, which is what we were looking at in 2008.
Yeah they could have. Would have changed things for sure but Wall Street isn’t Main Street. Money guys crack me up.
 

rogerthat

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“Too big to fail” and this idea that failure is bad is one of the key reasons I am rooting for a economic flush out. For the last 20 years, our government and society started to privatize gains and publicize the losses. This concept has accelerated and been bolstered in the last few years. This doesn’t lead to efficiency in an economy as the strong players are not rewarded while the weak players are flushed out. Instead you end up with a bunch of players taking excess risks while sticking their government payment hands out when things even get slightly tough. My point is further bolstered by the “money guys” on here starting to whine right now. Things haven’t even started to get tough yet. So that is why I would like to see some semblance of rational markets. Maybe that means some of the money guys can’t buy their third and fourth vacation homes. Sorry…not sorry
 

SAJ-99

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“Too big to fail” and this idea that failure is bad is one of the key reasons I am rooting for a economic flush out. For the last 20 years, our government and society started to privatize gains and publicize the losses. This concept has accelerated and been bolstered in the last few years. This doesn’t lead to efficiency in an economy as the strong players are not rewarded while the weak players are flushed out. Instead you end up with a bunch of players taking excess risks while sticking their government payment hands out when things even get slightly tough. My point is further bolstered by the “money guys” on here starting to whine right now. Things haven’t even started to get tough yet. So that is why I would like to see some semblance of rational markets. Maybe that means some of the money guys can’t buy their third and fourth vacation homes. Sorry…not sorry
Pretty much agree other than it has been going on a lot longer than 20yrs. I think it is called creative destruction. I’m not whining about declines. It just gives me a better entry point. I question those that seem to revel in the idea of a deep recession. You say you want “rational markets” but it appears you want to define rational. Right now the market is pricing in a more severe economic scenario. I just haven’t seen any economic data that says the economy is suffering, other than housing. I have joked that the market moves so fast now it will price in a recovery before the economic pain even starts.
 

rogerthat

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Pretty much agree other than it has been going on a lot longer than 20yrs. I think it is called creative destruction. I’m not whining about declines. It just gives me a better entry point. I question those that seem to revel in the idea of a deep recession. You say you want “rational markets” but it appears you want to define rational. Right now the market is pricing in a more severe economic scenario. I just haven’t seen any economic data that says the economy is suffering, other than housing. I have joked that the market moves so fast now it will price in a recovery before the economic pain even starts.
My rational markets comment was more in regards to the credit markets. The stock market will never really be all that rational but that’s just my opinion. This week has been a beat down even for conservatively structured ports. +2% to -2% in a week. Ouch
 

SAJ-99

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Inflation? Car market? Gone to the grocery store recently? Mortgage and rent assistance/deferment ending soon.

Layoffs starting...what other signs do you need?
Inflation is price. Price is the clearing point between supply and demand. Supply too low/demand too high causes prices to rise. It is not a sign of recession. It is a sign the economic is running too hot. Any forbearance and rent deferment ending might be a good thing in terms of inflation.

Layoffs? Weekly new claims was a pedestrian 213k. No sign of big layoffs in people filing unemployment claims. JOLTS data shows over 11m job openings. You could argue jobs is a lagging indicator, and I couldn't put up much of a fight. Maybe the next data point will show a cut in openings. It would make sense that for all the doom and gloom I hear from CEOs, the first thing they would do is stop hiring.

My point being, the news about a recession seems much more prevalent than the data showing a recession. The market is reacting sharply downward because no one wants to buy (see volume). We are in a really strange time and the market is sorting it out where things will go from here, but I don't think anyone should have high conviction of anything either direction.
 

npaden

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I wish I was sitting on a pile of cash right now like I was in 2009 and 2020 when I was able to swoop in and buy up a bunch of cheap stuff.

I've been looking for a used UTV and a used car for my teenage son and they just aren't out there right now at a price I'm willing to pay. 5 and 6 year old UTVs are selling for 80%+ of what the full retail price was when they came out. 3 and 4 year old cars are selling for 75%+ of what I can buy a brand new one for today if I order it and wait 3 months.

I still am not really seeing the recession in everyday life yet which tells me that we are probably going to see a bit more up on the interest rate. Part of what I'm seeing is that there are still billions of dollars on the last few spending bills that haven't made it through the system yet. I was just at a meeting talking about the 42 Billion still working it's way through for broadband infrastructure. That is enough money to put more fiber in the ground than there has been total fiber put in the ground since it was invented. That money isn't going to start coming through until late next year. Supply chain and available workforce were probably the two biggest discussion points.

Part of the inflation problem is still supply chain issues no doubt. I just don't see any other way for the Fed to fight inflation other than raising rates and I think it is going to take at least 2 more hikes to cool things off. The way it is going to go though is that some industries are going to get hurt quite a bit while others are going to be relatively untouched.
 

Flatrock

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Inflation is price. Price is the clearing point between supply and demand. Supply too low/demand too high causes prices to rise. It is not a sign of recession. It is a sign the economic is running too hot. Any forbearance and rent deferment ending might be a good thing in terms of inflation.

Layoffs? Weekly new claims was a pedestrian 213k. No sign of big layoffs in people filing unemployment claims. JOLTS data shows over 11m job openings. You could argue jobs is a lagging indicator, and I couldn't put up much of a fight. Maybe the next data point will show a cut in openings. It would make sense that for all the doom and gloom I hear from CEOs, the first thing they would do is stop hiring.

My point being, the news about a recession seems much more prevalent than the data showing a recession. The market is reacting sharply downward because no one wants to buy (see volume). We are in a really strange time and the market is sorting it out where things will go from here, but I don't think anyone should have high conviction of anything either direction.

Can't really argue there. The ISM Manufacturing Index is mostly hanging in there too.

To counter that, the Leading Economic Index is starting to show some signs of a slowdown. I can't speak about that with much knowledge but people who are much smarter than me are starting to show concern there. Have little idea if we're at a major inflection point right now but it sure feels like we could be.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 

SAJ-99

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Can't really argue there. The ISM Manufacturing Index is mostly hanging in there too.

To counter that, the Leading Economic Index is starting to show some signs of a slowdown. I can't speak about that with much knowledge but people who are much smarter than me are starting to show concern there. Have little idea if we're at a major inflection point right now but it sure feels like we could be.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
Just look at the components. It has a decent track record on correlating to GDP, but is not a great forward indicator for the market. In this case it just points out the weirdness of all the data.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.
 

Sytes

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Anyone with thoughts on Gold ETF's?

They're reaching a lucrative low, based on RSI even with comparison to 5 yr low, it still sitting at the buy level.

Specifically speaking of GLD. I'm not interested in physical gold. And, for myself, I'm interested in option calls.
I've played GLD 1-2 month repeatedly for the day/swing trade $ though contemplating ITM 6-12 month calls, holding them through 2/3rds give/take.
 

SAJ-99

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Anyone with thoughts on Gold ETF's?

They're reaching a lucrative low, based on RSI even with comparison to 5 yr low, it still sitting at the buy level.

Specifically speaking of GLD. I'm not interested in physical gold. And, for myself, I'm interested in option calls.
I've played GLD 1-2 month repeatedly for the day/swing trade $ though contemplating ITM 6-12 month calls, holding them through 2/3rds give/take.
I wish I could give some insight, but it is running a close race with Bitcoin in my most-hated trading category. Mostly because I lose money on it every time. GLD is certainly oversold, but is trading inversely to interest rates and the downtrend is pretty solidly established. I'm not sure what you need to make it change direction. More upside surprise in inflation? Even that hasn't helped it much lately. It might bounce from oversold but hard to say what makes it shine again (pun intended ;)).
 

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