Another Wyoming Draw/General tag question

JDH

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I'm trying to figure out how many NR general tags were issued this year. Do I need to combine the quota for the PP(1842) and random(614) drawings? I'm assuming if that is correct then if I want to calculate my overall odds I would add the first choice applicants that applied for both of those? I probably won't apply for the special draw so I want to take that out of the equation. Am I trying to over think this and should just be worrying about the quota of 1842 this year in the PP drawing?
I understand it changes from year to year but I'm just trying to get some general planning done.
 
Your odds depend substantially on how many points you have:

If 1.5 or more points, 100%. Meaning everybody with 2 or more points drew in the preference points portion of the draw (and all group applications where the average points was more than 1).

If 1 point, 100 drew out of 1247 first choice applicants, so 8%.

Then it gets a bit more tricky. Those 1147 people with 1 point who were left over, plus the 2552 people with less than a point all get thrown together in the random drawing. 1147 + 2552 = 3699. 3699 first choice applicants for 614 available tags, 16.6%.

So if you had 1 point you had an 8% chance to draw among the preference points, plus 16.6% of 92% (the remaining amount times the odds of drawing in the random). Total odds are 23.2% with 1 point.

If you had 0 points, your only chance to draw was in the random portion, so your odds were 16.6%.
 
Excellent synopsis dwm4375! This was the first year where guys that put in for the General tag as their second choice in the Special Draw didn't draw any tags, as last year it had gone to about 50% and went to 0 this year.
 
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Thanks! I couldn't figure out where the 3699 was coming from. I was trying to add up the special, regular, and random and couldn't get that number. I will have 1 point before next year so I think I will just apply for 3 hard to draw units in case I get lucky. If I don't get drawn I will look into the general units harder for 2018 and maybe put it as a first choice, or maybe get a few more points since 4-5 points seems to open up more units.
Thanks for the reply
 
There's never any point applying for 3 hard to draw units. The hard-to-draw units (for discussion this means they sell out in the preference point round) will not have any licenses left for the 2nd or the 3rd round. If you're just hoping to draw a great tag, apply for something with your first choice and hope you get lucky in the 25% random portion. In that case you might as well leave your 2nd and 3rd choice blank.

Your 2nd and 3rd choice tags (if you actually want to draw a tag and hunt) should be tags that still have something available for the 2nd or 3rd round. For an example, go to 2015 antelope non-resident random. Look at unit 001. There were 52 tags left over for the random portion, with no first choice applicants left. This means every 001 first choice got drawn, regardless of points. The 25 2nd choice and 1 3rd choice guys all drew, because 52 > 25 + 1

Look down a few lines to unit 006. 51 tags available, 97 1st choice, 46 2nd choice, and 40 3rd choice. All 51 tags will randomly go to the 97 people who had that for a 1st choice. There will be 0 left for the 2nd or 3rd choice applicants.

Going back to elk, pretty much all bull tags will sell out in the 1st choice. You could look for Type 4 cow tags to put for a 2nd choice. Those are antlerless tags that go through the preference point system. Type 6 cow/calf tags are a different (random only) drawing altogether.
 
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I don't think 4-5 points opens up much of anything, and certainly nothing that is any better than drawing a general tag.
 
I don't think 4-5 points opens up much of anything, and certainly nothing that is any better than drawing a general tag.

Agree 100%. You would be best to pick up a PP or two and hunt every couple years on a general tag while applying every year in hopes of drawing the random tag or decide to build PPs for a long time and not hunt anything but cows until you draw that one tag that may take forever. I just can't see starting out nowadays when a person is so far behind the top point holders that it will take many moons to even have a chance at anything other than a low to mid tier unit. The way the general tag has gone the last couple years unless you get lucky every year in the random draw it will take a couple points to draw the tag.
 
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I didn't think about leaving the last two blank. I've been out there for antelope once and put in a hard to draw 1st choice with a 100% draw 2nd and 3rd. I put a majority of my pre application planning into the second choice but making sure I knew enough about the 1st and 3rd choice just in case.
I am willing to not hunt there for a few years if it means I could draw a better unit - to a degree. I would definitely weigh the options of the lower tired units against the units in the general tag areas.
 
I'll add my .02 cents as my first post.
I applied for an elk tag this year in WY with 4 points. Last year with 4 points it was 100% draw odds in the regular draw in this particular unit. Well, I didn't get drawn this year. The points required for 100% draw went to 5 points I think. 4 points only gave me less than 40% chance to draw.
With the point creep the way it is, I wouldn't plan on building points for a LE unit in WY if you aren't already invested with 3-4 points. You may never build enough points to draw a tag and spend each season waiting and not hunting. Also, a LE tag guarantees nothing.
Good Luck
 
I'll add my .02 cents as my first post.
I applied for an elk tag this year in WY with 4 points. Last year with 4 points it was 100% draw odds in the regular draw in this particular unit. Well, I didn't get drawn this year. The points required for 100% draw went to 5 points I think. 4 points only gave me less than 40% chance to draw.
With the point creep the way it is, I wouldn't plan on building points for a LE unit in WY if you aren't already invested with 3-4 points. You may never build enough points to draw a tag and spend each season waiting and not hunting. Also, a LE tag guarantees nothing.
Good Luck

That's a good example of what we're saying if a person isn't fully up on how a system works and that you can't just look at what a unit took to draw last year and think it will stay static because in most cases it won't. You need to remember that people aren't bound to choosing one particular unit every year, thus maybe more apply for your chosen unit the year you do. Then you also need to look at the number of tags offered when the Final Regs are signed in late April and if the number goes down possibly modify your application to try for something that gives you a better chance of drawing if you see it looks shaky with your PP number.
 
Then you also need to look at the number of tags offered when the Final Regs are signed in late April and if the number goes down possibly modify your application to try for something that gives you a better chance of drawing if you see it looks shaky with your PP number.

That doesn't work for NR elk...any quota increase/decrease for elk happens after the NR elk tags are already drawn, mailed, and in hand.

It also doesn't do any good for the next year to "assume" that the early NR quotas will stay the same either...you may not even be able to apply for the tag as NR if the biologists decide not to offer it (if there is discussions about not having the season or if they aren't sure the commission will approve it),. Yes, it happens every year, and I can give specific examples of season types that were not offered to NR's this year, but were last year. The really chitty part about it, the tags that NR's were excluded from, will/could now ALL go to Residents.

I've also seen NR's excluded from new bull hunts that are approved after the commission meeting in April, again NR's were not even allowed to apply.

In an even more ridiculous scenario, that happened last year, NR tags were issued for a new proposed season that wasn't even approved by the commission yet!

I tell you what, the early NR elk draw is really f'ing things up for NR, R, and the GF as well. Last year NR's were over-issued about 600 tags and R's would have been shorted if not for myself and JM77 staying on top of it. Thankfully, JM77 found in regulation a way for the GF to issue another 600+ LE tags to residents.

Its going to change, just not sure when...

It makes no sense to have an early NR elk draw, none.
 
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I agree with you BuzzH and my post should have said that the modify/withdraw comment was in reference to deer and antelope at the present time since they have a 5/31 application closure/modify date after the Final Regs are signed. It will probably go to that for elk too the way it's looking if what I have heard from JM77 about the G&F being called out for violating their statute of having the elk draw before the Final Regs are signed goes through like it should. That may be as soon as the 2017 season and it wouldn't be too soon IMHO if they have not been in compliance with their own statute!
 
There's also the issue regarding the cost of holding a separate draw just specifically for NR elk.

The bottom line is that quotas and seasons should be SET before the application deadline. That way, everyone knows for sure what they're applying for, both R and NR. Then the R/NR quota splits happen based on commission approved quotas. Nobody is over or under-issued tags and all seasons are offered to all applicants.

The way it works now, every year, in areas with quota changes after the April Commission meeting, either R or NR are being cheated or over-issued LE tags.
 
I'll add my .02 cents as my first post.
I applied for an elk tag this year in WY with 4 points. Last year with 4 points it was 100% draw odds in the regular draw in this particular unit. Well, I didn't get drawn this year. The points required for 100% draw went to 5 points I think. 4 points only gave me less than 40% chance to draw.
With the point creep the way it is, I wouldn't plan on building points for a LE unit in WY if you aren't already invested with 3-4 points. You may never build enough points to draw a tag and spend each season waiting and not hunting. Also, a LE tag guarantees nothing.
Good Luck

My pronghorn unit went from leftovers to none the next year. I'll just buy a point and see where I stand next year.
 
I'm going to start buying points this year for elk. I've just started looking at wy website and i thought it said with one point last year there was around a 40% chance of drawing a general tag. I must have missed something. Is that just for residents maybe? Im nonresident. Thanks
 
Every year the odds are different (and usually lower) to draw any given tag with a specific number of points. That's just the nature of point systems where more people buy or accumulate points (thru not drawing) than draw tags and lose points. That describes most western states.
 
Great info in this thread thanks! I was fortunate to get in early enough and managed to draw General elk tags for the last two years (special draw, 0 points and then 1). But now am buying CO points as my second state to hunt, so I have the option of hunting elk every year.
 
I'm going to start buying points this year for elk. I've just started looking at wy website and i thought it said with one point last year there was around a 40% chance of drawing a general tag. I must have missed something. Is that just for residents maybe? Im nonresident. Thanks

1PP in the Regular PP Draw for 2015 was 40.29%, so you got that right. This year in the 2016 draw it was only 8.02%, so you can see how it went way down. The stats for the other 2016 draws was 16.6% in the Random, 49% in the Special Random, while with <1PP it was 100% in the Special Regular PP Draw and 31.62% with O PPs.
 
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