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Recent content by Stone_Ice_1

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    2024 Draw results

    17 points burned on elk for me. First elk permit for me. I can finally hunt the area I can see from my front door.
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    Statistics for differentiating between groups?

    Statistically 5 shots isn't enough. What if those 5 shots all went in the hole just on sheer luck. It's an extreme example but possible with only 5 shots. Think of it like flipping a coin. If you have a quarter and a penny and the quarter goes heads 5 times in a row and the penny goes heads...
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    Statistics for differentiating between groups?

    Statistics guy here. You definitely need more than 5 shots. I would suggest 20 as an absolute minimum. There are a lot of very complicated ways you can analyze this. But I would do as VikingsGuy suggested and just do a standard t-test. I did something similar many years ago in testing the...
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    Buying binos sucks

    I bought a pair of mid range Meoptas 2 years ago and have been very happy with them. I would be too afraid to get and use something like swaros. After spending all that money on something like that, I would be afraid to take them with me all the time in fear of losing them at some point.
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    Montana - Time to Shake it Up?

    How do we know what mule deer hunters and others see and want? We ask with surveys, and we listen when people come into our offices and show up at public meetings. Ba ha ha ha ha. This is the quote that is highlighted in big bold letters in the article. None of these things are true...
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    Montana Supertag Sales?

    They used to post the number of tags they sold every year. Then they quit doing it around 10 years ago. I suspect it has a lot to do with not wanting to show you the numbers to let you know you have basically 0 chance of getting one of these things. If I remember correctly that last time I...
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    Montana Block Management Thievery!

    There is more than one Sieben Ranch place. I think he got the HD messed up. There is one in another district nearby through Sieben where I have had the exact problem discussed. Called first morning right at opening time and told it was full. Actually I called, they said OK, put my name down...
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    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Once again, your odds of actually drawing don't change regardless of who draws the first tag because your odds are calculated before that happens. Research the Monte Carlo problem.
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    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    This is making it more complicated than it needs to be. Your odds of drawing are whatever they are at the beginning of the draw. You don't care what the odds change to after 1 ,2 or 100 people are selected. Think of it this way, you don't get to choose after they draw the 1st person if you...
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    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Well that's easy, I don't count NR's. They are a subhuman population and are disregarded. Seriously though, I kid about the NR's. There is only one draw for each animal and HD. So, there isn't something where one draw affects another. I think what you are referring to is how do I handle...
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    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Yes, this is true, PDF's are not user friendly at all. I only do it for Montana, as that is all I apply for so I don't have to worry about the various rules in other states. I am not familiar with the methods these companies use but I would be shocked if they use computer models and use...
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    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    You guys are nuts paying money for this, makes me think I should start a business creating these for people. Takes about 5 minutes to put together. I just have a simple excel spreadsheet that calculates all my draw odds for every species in Montana. Its just a simple calculation based off of...
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    FWP Bonus Point Sketchiness

    This is the biggest issue I have with bonus points. You have a better chance in your lifetime to draw than if there were no bonus points (for something like moose/sheep or some other hard to get tag). However as we get higher into the higher numbers with bonus points, the chances of a 15-25...
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    2023 Montana Bighorn Sheep Tag/Hunt...

    Great hunt and story. Hope I am lucky enough to get to do it some day.
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    2023 Montana Bighorn Sheep Tag/Hunt...

    Nice! Offseason entertainment and perfect timing to dream of actually drawing my own tag.
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